Tuesday, November 3, 2015

This is hilarious on various levels. Firstly, leaving the EU cannot possibly have a negative impact on credit rating. We heard all of this crap about not joining the Euro. It didn't work then, and it won't work now.  Secondly - there is going to be a popular vote on this. S&P will not get a vote. And the likes of S&P are the most despised people in the world today. So by backing the Remain campaign, they can only help Leave.  But the real fact is this. There has been no substantive discussion of Cameron's "renegotiation". And there never will be because the EU has already made clear, that "renegotiation" is NOT on the table, and it won't be.  Cameron is a liar. The EU is a fascist dictatorship. UK does not have to put up with this. Love Europe. Hate the EU.  Get us out of this sickness...Here come the scare tactics and it will get worst. Look, Cameron has lost the argument with respects to discussions with Brussels as he's not going to get a thing. He will now fire every shot possible about the business and that we will be hit substantially. I tell you what - let's look at the population reaching 75 million in ten years. Let's talk about our standard of living dropping due to wage compression. Let's talk about importing terrorists as the EU can't and won't vet immigrants (oops, sorry refugees. Don't make me laugh). Let's talk about our NHS being overwhelmed. Let's talk about bumper to bumper traffic in our major cities. Let's talk about lack of housing. Let's talk about TB at its highest since Victorian times. Let's talk about the EU 2016 budget increase of £10billion. AND MANY MANY MORE! Get me the hell out of the EU and do so now!

Monday, November 2, 2015

One year ago, Gazprom dropped South Stream after the European Commission announced that the project does not comply with the legislation of the Third Energy Package. The pipeline was supposed to cross the Black Sea avoiding Ukraine and transporting the natural gas through Bulgaria, Hungary, Austria towards Western Europe. Immediately after abandoning South Stream, the Russian giant promoted Turkish Stream, a pipeline also going below the Black Sea, but which connects Russia to Turkey directly. Russia has told Europe that starting in 2019, it needs to connect its infrastructure to the new pipeline because it wants to stop transporting natural gas through Ukraine.  Turkey did its job well and has negotiated very harshly with Russia the price of natural gas that should "flow" through Turkish Stream. Meanwhile, the conflict with Syria has begun, in which Turkey and Russia have diverging interests, and Gazprom has announced in the beginning of the month, that it is postponing the project, after signing a deal in September with five major European energy companies to build Nord Stream 2.  At the end of last week, Ali Riza Alaboyun, Turkish minister of energy, said, quoted by trend.az, that the implementation of Turkish Stream will be clarified soon, mentioning that the intergovernmental agreement would be reevaluated after the parliamentary elections in Turkey, scheduled to take place on November 1st.  Minister Alaboyun felt the need to stipulate that Turkey will support every action that "puts energy resources at work for peace ands security". Besides, for 28 years, Turkey has been one of the main markets for Russia to sell its natural gas on. The official further said: "Currently, 10 billion cubic meters of Russian gas is being imported by Russian private companies and 20 billion cubic meters by state owned company Botas. We are also importing natural gas from Azerbaidjan, Iran, Nigeria and Algeria". Turkish Stream is designed to have four transport avenues, each with 15.75 billion cubic meters each.  The American Energy Information Agency (EIA) showed, in a recent report, that the reason why Turkish Stream "froze" was that Turkey could not agree with Russia on the price of natural gas. Turkish Stream was supposed to be the connection for Eastring, which would bring the Russian gas to South-Eastern Europe, involving, among other countries Slovakia, Hungary and Romania (ed. note: the networks exists and a better interconnection is being built).
     The EIA noted that alternative suppliers for Europe aside from Azerbaijan would Iran and Iraq, but it mentioned that Iranian natural gas would be hard to bring in due to the lack of infrastructure.

Sunday, November 1, 2015

Two European airlines announced they would no longer fly over the Sinai Peninsula on Saturday after a Russian passenger plane crashed in this troubled area of Egypt, killing all 224 people on board.  Lufthansa and Air France promised to avoid the airspace over the Sinai until it was clear why disaster had overtaken Flight KGL9268 operated by Metrojet, a small Russian airline. They were later joined by Emirates, which also announced its aircraft would be kept away from the Sinai peninsula "until more information is available". The Airbus A321 took off from Egypt’s Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh at 5.51am local time, bound for St Petersburg. The aircraft vanished from radar screens 23 minutes later, while flying at 31,000ft. The crash was the deadliest aviation disaster in Egypt's history...However, the Egyptian authorities said the pilot of the aircraft had reported a mechanical failure and asked to land at the nearest airport. Experts cautioned that it was too early to say what had caused the disaster and that Isil lacked weapons that could bring down an airliner at such an altitude...“Flight radar data makes clear there was a flight upset, but we have no idea why. There are loads of terrorist factions operating in the area and many affiliated to Islamic State. The Egyptians work very hard on security at Sharm el-Sheikh because if you wanted to destroy the tourist economy that would be the likeliest target. However the plane was too high for a shoulder launched missile, but it was 2,000 feet lower than MH17.”  Voicing caution about the possibility of a missile destroying the plane, Mr Learmount added: "In this case the aircraft appears to have come down in one piece, unlike MH17.”  But Maksim Sokolov, the Russian transport minister, dismissed Isil’s claim, saying: “It can’t be considered accurate”.  Nonetheless, Lufthansa and Air France decided to avoid Sinai until the cause of the crash was established. “We took the decision to avoid the area because the situation and the reasons for the crash were not clear," said a Lufthansa spokesperson. British Airways, however, said it would continue to fly over Sinai. “The safety and security of our customers and crew is always our top priority, and we would never operate a flight unless it was safe to do so,” said the airline. “Our safety team continually liaises with the appropriate authorities around the world, and we conduct very detailed risk assessments into every route we operate.”
 The main points of what has been agreed:
* To increase reception capacity to 30,000 places by the end of the year in Greece. The UN refugee agency will provide rent subsidies and host family programmes for at least 20,000 more people.
* To seek additional capacity of 50,000, reaching a total of 100,000 along the western Balkans route and Greece.
* To deploy 400 police officers within a week to Slovenia.
* To step up efforts to facilitate return of migrants not in need for international protection and step up cooperation on repatriation with Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Iraq and Pakistan.
* To scale up the Poseidon Sea Joint Operation in Greece, in particular the EU's border agency Frontex's presence in the Aegean Sea, and strengthen significantly Frontex support to Greece in registering and fingerprinting activities.
* To refrain from facilitating the movement of migrants to the border of another country. It is not acceptable to wave through refugees to another country.
* To set up contact points to allow daily exchanges of information regarding migrant movements.
* To exchange information on the size of movement and flows of refugees. Frontex as well as the EU's asylum office ESAO will put this exchange of information in place.
* To contact financial institutions including the European Investment Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development to secure finances for accommodation of refugees.
* To step up police and judicial cooperation actions against migrant smuggling, engaging Europol and Interpol in Western Balkan route operations.
* To reinforce support of the bloc's border agency Frontex at the border between Bulgaria and Turkey. To set up a new Frontex operation at the external land borders between Greece and Macedonia and Greece and Albania to focus on exit checks and registration of refugees who were not registered in Greece.
* Working together with Frontex to detect irregular border crossing and support registration and fingerprinting in Croatia.

Saturday, October 31, 2015

Britain's financial stability could be threatened by closer eurozone integration unless the UK secures safeguards from Brussels that protect the interests of non-members, the Governor of the Bank of England has warned. Although Carney pre-warned his speech was a bit of a yawner I listened to every word SkyNews broadcast (they cut away after it became clear he was being VERY cautious in the way he was laying out the economic pros and cons) and my takeaway actually was he was tiptoe saying being out was in our best interests at this point given the reference to the Treaty of Rome (without a mention of the Treaty of Lisbon that has caused so d*mn trouble) and the way he kept saying safeguards to protect Britain and other non-Eurozone member states had to be in place.
Seriously, let's face it - what are the real odds Brussels will ever agree to any real economic reforms that will not go against the UK and other non-Eurozone members, really?!  I have to say I was impressed by the way he walked that razors edge, and not at all surprised he seemed to feel he had to give the facts, appear to be carefully endorsing our staying in the EU whilst really saying staying is too dangerous (references to various EU laws that clearly act against Britain's best interests)...There is absolutely no prospect that the EU will remain a multi-currency zone. As the EU moves towards economic union - and the French are pressing for swifter progress - all member states will be required to adopt the euro. That includes the UK and Carney know this. Are we to deduce that he favours Britain's joining the EZ which will require all the pain on the UK's part of synchronising its economic cycle with that of Europe that Brown and Balls judged would be politically unacceptable?  The Eurozealots want and need economic union because they believe it will be the last and essential step towards guaranteeing the survival of the single currency, putting it beyond the reach of future crises.  It's implicit in the Inners case, led by David Cameron, that eventual membership of this "safe" euro is precisely what they have in mind and that they will use a referendum vote in favour of staying in the EU as a mandate. There will be no opt outs for Britain or anyone else under economic union and the political union that will follow which will cement in place Brussels' complete usurpation of all meaningful national sovereignty. Carney is aware also that it is the dearest ambition of the Berlin, Brussels, Paris axis that will determine the terms of economic union to bring the City under full EU control. Economic union will be about harmonising all aspects of economic and financial policy across the entire EU. The City will be harmonised along with everything else.  Again, as I listened, my takeaway was he actually was saying staying in will expose Britain to grave economic dangers. It didn't change my mind at all - I have been hoping to tick the NO-LEAVE NOW box for years, decades in fact, ever since ticking that box back in the day.

Friday, October 30, 2015

"We are open to a whole menu of monetary policy instruments," Mr Draghi said, noting that further interest rate cuts had been discussed. "The discussion was wide open."" Sounds like he has Yellen's Disease, but printing money is always the solution for the left to fix fiscal abnormalities... “The ECB will almost certainly be delivering an early Christmas present this year,” said Nick Kounis, the head of markets and macro research at investment bank ABN Amro. Draghi is an enthusiastic proponent of “forward guidance”, the strategy of sending strong verbal policy signals in order to shift financial markets – in this case, driving down the euro.  His dramatic pledge in the summer of 2012 – in the middle of the Greek debt crisis – that the ECB would do “whatever it takes” to save the single currency helped to reassure panic-stricken investors. Jeremy Cook, the chief economist of international payments company World First, said ECB policymakers were likely to have become increasingly concerned in recent weeks about the strengthening of the currency, which makes eurozone goods less competitive on international markets. “Draghi and the executive council couldn’t have been clearer that additional policy easing was coming if they’d had the words ‘sell the euro’ tattooed on their faces,” he said. Euro area GDP rose 0.4% in the second quarter of 2015, a slight slowdown from 0.5% growth in the previous quarter. We must all call attention to the salient fact that the EU, US, UK and Japan are riding along using debt to sustain their economies. QE and other nostrums directly related to money printing thus monetizing the debt must be clearly understood...A number of reasons they do this:
1) kicking the can in the hope some visionary guides us to economic enlightenment before the global economy implodes in it's entirety
2) this is simply a response to the US' decision not to raise rates as well as the Yuan's devaluation a number of months ago. Given the Euro depends on exports, a weaker Euro will prop up the currency. Make no mistake, we're at war, a currency war
3) this is also being pushed as a solution by those who seek to gain the most, ie banks and investment funds. Governments in the aforementioned states are too large and expensive, too inefficient, too prone to spend without consideration of how the debt is affected by the deficits and too prone to call for more taxation in every case where they run short of money.So now it is completely safe to say that the relationship between stocks and underlying fundamentals now NO LONGER EXISTS.
No if's, no maybe's, just absolute fact. Stock valuations are entire fiction. The entire purpose of the Fed / ECB / BoE/ BoJ is to make something levitate. What they cannot do is make anyone with a brain believe a word of it. It is almost game over, pension fund over, banking system over, savings over.  Quantitative easing is not the answer, reality is the answer. Let's just accept that our standard of living is going to fall. QE will delay it and make matters worse, facing reality on the other hand will ensure that the fall in our standard of living will happen now, but won't be as painful in the future when compared to the QE option. The reality is - Too much debt
One of the three following options are open to the central planners.
1. QE for as long as possible - outcome - Dreadful economic future.
2. Attempt to reduce the deficit to zero by the end of this Parliament. - outcome - significant reduction of our standard of living and civil unrest.
3. Attempt to reduce the deficit over a long period of time, bearing in mind the paradox of thrift will make this a slow and relatively painful process, but from my point of view, this is the best option open to us.  A tipping point passed many years ago, we needed brave politicians dealing with the debt issue. However. I can understand why politicians did not grasp the nettle, a fickle public would not vote for them, after all, who wants harsh reality.

Thursday, October 29, 2015

Well, Deutsche Bank, VW, immigrant welcome mat manufacture rates down, Mother Merkel beatification questioned. Bit bumpy huh!...Deutsche Bank has unveiled plans to split-up its struggling investment banking operations as part of a shake-up which will see the departure of a host of senior executives. The bank, which employs more than 8,000 people in the UK, said Colin Fan, who was co-head of the investment bank, has resigned, while Michele Faissola, the head of the asset and wealth management business, will also leave. Stefan Krause, who was Deutsche’s finance chief until earlier this year, is also departing at the end of the month. Stephan Leithner, currently a member of the lender’s management board, is quitting to join private equity house EQT ... The dramatic overhaul is part of a plan by John Cryan, who became co-chief executive in July, to revive the lender’s fortunes. As well as the personnel changes, Deutsche said that its investment bank, which is Europe’s largest, will be divided into two divisions: a new unit called Global Markets, comprising sales and trading activities, and another called Corporate & Investment Banking, incorporating its corporate finance and global transactions banking operations. The shake-up comes less than a fortnight after the bank revealed that it would slump to a €6.2bn loss during its third quarter. The huge loss was driven by a €5.8bn impairment charge that Deutsche blamed on a higher capital requirements, which hit the value of the investment bank, and a write-down of its Postbank business, which is being sold.