Tuesday, August 18, 2015

There's an interesting symmetry between the Greek and German parliaments. So far, Syriza has lost a chunk of its own MPs during debates, but it's counted on the support of the Opposition to get through its prior actions (at least, the selected few measures it's presented so far). The angry mob outside the Vouli is ignored.Merkel too knows that even with the angry dissent of many of 'her own' CDU MPs she has the supine SPD as part of the Grand Coalition, jumping nearly as high as she dictates, with only the unpopular Gyzi and die Linke opposing her.  That the Bundestag is acting against the will of 85% of the German people seems not to worry its MPs at all.  Only concerted opposition from CDU and SPD against their own leaderships would change anything in the Bundestag. or new elections.
Ditto in Greece,, It seems Greek MPs are also "completely in the dark" about whether Greece will receive any debt relief - and if yes, when. I've just got off the phone with Costas Lapavitsas, a Syriza MP and professor of economics at SOAS university in London, who has described today's agreement in principle as "outrageous", misleading and based on policies that have failed over the past five years.  He described claims by officials that Greece will avoid austerity measures worth around €20bn because of the relaxed primary surplus targets attached to the new debt deal as "wrong".

Monday, August 17, 2015

Finland could stay out of a planned third bailout deal for Greece, the Nordic country's Eurosceptic foreign minister said on Saturday, amid calls from his nationalist party, The Finns, for a more critical stance toward the EU.  Finland has taken one of the hardest lines against bailouts among euro zone members, and got even tougher in May when The Finns joined a new center-right coalition. Of course we can stay out of (the third bailout), that is possible," Timo Soini told Reuters on the sidelines of his party's congress.  "We're really out of patience ... Our government has a very tight policy on this. We will not accept increasing Finland's liabilities, or cuts in Greece's debts."  Athens is racing to wrap up agreement on a bailout worth up to 86 billion euros within days, hoping to receive a first disbursement in time to make a debt repayment to the European Central Bank.  Finland has said it could accept a deal under which the EU's bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism, would be used only within its current capacity.  At a meeting of euro zone finance ministers last month, Finland supported the idea of a temporary 'Grexit' - Greece leaving the bloc - but eventually accepted that new loan talks could begin.  "If we vote against a deal, it goes to the emergency procedure, and a package is implemented regardless of us," Soini said, referring to a clause in the fund that allows measures to be passed without unanimous approval if stability is deemed to be at risk.  "I don't believe that this (bailout) policy will provide solutions, and I think that, in the longer term, 'Grexit' is the most likely scenario."  Soini's party, formerly known as True Finns, has risen from obscurity within just a few years to become the second-biggest parliament group in an election last April.   Its criticisms of the EU and its calls for tougher restrictions on immigration have resonated among many citizens as Finland struggles with recession and rising unemployment.
But the party had to make compromises as it agreed for the first time to enter government, teaming up with millionaire prime minister Juha Sipila's Centre party and the pro-EU National Coalition party.  Lately, The Finns has stirred controversy with a Facebook post by one of its lawmakers that called for a fight against multiculturalism.  The congress on Saturday re-elected Soini as party leader, but replaced one of his three deputies with hardline EU opponent Sebastian Tynkkynen, who said the party should not soften its positions.  "We must start thinking whether we should be in government at any cost," Tynkkynen said.  "The party must become more critical towards the EU, and demand the return of an independent monetary policy."  Erkka Railo, a political scientist at the University of Turku, said he believed the compromises that had to be made in government would inevitably cost The Finns some of their support.  "Nevertheless, the party has established its position and will probably be a significant force in politics for years to come," he said.

Sunday, August 16, 2015

Chinese policymakers have been engaged in a gargantuan effort to switch their export-dependent economy, reliant on volatile international demand, to another engine: consumer spending at home. At the same time, they are battling to bring more competition and free market approaches to stodgy state industries; and to tackle the legacy of an unsustainable borrowing binge, including bubbles in the property and stock markets.  These would be a formidable set of challenges for any political leaders, and while the state of the Chinese economy is hard to assess, a number of warning signs have been flashing, including a share price plunge on a scale reminiscent of the US’s 1929 Wall Street crash and most recently, an 8.3% drop in exports in July.  Official figures show GDP growth in line with Beijing’s 7% target; but Fathom’s analysts, who study other measures, such as electricity usage and freight volumes, say it appears to be closer to 4%. Britton describes the depreciation as “China, doubling-down on its bet,” and warned: “If we are right about the hardness of the landing they’re facing, you ain’t seen nothing yet.”  Adam Posen, of the Peterson Institute of International Economics in Washington, says China’s motivation may only become clear over time, but markets will be asking themselves “is depreciation a side-effect of liberalization or is liberalization cover for devaluation?”  But whatever the reasons behind it, Beijing’s economic gear shift will have far-reaching effects. Not everyone is as apocalyptic as Edwards; but he believes the new wave of deflation emanating from China could “overwhelm already struggling corporate profitability and take us back into outright recession”.  “As investors realize yet another recession beckons, without any normalization of either interest rates or fiscal imbalances in this cycle, expect a financial market rout every bit as large as 2008.”

Saturday, August 15, 2015

The faceless money men invent billions of Euros at the press of a button to lend the the Greeks - when (not if) they default, real Greek assets - gold, mortgage books, land, will have to be handed over as "repayment" - good business if you can get it. The Greeks will not be allowed to default until the country is stripped bare of all assets. This is the monitory system we now operate - money as debt...Please note that the Germans have "tabled the idea of a second €5bn bridging loan in order to extend talks with Athens. " The idea being to show the German taxpayer that all non-EZ countries will be forced to subsidise what is a solely EZ problem in order to save the blushes of Frau Merkel, by once again using the EFSM. As per usual we will hear all sorts of nonsense about how they are protecting the UK taxpayers' money by... giving more of it to the EU. At what point will they realise that this is all they want the UK in the EU for, money and nothing else. All of the nonsense that Cameron et alia spout about the UK being at the heart of the EU is worthless, it is time to leave this fatally flawed institution.  How the supposedly left wing anti-Capitalist Greek government cannot see this I do not know. Defaulting is the Greeks' only hope - but they will not be allowed to.  The biggest victim of a cut in Greek defense spending wil be the German armaments industry who foisted their goods on the country in the first place. In fact the whole of German manufacturing will be affected by guts in Greek spending. Why don't the German banks just cut out the middle man and just buy German goods directly rather that go to the bother of lending the Greek government money which ot just gives to the population to buy German cars and then take a hair cut on the loans! It's a pretty old trick. Disguise the real problem by burying it inside a pile of bullshit.  It's fraud and if any euro country accepts the terms of this fairy story, they are guilty of financial deception.  This is such a shameless distortion of monetary discipline that the perpetrators can have no possible creditworthiness in the governance of the European Union, and if the Chinese wish to waste their currency on the Greek problem, more fool them  And they are no fools, so I don't believe the scaremongering put about by the Americans....The Greeks are playing another blinder here. The EU and their stupid qualified majority mechanism are poised to repeat their earlier blunders - again. Do they really think that Greece is ever going to be a successful eurozone member? Of course they don't, they just can't stomach the thought of the euro being reversible. Whatever they are doing for Greece it certainly isn't out of any sense of goodwill towards them.

Friday, August 14, 2015

Airbus has won a patent for a hypersonic passenger plane, but Concorde’s hydrogen-powered successor is unlikely to leave the drawing board any time soon.  The proposed airplane would cut the journey time from Paris to Tokyo from 12 to under three hours. The idea, first published in 2011, is to use three different kinds of engine power to jump above the atmosphere while still using regular runways for takeoff. It has now won approval from the US Patent Office.  The concept comes as commercial space companies such as Virgin Galactic pursue plans for low-level space flights. Airbus’s proposed plane has “gothic delta wings” that echo the elegant curves of Concorde ... But Airbus dampened any hopes of a quick return to the days of the Anglo-French supersonic jet, which was taken out of service in 2003 owing to high operating costs.  “Airbus Group and its divisions apply for hundreds of patents every year in order to protect intellectual property,” a spokesman said. “These patents are often based on R&D concepts and ideas in a very nascent stage of conceptualization, and not every patent progresses to becoming a fully realized technology or product.”  By climbing almost vertically, the new “ultra-rapid air vehicle’s” designers hope to avoid the supersonic boom that hampered Concorde’s deployment beyond the North Atlantic, where it flew at twice the speed of sound for more than 20 years.

Thursday, August 13, 2015

FOCUS ON  PORTUGAL - The imbalance of the Euro between rich and poor countries has acerbated and wrecked the Portugese industries of tourism, and of clothes and shoes from cheap Chinese imports into Europe. The debt is unsustainable and to add any more austerity simply makes it worse. It will, along with Greece, need a massive debt forgiveness to solve its problems, and this will happen as sure as night follows day, and Merkel and Germany will have to swallow it whole.  I should mention the accelerating decline in the population, and particularly the working age population who actually pay most of the taxes (when they can find jobs that is). Since population size is a significant indicator of GDP ( eg less people equals less demand for all sorts of goods and services from food to haircuts, housing and furniture to put in it etc) this is going to be perhaps the major long term issue for Portugal.  This is driven by two factors. The first is that birthrate has been barely half that required to maintain a steady population level for the whole of this century and the second is substantial emigration, especially of graduate level young people who also happen to be just in the age range that provides the majority of children. For a short while the increasing longevity the large number born born from the 1940's to the 1970's is masking what is already certain to happen. But we already know the number of people aged 0-20 years old is barely half that of a generation ago and its thus inevitable that there will be a totally unavoidable drop in the working population for at least the next generation and also because there will be far fewer 20-40 year olds in this period there will also be yet again even fewer children born to them. When you add in the high level of immigration to this the numbers are truly frightening- well they should be if any politician cared to take notice!  Demographics is a much ignored and yet very hard to reverse adverse trend that is going to have an unavoidable impact on many European countries. Portugal is probably the most critical but Italy, Germany and to a lesser extent Spain are all going to have a chronic problem emanating from this for decades to come...THE FACT that the IMF is still working with Portugal is a good sign. I just wonder if Portugal could get the same interest rates and terms that Greece is being offered if its debt situation would be so dire. For example, the Portugese government could, much as China is trying to do, consolidate debt and rationalize industry through debt exchanges with the Central government offering low cost loans to solid Portugese companies to take over the zombie firms or refinancing consumer and business loans.

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

At the moment the Greek government receipts are used to pay for  pensions and public salaries. Afterwards there is practically no money left to pay for social, health, education, traffic, communication,  military etc.  All these items are paid by credits from partners. Interests and debt  repayment is only done by partners.  Without a "haircut" on pensions and public salaries Greece has not even a slight chance to survive..."To relieve the present exigency is always the object which principally interests those immediately concerned in the administration of public affairs. The future liberation of public revenue they leave to the care of posterity." -Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations (1776) 2010. Greece was about to default on its debts. As usual, politicians and bureaucrats blamed everyone but the perpetrators — the politicians and bureaucrats. They claimed that the only way to relieve the crisis of debt was debt itself.  Problem: An excess of borrowing behavior by Greeks.
Goal: To have saved the Big Banks, mainly in France and Germany. Plan: To allow Greeks to default to non-banking creditors; have the European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund lend even more money to Greece in order to give Big Banks time to rid themselves of basically worthless Greek debt; then, when Greece finally defaults, charge the taxpayers in the European Union, that phony paradise of united social democracies, for the losses to the ECB and IMF. Measurement: Success for bankers, bureaucrats, and politicians. Failure for taxpayers. There were alternatives more fair and just; for example, see "Debt & the Race to the Bottom" at ... http://nationonfire.com/catego... In 2015. Greece defaults. Consequence? Another rescue from the EU in exchange for more Greek promises.