The Eurozone has no fire-power to strengthen. QE has failed because they are already mired deep in a Japanese style deflation trap to which there is no easy escape. Draghi's peashooter has allowed them to standstill for a few months and nothing more. The only thing to be done now is to forcibly devalue the currency and drive it through dollar parity as policy. This is what is necessary to re-establish inflation and growth on the continent. This would be European style economics but may be the only way to save the euro. It must be done now though. The alternative is a slow death and definitely lose the euro. My bet is that the Europhiles cannot face up to what they have done and will therefore opt to do nothing. So it will be the slow death then...the Central Banks are in trouble...and relying on Draghi's monthly or quarterly QE payroll. It's as simple as that. Deflation will hit their books hard. Notice the pressure on Banks to impose charges, more now than ever before. As for Deutsche Bank; it's all their satellites that will feel the pinch....something that Merkel has overlooked at her peril....There is no money. Nobody can buy anything so nobody can sell anything so there is no growth and all kinds of social bills still to be paid through more borrowing along with all the previous debt service costs. Reciprocal debt forgiveness: for some nations temporary retreat from an utterly inappropriate €conomic instrument used as a political weapon that has failed on both battlefields: sustainable, as equable as possible, benefit reduction and an opening of the democracy door to all of the peoples with the same voting weight at all levels are the only answers now. But I think the burden is too great and it is too late, especially with the utterly divisive irritant of the imperial court's decrees on immigration to add to the stew....The ECB printing up more trillions of fiat currency to lavish on their .1% cronies in the financial sector "to combat deflation" (and buy up the distressed assets of the increasingly pauperized middle and working classes at fire sale prices) - my, how groundbreaking. Remind me again of the clinical definition of insanity.
Wednesday, October 28, 2015
Tuesday, October 27, 2015
OOHHH - YESSS - Another step in the collapse of the euro....
Poland consolidated its rightwing shift on Sunday as exit polls showed voters had handed an absolute majority in its parliamentary election to Law and Justice, a Eurosceptic party that is against immigration, wants family-focused welfare spending and has threatened to ban abortion and in-vitro fertilisation. The current ruling party, Civic Platform, conceded defeat following the first exit poll, published by Ipsos moments after polling stations closed at 9pm (8pm GMT), which gave the national conservative Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (Law and Justice party) 39.1% of the vote, putting it far ahead of Civic Platform on 23.4%. Jarosław Kaczyński, Law and Justice’s chairman and the twin brother of Poland’s late president Lech, immediately declared victory...the result would give Law and Justice 242 seats in the 460-member lower house of parliament, meaning the party could govern alone and that its lead candidate, 52-year-old Beata Szydło, is likely to be appointed prime minister...“If Law and Justice end up governing alone with an allied president, Poland will become another Hungary,” said Prof Radosław Markowski of the Polish Academy of Sciences, a reference to the extremist rightwing views of the Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán...Most of Europe is moving to the Right. Euroscepticism and anti-immigration feelings are running at an all-time high. Even in liberal nations like Sweden where the politicians are grimly trying to maintain open door policies, the ordinary citizens are heading in another direction entirely, and showing their distaste for such policies by burning down refugee camps and (regrettably) going into schools and killing immigrants. Merkel is becoming increasingly isolated and reviled - even by many German citizens. If ever proof was needed that multiculturalism is a failed social experiment - we now have it writ large. I feel a BREXIT coming on. And it feels good....HAHAHA...Merkel should threaten Poland with Pexit until they learn to vote in the correct party.
Monday, October 26, 2015

Sunday, October 25, 2015

The eurozone’s return to negative inflation is driven by cheaper energy costs, which fell 8.9% year-on-year following the tumble in oil prices. This countered a 1.2% rise in service sector prices, and a 1.4% rise in food, alcohol and tobacco costs.
Saturday, October 24, 2015

The British people are very misunderstood on the continent. I have heard it said that the Dutch are the only people to truly understand them, although I have little idea why.
The fact is that the British people have already made up their minds about the EU and we will be leaving. I expect a majority in the realm of 60-70% in favour of doing so. Ignore opinion polls that suggest that the vote will be close because it will not. The europhile campaign is actually in full swing but the British people are ignoring them. We are just not listening to EU rubbish any more. Every decision made in Brussels is now another nail in the europhiles coffin and it can only get worse.
Friday, October 23, 2015

An Optimum Currency Area, a region that would maximize economic benefit by sharing a common currency, thus subscribing to the governing body's monetary policy. Since it's usually a free floating economy, the exchange rate also becomes a tool for the policy body. In the case of countries though, some argue and we see this with Greece, this forces a country to give up its monetary policy and 'sovereignty according to some and instead rely on fiscal policy to maintain the BOP accounts. They no longer can depreciate their currency to improve advantage in exports to help a deficit and/risk capital outflows from the country. As far as I know though, and it might be only for fixed exchange rate economies, but this one economist named Rudi Dornbusch came up with the overshooting exchange rate model saying that manipulating the exchange rate can be difficult to achieve the intended goal because of the volatile nature of the exchange rate system. I also remember the higher risk a country, the more issues that can arise and Greece with corruption isn't exactly a model example. It doesn't even necessarily have to be a joint group of countries. Some economists have proposed OCA regions for the U.S and Canada with the idea that broad policy goals intended to help one area one hurt another areas as badly. It catch on because you can imagine how Americans on the state independence reacted to that one. The thing with the Euro and Mundell called this failing with Greece joining was first off, they 'worked their books' to get in after several attempts and it wasn't really an open secret. In his paper where he coined the OCA, he says for it to work, there needs open fiscal transfer within the union or it can lead to instability in peripheral members. If your mobility of capital (the BP curve in the IS-LM-BP model) is immobile (a vertical line if you took economics or international finance) within the internal region, then the external valuation of the currency won't perform the stabilization function that's required. If anyone remembers more about this then feel free to add on, and here's the paper if you want to read it. I won't lie, it's a dry read if economics or finance aren't your thing.

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