Monday, July 27, 2015

No one who understands the EU and how it operates, can understand why people say they would like to stay in it. There is one possible answer which is, the people being asked have no idea what the EU is or what it does. If before a person is allowed to express an opinion they were asked to name the president of the EU Commission or the President of the EU Council or the President of the EU Parliament, maybe that qualifying question would weed out the people with informed opinion from the people who have no idea what the question being asked is all about....The reason why the EU is popular right now, is because everyone can see where a grandstanding negotiation tactic got Greece in the meeting with Juncker. A man you call ridiculous. Frankly, he appears more like a man with no time for non-sense. Whether it comes out of London or Athens he will have no non-sense, and any attempt at hard-line negotiation will lead in a worse deal. The playing field is very asymmetric. Britain has a lot more to lose from no deal than the EU. People are coming to realize that. People feel the bite of austerity. Just imagine how easier it would have been to balance the budgets if the UK had French borrowing costs....I'm curious as to why the EU is supposed to becoming more popular in the UK in the face of continued EZ crisis and failure like the unworkable third Greek bailout, the curse of continuing mass unemployment in the Club Med countries, the growing division in the EZ, the continued isolation of the UK and the total reluctance to negotiate better terms on UK membership. In short the EZ, and with it the EU, is in a bad place which is getting worse. So why is the EU apparently getting more popular in the UK?  The only logical reason the EU can be getting more popular in the UK is that the majority of us enjoy watching the EU tear itself apart whilst our own economy with our own currency is becoming relatively stronger....European elections are a joke. The majority of MEPs are there BECAUSE they support the project of One-Party European governance by the Commission. The 30% that protested were just making a futile gesture. Come on. That is no more a parliament than the Supreme Soviet was. The EU cannot last on that basis. Nor will it reform.

Sunday, July 26, 2015

I just wanted to clarify a few things that keep cropping up in some of the commentators’ posts:
The Greek PM explained everything in a TV interview in Greece a couple of days ago: Grexit was never his intention, the referendum aimed at raising awareness of the fact that Europe has a hard nucleus (Germany) and everything else is controlled from there. He hopes for a more balanced Europe in the future (where more lefty parties join in, eg the Spanish Podemos), he said that the negotiations were extremely tough and twice both him and Merkel (if I remember correctly) nearly left the room because they couldn't agree and were called back in the room by Trusk (??? Sorry, not sure if the surname is correct…), that he never had a plan B and that he never had offers from Russia or China for help.  In the end, he tried to get the best deal for his country (managed to negotiate around 14 out of 20 reforms) and although the measures are extremely tough, he will do his best to implement them.  Regarding Greece leaving the Euro, he looked at a document given there with all the financial consequences and he said that they would be disastrous. The country is not prepared.
This is what I understood anyway.  Until very recently the northern Europeans were completely unaware of Greek culture & society which allowed Greeks to constantly go on about how they invented, democracy, philosophy etc. Now we know that that was 2000 years ago and that what we are dealing with now is more like (in fact very much like) Macedonia, Albania and Bulgaria. Corruption, clientelism and tribalism are rife. This Balkan form of organisation works to an extent but it can't provide the standard of living that Greeks have come to expect after 30 years of "money for nothing". That is why they only have two options: stay in the euro (and change dramatically over the next few years in order to find a societal, economic and political organisation that can sustain high standards of living) or leave (in which case they can do whatever they like but most likely will suffer a drop in living standards which will bring them in line with their immediate neighbours).
It is correct though, that the current mess is also, to a large extent down to the constant cash injections Greece has received from ignorant westerners. First because they wanted to revive ancient Greeks, then because they wanted to mess with the Ottomans, then to keep the communists out and finally (the chain of justifications comes full circle) because Greece (or rather the symbolism that it represents) is an integral part of our European identity.

Saturday, July 25, 2015

The US Federal Reserve plans to raise interest rates this year on the back of an improving American economy, and that is taking the shine off gold. ... Why? Because gold is a store of wealth for investors, but generates no returns from regular interest payments or dividend income. Investors have been happy to park their money in gold over the past six years while returns from other 'safe haven' assets have remained low and the economic backdrop has remained volatile. But, with borrowing costs set to rise, commodities, such as gold, are losing favor with investors, as higher returns can start to be generated elsewhere. The UK interest rate is 0.5pc. In the US, the interest rate, set by the Federal Reserve, is 0.25pc. US Federal Reserve chairman Janet Yellen has suggested interest rates should rise by the end of the year, while Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, also signaled that UK interest rates could begin to rise around the beginning of 2016, if not earlier. .. The US dollar has been growing stronger, boosted by a resurgent American economy and the prospect for a rate rise in the next few months. The US dollar index, which tracks the price of the US dollar against the world’s currencies, has increased by more than 20pc within the past year.   The value of the US dollar typically follows an inverse relationship with commodities. When the dollar strengthens against other major currencies, the prices of commodities - such as gold - typically drop. When the dollar weakens, commodities generally move higher. The main reason for this is because most commodities are freely traded in international markets and prices are quoted in US dollars.  Foreign buyers will purchase commodities with dollars, so, when the value of the dollar drops, they will have more buying power, and demand increases. Similarly, when the value of the dollar rises, they have less buying power and commodities become more expensive, muting demand and sending commodity prices lower. .. The slowdown in the Chinese economy, the world's largest consumer of commodities, has also caused the gold price to fall steadily since 2011.  China has increased its reserves of gold bullion by 60pc since 2009. However, on Friday the People’s Bank of China revealed it has been buying far less gold than expected. China updated its gold bullion reserves for the first time since 2009 last week, showing that while reserves had increased, the 57pc gain to 1,658 metric tons was smaller than the 3,500 tons analysts had been expecting.

Friday, July 24, 2015

I'm not sure the Germans will see  - between Draghi, the IMF, the US, the French, the FT, the Economist etc etc the pressure on them for debt relief is coming up fast. It was a calm delivery, but like a stiletto between the shoulder blades. Given the Germans have conceded maturity extension is legally possible, that is where Draghi and the IMF are positioning the debate. The question is whether the maturity extension is so great as to amount to an enormous upfront write off of not. The Germans say not. But as I read it 2 out of 3 of the Troika - the IMF and ECD - are clear it needs to be the former, and of the EU the governments are split with some like France and Italy going with the ECB and IMF, and some with the Germans in resisting that. With the Bundestag out of the way the pressure will mount enormously in coming weeks, especially with the IMF's not so subtle threat it will not be joining the bailout if this is not addressed. At this moment it looks like the Germans, after all, could be the big losers. And my suspicion is, reading Draghi, they will fear that too, and be furious. The great irony is it was the Germans who insisted on having the IMF in the deal over Tsipras' objections.

Thursday, July 23, 2015

The desperately needed bridge finance will give Greece breathing space as it embarks on the tortuous process of agreeing a three-year bailout that could be worth up to €86bn.
Around €50bn is likely to come from the eurozone’s permanent bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism, which on Friday gave its approval for talks to commence.  The formal launch of talks on a three-year bailout comes after the Bundestag and other eurozone parliaments, including those in Austria, France and Finland, voted in favour of opening negotiations with Greece.  Germany, Greece’s largest creditor, has so far resisted large-scale debt relief and is implacably opposed to any step that could lead to reducing Greece’s debts. Schäuble argues that any reduction in Greece’s debts – known as a “haircut” – would be illegal under EU law.  The German finance ministry has said that giving Greece more time to pay its debts is a possibility but maintains that Greece’s current level of borrowing would be bearable if the country reformed its economy to spur economic growth.
The creditors have effectively set themselves a deadline of 20 August to resolve this argument. By that date Greece must repay €3.2bn to the ECB, but all emergency bridging finance will be exhausted by the end of July.  The €7bn bridging loan paves the way for an elaborate exercise in international shuffling of cash from one creditor to another.  Greece will use part of the €7bn from the EU to repay €4.2bn to the European Central Bank on Monday. Failure to make this payment could have forced Greece out of the eurozone. It will use another tranche of the loan to repay €2bn to the IMF to clear arrears, freeing the fund to lend Greece more money.

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Grecia a achitat Fondului Monetar Internațional o serie de arierate în valoare totală de aproximativ două miliarde de euro și nu se mai află în incapacitate de plată. Anunțul a fost făcut de purtătorul de cuvânt al FMI, Gerry Rice, transmit Deutsche Welle și Reuters.'Prin urmare, Grecia nu mai are datorii restante către FMI', a explicat Gerry Rice. Acesta a adăugat: 'Așa cum s-a anunțat, FMI este gata să continue să asiste Grecia în eforturile de redresare a economie și de revenire a stabilității financiare'.  Luni, Grecia a plătit luni 4,2 miliarde de euro, reprezentând principalul și dobânzile dintr-un împrumut acordat anterior de BCE, și a rambursat un credit de 500 milioane de euro către Banca Centrală a Greciei.
Reprezentanții creditorilor internaționali (UE, BCE și FMI) și ai fondului de salvare al zonei euro (ESM) se vor afla în curând la Atena, a anunțat luni purtătorul de cuvânt al executivului european, Margaritis Schinas, transmite Agerpres.

Tuesday, July 21, 2015

The Federal Reserve is still on course to raise interest rates this year, as delays could mean the central bank is forced to hike more rapidly than it is safe later, its chairman has said.
Janet Yellen indicated that delaying increases in interest rates would mean that the central bank could "have to do so more rapidly" if caught behind the curve.   In her testimony before the Senate Committee on Banking on Wednesday, she said that if the economy progresses as expect, "economic conditions would make it appropriate at some point this year to raise" the Fed's key interest rate. ...Ms Yellen said: "The situation in Greece remains difficult. And China continues to grapple with the challenges posed by high debt, weak property markets and volatile financial conditions."   Mr Page said that the central bank would most likely start to raise its rates in September, but that it is not expect to clearly signal this until closer to that date. The Fed chairman remarked that "economic growth abroad could also pick up more quickly than observers generally anticipate, providing additional support for US economic activity".   Yellen has no intention of raising rates, as to do so would implode the asset bubbles and Ponzi schemes that allow the most efficient looting and asset stripping of the 99% by the Fed's oligarch accomplices. As long as ZIRP and QE can be maintained, savers and pensioners will be forced into the Wall Street-Federal Reserve Rigged Speculative Casino, where they can be fleeced at will by Yellen's Wall Street co-conspirators. So ignore the incessant droning by Yellen & other Fed mouthpieces about raising rates - it will not happen unless and until Yellen has to invervene to stop a dollar crash. The Fed's War on Savers and the responsible has no end in sight.