Saturday, February 7, 2015

Syriza swept to power pledging to rebuild Greece on four pillars - restarting the economy, regaining employment, transforming the political system and confronting the humanitarian crisis.
It has pledged to dramatically increase the minimum wage by over £100 a week, which was cut as part of the austerity programme and get 300,000 more people into work.
In a similar way to post-war Germany, Greece also wants Europe to write off most of its £240billion national debt.  The party also wants Germany to repay a loan that the Nazis forced the Bank of Greece to pay during the occupation and pay war reparations.  German Finance Minister Schaeuble has warned Greece over its negotiating tactics, saying the nation and the EU would not "be blackmailed".  In another newspaper interview this morning with Berliner Morgenpost, Chancellor Merkel said: "We - Germany and the other European partners - will now wait and see what concept the new Greek government come to us with."... However she added: "I don't see a further debt haircut". ... And as for demands over war reparations, she said: "This question doesn't arise."
New Greek PM Alexis Tsipras will visit Cyprus, Italy and France next week but there are no plans as yet to visit Germany. As well as scrapping some austerity measures demanded by the troika, such as a privatisation programme, Greece is now trying to negotiate with other EU members over its level of debt.  There are fears though that if Greece refuses to meet its debt demands, it could be forced out of the Eurozone.  Ms Merkel today said she wanted Greece to be successful and acknowledged "many people there have hard times behind them.  "The aim of our policies was and is for Greece to remain a part of the euro community permanently."

Friday, February 6, 2015

The problem with economists and journalists that report on economics is that they like simple, easy to understand, definitions and cannot think rationally if a definition is involved.  Take for instance deflation. Economists define deflation as inflation below o%. And although the only instance of real deflation was in 1930's USA, economists are almost united in saying it would be bad for any economy. Now, some countries in Europe that import every single drop of oil they use, had very low inflation. The recent steep fall in oil price meant that the economies of those countries were now officially in deflation and economists and journalists had a field day forecasting doom and gloom. Because the economies were in deflation.  But they forgot to include the reason for the fall into deflation into the equation.  Cheaper oil is a godsend to any economy dependent on oil imports, it is in no way a bad thing. It means cheaper transport, heating, manufacturing, farming, in fact cheaper everything that uses oil or oil derivatives.  But most economists and financial journalists, with their closed minds, can only see the minus sign in front of the inflation statistics and therefore denounce a bonanza as a catastrophe. The massive numbers of unemployed and underemployed, or those barely getting by on jobs in our neoliberal economic wonderland where living-wage salaries are a thing of the past, would welcome not having their purchasing power robbed by central bank debasement of the currency and asset bubbles, not to mention the unpayable debts they and their children are being saddled with by being forced to bail out financial speculators.

Thursday, February 5, 2015

Usually, deflation is defined as a contraction of the money supply. Lower prices are a consequence of that drop in money supply as there is less money chasing goods.   However, there is currently a contradiction in this definition as the money supply has never been greater, but that is because practically all of that money supply growth sits in banks and shores up their balance sheets, rather than entering the mainstream economy.   Western banks have chosen to hold onto that money because almost to a man, the banks are technically bankrupt already.  Its like there are two pots of money - the one in the banks and the one on the streets.  On the streets money is in short supply as wages flat line.  The good news is that deflation will help end the euro, which is simply a gangster racket now, to enrich elites and bankers at the expense of ordinary people. Hence Greece.
Let's hope it lasts long enough to end the euro ... Let Germany eat the same crap Greece has been eating for the last 5 years. Deflation and misery should be a constant German diet until the end of time.

Wednesday, February 4, 2015

Do we ever mention the dark secret about artificial interest rates? About obstructing the workings of the genius mind of the human race that we call the free market. When government gives away cheap money - using banks simply as storefront brokers, the story always has a sad outcome.  It's not their money, so the banks don't care at all about the eligibilty or the prospects of the borrowing businesses. You're in a dying industry? No problem. Have a few million to keep the operation going for a few more months. You know failure is inevitable, so be sensible and pocket as much as possible.  With free market interest rates, the banks are putting their own money on the line. They want a decent return, and they want to know the borrower is a competent operator in a viable industry.  That means higher interest rates - and it means resources directed toward high-growth sectors (and away from the weak and moribund). This obviously contributes to a higher overall economic growth rate - whereas easy money puts us on a long-term low growth trend line.
Look at Japan and Europe to see what happens when you treat a hangover with more booze. You get a decrepit alcoholic.  You must take a bit of pain to rise again - and the occassional downturn is vital to preserving the essential institutions that provide real security and comfort and sustenance to the human being - religion, the family and the local community. Socialism and government intervention in general undermine these institutions - bringing isolation and misery for the individual, and collapse of civilised society... And the reactions of the online article's German readers are also very eloquent - deep anger and dismay from all, and some of the darkest prophesies I have ever seen in the FAZ comments section: their articulacy puts the DT comments pages to shame.  It's interesting that Merkel has waited until now to allow Draghi to make this QE happen - in a year (2015) that sees - I believe - only two German regional elections, Hamburg and Bremen, both cities ruled by the SPD, and in neither of which the CDU would expect to win in any case.  Merkel is quite keen on power: and for all her contempt for her fellow European political leaders and their 'local problems', is extremely careful to ensure she is protected against such problems herself....So - what's going to happen in Greece?  The ECB is going to give the Greek Central Bank bucketloads of money to go out and buy Greek bonds, flooding the Greek economy with liquidity?  The problem isn't one of liquidity. 
The problem that the Euro is at a level which has rendered the Greek economy uncompetitive. Only a massive fall in the Euro would help the Greeks. This isn't going to happen, so the problem remains, unsolved.

Tuesday, February 3, 2015

Translation: Tsipras took money under the table to sell out his supporters and his nation.

"The new Syriza-led government has demanded some form debt write-off on the country's €317bn liabilities, two-thirds of which are owned to official creditors in the form of the EU and the IMF."
"Prime Minister Tsipras says a debt deal is imminent and there is "no way" Greece will not fulfill obligations to the Troika".  "The battle lines between Greece and its creditors were drawn in Athens as the Greek finance minister announced that the new government would refuse to engage with representatives of the country’s hated troika of lenders."  "Greece's new prime minister has insisted his country will fulfil all of its loan obligations to creditors as it appointed private bank Lazard ahead of crunch talks with the Troika."  Confused? You should be.   Greece's new prime minister has insisted his country will fulfil all of its loan obligations to creditors as it appointed private bank Lazard ahead of crunch talks with the Troika.    In a statement released earlier, Alexis Tsipras said: "I am absolutely confident that we will soon manage to reach a mutually beneficial agreement, both for Greece and for Europe as a whole."  "No side is seeking conflict and it has never been our intention to act unilaterally on Greek debt."  Mr Tsipras said his commitment to end austerity and kickstart growth in the country, "in no way entails that we will not fulfill our loan obligations to the ECB or the IMF."  His comments came after German Chancellor Angela Merkel ruled out the possibility of debt forgiveness for Greece's new government, insisting that the indebted country should abide by the terms of its bailout arrangement....The stand-off between Greece and its creditors escalated on Friday after Yanis Varoufakis, Greece's new finance minister, ruled out any cooperation with the country's Troika of lenders, calling them a “rottenly constructed committee."  Anti-austerity Syrzia campaigned on the platform of staying within the euro and agreeing better terms on which it can service its debt.  Chancellor Merkel said Europe would stand by Greece should it continue to meet the conditions of its bailout.  "The aim of our policy was and is that Greece remains permanently part of the euro community," said Ms Merkel.  "Europe will continue to show its solidarity with Greece, as with other countries hard hit by the crisis, if these countries carry out reforms and cost-saving measures."  At over 175pc of its national output, Greece's debt mountain is the highest in the Eurozone.

 

Monday, February 2, 2015

European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi unveiled bigger-than-expected quantitative easing measures on Thursday but still faced a fierce fight from Germany over any policy that could mutualise debt in the eurozone.  "The combined monthly purchases of public and private sector securities will amount to €60bn euros,” said Mr Draghi at a press conference following a meeting of the ECB’s governing council.  “They are intended to be carried out until end-September 2016 and will in any case be conducted until we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation," he added, meaning the package will amount to at least €1.1 trillion.  Mr Draghi’s package of asset purchases, including bonds issued by national governments and EU institutions such as the European Commission, is intended to boost the eurozone’s flagging economy and to ward off the spectre of deflation.  It took a dramatic toll on the euro, which dropped to an 11-year low against the dollar at $1.14. ....A trillion euros here, a trillion euros there... Before you know where you are, you;re talking real money....And still the fantasy rolls on...that somehow things will be OK in the end with the single currency, despite individual countries having different tax and fiscal regimes, different industrial, agricultural and commercial capacity, different wage and benefits structures...the list goes on and on. We all know that the Eurocrats love the idea of a superstate, and that such arrangement is the only way a single currency can work. Unfortunately for these dreamers, there are several problems along the way - by and large voters don't want it, national governments don't wish to lose power, the countries have wide differences in social and economic outlook. Fiddling the figures to pretend that certain late entrants to the Euroclub met the necessary requirements for entry was the beginning of the end of any credibility in the project. Doubtless QE will be another nail in its coffin. Little wonder that all the big banks have dusted off their plans for a return to the mark, franc, peseta, drachma et al... So much for German law and High Court. They'll do their usual faux debate, issue more faux warnings, etc. They have nothing better to offer. They look at the Dresden marches and see the ghost of old Prussia, Most Germans would sooner join Islam. What Draghi did is completely illegal, but it saves the Union. It was wink-wink from Berlin all along. Mutti has things under control, and Germans' only fear is that Mutti will step down. Last week the Reich outlawed marches offensive to violent religions--much to the relief of most Germans. Dhragi thus saves beer, bratwurst, cars for the foreseeable future, the past remains buried--which means no more Israeli blackmail--and beyond that a German has no business thinking about. Meanwhile, the Project shrugs and drags its carcass on to the next crisis. Like the Plague, all it has to do is stay alive for its next victim.

Sunday, February 1, 2015

Greeks are threatened by the ultra-corrupt and greedy EU Commission - that if they DARE to retrieve their democracy from the slimy coils of the EU's French and German Banks - they will all starve to death. Germany can bark all they want, but the EU will fold in the end rather than absorb a Greek exit. The EU may have moved on, but the economic consequences of Grexit would still be severe and it would fuel anti-euro, and more particularly anti-German, sentiment in other states suffering through austerity. Spain goes to the polls in December, at the latest, and it's been almost two years since the last Italian elections so we can expect one any day now. Germany's problem is that they tied their fate to a cluster of incredibly corrupt and dysfunctional nations in the arrogant hope that their much-lauded efficiency would somehow rub off on their neighbours. Now they're in the uncomfortable position of either paying the bills or destroying their own economy and everybody knows it.  That is the EU's bottom line. However, if one looks at life in Greece for most of its people TODAY - at the soup kitchen queues going round the block, at the hungry children, at pensioners dying of starvation - at the nearly 60% joblessness of the young - there is NO HOPE!
Going it alone - IS a MUCH better alternative.
Greece could be back to prosperity in 10 years.
If Greece stays with the EU and its toxic euro - in 20 years time - Greece will be in a worse position than now.  Schauble and his thugs paint their own picture.  Matthe talks of 'Punishment".
The EU and the euro is a dirty stain on the history of the nations of Europe and it will go