Wednesday, November 25, 2015

The Organization for Cooperation and Economic Development (OCDE) has worsened its estimates concerning the growth of the world's economy, for the second time in the last three months, as the slowdown of the emerging markets is affecting other countries as well, such as Germany and Japan.
The OCDE forecasts that the global economy will see a 2.9% advance this year, down from its 3% September estimate, and after the 3.4% growth of 2014, respectively. According to the OCDE, the economic growth will accelerate to 3.3% next year, down from the previous 3.6% forecast.  "The growth outlook for the global economy has worsened this year. The forecast for emerging markets is currently the main reason for the global uncertainty", the OCDE warns: "The difficulties on the emerging markets are greater. If the situation of those countries deteriorates, the growth of Japan and the Eurozone will be affected".   According to the OCDE, the Eurozone will see 1.5% growth in 2015, and 1.8% in 2016.
Another flop for Jean-Claude Juncker's migration initiative as a major bounty fund for Africa raises just €78million - out of a target of €1.8 billion. The European Commission president wanted to raise the money to give to African states in exchange for them accepting the deportation of migrants. But a whip round among member states raised just a fraction of the target, leaving the entire deportation programme in doubt. It follows the flop of the relocation scheme which has moved just over 100 people out of a target of 160,000. I'm told Juncker and Merkel will press for more money for Turkey
The leader of the People's Movement Party, Traian Băsescu, feels that the decision of president Klaus Iohannis to nominate Dacian Cioloş as prime-minister is "a good solution". Băsescu has made no further comments, even though it wasn't long ago that he was harshly criticizing the solution of a technocratic government. Sunday night, on B1TV, Traian Băsescu said that the "technocratic solution" is for "banana republics", and he said that appointing a technocrat or a general as government head was basically "the same". According to Mediafax, at the time, the former president also said that the creation of a technocratic government would represent "a guaranteed failure": "It would be the greatest mistake, who in the Parliament would listen to those technocrats? They have to pass budgets, they have to pass laws, who would listen to them? These parliament members, good or bad, have to do their homework and work with a political government. This technocrat stuff has never worked anywhere in Europe (...) The technocratic solution is for banana republics, bringing in technocrats or bringing in generals it's basically the same (...) A technocratic government would be a guaranteed failure".  On the other hand, over the last few days, Traian Băsescu has been saying that president Klaus Iohannis has very few options for the prime-minister position, namely Dacian Cioloş or Lucian Croitoru. The latter was his option during the 2009 political crisis, when the Boc government was dismissed through a vote of no-confidence by the Parliament, and when the majority at the time proposed Klaus Iohannis as prime-minister.

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

The forced collective suicide of European nations

Europe braced for a revolutionary Leftist backlash after Greece  .. He has vowed to block anti-austerity measures such as reverses to wage cuts, rehiring of public sector workers, and halting privatisations. A constitutional amendment would require a two-thirds majority vote in the country's 230-seat parliament. It cannot pass with the support of the Socialists who are the second largest party in parliament.  If the motion fails, Anibal Cavaco Silva, the president, faces the choice of appointing a caretaker regime for six months, or relenting and allowing the Leftists to enter power.
He is due to make a decision in the coming days. Indebted Portugal is still the problem child of the Eurozone . The political stalemate comes as Portugal's economy has stalled. GDP growth ground to a halt at just 0pc in the third quarter for the former bail-out country. Portugal's former international creditors in the IMF and Brussels have urged any new regime to continue cutting government spending, reduce debt levels and make crucial economic reforms. "Since the onset of the eurozone crisis, Portuguese voters have shown remarkable loyalty to their traditional political parties," said Ben May at Oxford Economics. "The pace of structural reforms has dwindled and could even go into reverse under a Left-wing alliance", he said

Sunday, November 22, 2015

Hungary pays off IMF debt, may eye EU exit

Portuguese bonds and stocks were hit as a coalition of left-of-centre anti-austerity parties looked set to form the country's next government.  The opposition Socialists struck a deal with two smaller far-left parties over the weekend, all but guaranteeing Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho will fall.  Mr Passos Coelho's party emerged as the largest in October's election, but has no absolute majority.  Government bond yields hit a five-month high, while shares fell 1.9%.   "The scenario of a left-wing government and the ousting of the centre-right is about to become reality, which the markets obviously don't like," said Joao Lampreia, an analyst at Banco BiG.  Portugal's benchmark 10-year bond yields jumped over 20 basis points to 2.87%, the highest since July, as investors anticipated higher borrowing costs.  Socialist Party leader Antonio Costa sealed the so-called "Triple Left" pact with the Communist Party and Left Bloc over the weekend.  Together they will have 122 seats, enough to out-vote the centre-right coalition government, which was left with only 107 after October's inconclusive elections.  A vote on the government's programme is likely to take place on Tuesday, when the leftist parties are set to use their parliamentary advantage to topple the minority administration. Matt Cairns, a strategist at Rabobank, said there were fears a change in government "could end up in some wind-back of austerity measures".   Another analyst, Rainer Guntermann at Commerzbank, warned "rating jitters are also on the rise for Portugal".  Amid the political uncertainty, Portugal's only investment grade credit rating will be assessed on Friday by credit agency DBRS.  The loss of that rating would bar Portugal from the European Central Bank's quantitative easing (QE) programme, Commerzbank warns.

Saturday, November 21, 2015

Finland's parliament will debate next year whether to quit the euro, a senior parliamentary official said on Monday, in a move unlikely to end membership of the single currency but which highlights Finns' dissatisfaction with their country's economic performance. The decision follows a citizens' petition which has raised the necessary 50,000 signatures under Finnish rules to force such a debate, probably the first such initiative in any country of the 19-member euro zoneThe petition - which will continue to gather signatures until mid-January - demands a referendum on euro membership, but this would only go ahead if parliament backed the idea.  Despite the initiative, a Eurobarometer poll this month showed 64pc of Finns backed the common currency, though that is down from 69pc a year ago. But the Nordic country has suffered three years of economic contraction and is currently performing worse than any other country in the eurozone. Some Finns say the country's prospects would improve if it returned to the markka currency and regained the ability to set its own interest rates, pointing to the example of neighboring Sweden, which is outside the euro. The markka could then devalue against the euro, making Finnish exports less expensive. Since 2008 the Swedish economy has grown by 8pc, while ours has shrunk by 6 percent," said Paavo Vayrynen, a Finnish member of the European Parliament who launched the initiative. Now is a good time to have a wider debate whether we should continue in the eurozone or not," said Vayrynen, a veteran lawmaker from the co-ruling Centre Party who is known for his opposition to greater European integration. The center-right government is struggling to balance public finances and improve export competitiveness through "internal devaluation", including cuts to workers' holidays and other benefits, amid opposition from unions. Before 1992, Finland devaluated its markka currency time and again to improve export competitiveness.