Thursday, October 2, 2014

"DRAGHI SAYS EU BUDGET RULES ARE THERE TO BE RESPECTED" - Draghi also realises that big countries will ignore them with impugnity - just like they did the first time around. France is already in violation and knows full well that the EU and the ECB are utterly importent in the face of that.  Just as they were when Germany - yes, Germany - lead the way in breaking the rules shortly after the euro came into being. All countries remember this, espescially the ones on the receiving end of imperious Germanic lectures about "doing their homework".  Germany has made the classic mistake of doing well when others around it are doing badly, presuming this state of affairs will persist eternally and feeling it has a free hand to treat it's neighbours as it pleases. The moment German needs demand it, the Fiscal Pact will be out of the window; Anegla Merkel would be out of office within weeks if her government were to attempt the sort of austerity it has, in essence, forced upon Greece. The Netherlands were, if anything, even more hawkish than the Germans regarding "lazy Southerners" and wanted things like automatic fines. Then their own economy began to suffer the same problems and they also breached the rules - you don't hear much from them these days. Our Scottish friends may wish to ponder the huge difference in the treatment meted out to small countries as opposed to large ones in the EU. Of course, none of this should be greeted with any Satisfaction in the UK. A recession in the eurozone is bad for us too. Though thankfuly we have at least managed to dodge the madness of dropping a hand-grenade into the economy via a Scottish separation. Now, a worsening recession means there will be less taxable income for governments to fund ever growing entitlements. Add that to a huge pile of moldering away bad debts. What I see is not a solvable problem the way the world works today.
Neither Draghi or any of the bankers even bother to talk about the real problem of not enough regional income and too much government spending. Draghi’s only solution is some form of money printing. Printing money to pay bills might work over the short term. But long term, it cannot. If money printing works in the real world why not print and give every one a billion dollars, euros or yen?
The most Draghi can do is have the ECB print money to service existing bad debts made by banks and governments. But printing money to pay interest and principle on loans is not debt service. That is called money printing, debasing the currency whatever. Yes, governments want to do whatever possible to avoid bad times for its citizens. But, as someone else once said, the road to hell is paved with good intentions.

Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Earlier this month, the European Central Bank introduced new measures to stimulate the area's flagging economy.
As well as launching an asset purchase programme, through which it will buy debt products from banks, the ECB cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.05%.
Business growth in France slumped to a three-year low, with both the manufacturing and service sectors suffering.
"Anaemic demand continues to hold back the private sector," said Jack Kennedy, a senior economist at Markit, "with further price cutting insufficient to prevent new orders from falling".
In Germany, service sector growth rebounded to a two-month high, but manufacturing growth recorded its slowest growth for 15 months.
Markit economists also raised concerns about the crisis in Ukraine, and related Russian sanctions, which they warned could have further adverse effects on business in Europe.
"The danger is that the ECB's efforts to stimulate the economy will prove ineffective in the face of such headwinds, which are exacerbating already-weak demand," said Mr Williamson.

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

President Barack Obama has declined to supply Ukraine with “lethal aide” despite the passionate plea for more military equipment that Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko made to Congress earlier on Thursday. During a White House meeting between the two leaders that occurred after Poroshenko’s address to Congress, President Obama said the United States would keep working to mobilize the international community in order for the conflict in Ukraine to be solved diplomatically, Reuters reports. Following the meeting, Poroshenko said he was pleased with Washington’s help, and expressed hope that the shaky ceasefire in Ukraine would eventually lead to stability and peace. Earlier in the day, however, Poroshenko suggested that NATO give “special” security status to Ukraine. Addressing the US Congress, he called on Washington to provide Kiev with “more military equipment, lethal and non-lethal” to “keep peace” in the eastern part of his country. While President Obama has continued to say that only non-lethal assistance will be supplied to Kiev – bullet-proof vests, helmets and the like – Poroshenko said this would not be enough. Aside from asking for military assistance, Poroshenko called on the US to continue its economic pressure on Russia. "And I also ask that the US be forceful and stand by its principle with respect to further sanctions against the aggressor. Economic sanctions are important for many reasons. They help to distinguish between good and evil. They help us to defend and stand the moral high ground and not to sink into indifference, disgust and pragmatism," the Ukrainian president said.
Meanwhile, the United States has pledged $53 million in fresh aid to Ukraine. The new assistance would include $46 million to bolster Ukraine's security in its conflict in eastern Ukraine and $7 million in humanitarian aid.

Monday, September 29, 2014

Moscow will curtail Ukraine's access to vital Russian markets if Kiev implements any part of a trade agreement with the European Union, President Vladimir Putin warned in a letter, toughening his stance on a deal at the center of East-West tensions. In a letter to Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, seen by Reuters on Tuesday, Putin warned that even changing national legislation to prepare for the EU-Ukraine trade deal, known as the association agreement, would trigger an immediate response from Moscow. "We still believe that only systemic adjustments of the Association Agreement, which take into account the full range of risks to Russian-Ukranian economic ties and to the whole Russian economy, will allow to retain existing trade and economic cooperation between the Russian Federation and Ukraine," Putin wrote in the letter, which is dated Sept. 17.  Putin did not go into detail about possible retaliation, but Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said last week he had signed an order to curb Ukrainian exporters' access to Russia. Those measures are yet to take effect.  In a last-minute concession to Moscow, the EU delayed implementing the trade accord until Dec. 31 2015. Brussels hopes that will give it time to assuage Russian concerns about the pact, which is now a legal treaty that cannot easily be changed.
But Putin's letter suggests that the Kremlin considers the 15-month delay to the EU-Ukraine agreement a complete freezing of the process until Russian demands for changes to the legal texts are met.
"Adoption of such amendments to Ukrainian legislation, including implementing acts, will be considered as infringement of the arrangement to postpone implementation of the Association Agreement, entailing immediate and adequate retaliatory measures from the Russian side," Putin wrote.  Putin wants three-way negotiations to amend the EU's accord with Kiev, which Russia says will hurt its own economy. According to EU officials, Russia wants to remove more than 2,000 products eligible for duty-free access to the European Union, tearing up about a quarter of the agreement.
Russian companies are also concerned they will not be able to import into Ukraine after Ukraine adopts higher EU standards as part of its implementation of the pact. Ukrainian companies will receive European technical help and funds to help adapt to EU regulations. But without some kind of agreement with the EU, Russia would have to put up its own funds to help its companies such as carmakers modernize and comply with EU standards. EU officials say there is room for compromise.  Russian exporters could have a soft route to compliance with EU quality and other standards in Ukraine so that they only need meet the requirements for selling goods into the EU-Ukraine free-trade area over a very long time. (Reuters)

Sunday, September 28, 2014

Well to be honest, Cameron, Hollande and Merkel saw, in the violence in Ukraine, an opportunity to give Mr. Putin a good kicking - and took it (in their own, limp-wristed, spineless kind of a way). They took the opportunity knowing that it would have repercussions on their own countries' economies but, hey, it wouldn't affect them personally so why not? ... Now we have a kind of a deal going on in Ukraine, one that seems to favour the pro-Russian faction, and so European manufacturers once again have had to suffer so that their political parasites' egos could be burnished....The EU/UK lackeys of the US Empire, are like naughty children playing with matches, whilst the evil governess looks on, unconcerned. It's becoming clear that the EU has been persuaded to drink the kool-aid and nirvana awaits them on the other side. It's Kafkaesque. The premiss seems to be that a bankrupt entity sanctions a rich creditor nation (although nation is too smaller word for a country encompassing 12 times zones and 40-45% of known world resources) into submission by refusing to offer them more debt. Europe will be weakened for a generation and become, increasingly, an unimportant peninsula on the Eurasian continent.  Meanwhile, Russia-China cement, extend and strengthen their already (natural) geo-political, trade and resource provider/manufacturer complementarity. The US Empire is gambling that its mighty military machine can subdue and subjugate the BRICS (through primarily Russia/China) to stop them becoming the new geo-political and trading hub, before the rest of the world catches on to the US$ reserve currency ponzi scheme. Game for for the Empire if that happens.... In conclusion : The sanctions were completely unnecessary. The EU should not always obey the US as they do. Cameron and Hollande have even less balls than Merkel, and she does not have any. Sorry if this sounds somewhat crude. But the EU leaders are pathetic wimps and cowards.

Saturday, September 27, 2014

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a report pointing out that Italy is in need of radical economic reforms in its labor market based on major economic indicators, Press TV reports.
The world body has urged Rome to implement revisions in its labor market law in a bid to generate new employment opportunities.
The development comes as the nation’s unemployment rate stands at 12.6 percent, the highest level since the World War II, and is projected to remain above 10 percent at least until the year 2017.
Although official statistics indicate that the unemployment rate in Italy stands at over 12 percent, labor market experts insist that the situation is much more alarming.
Italy's inactivity rate among those aged between 15 and 64 years has recently been recorded at nearly 40 percent. "Inactivity, defined as an unemployed not looking for work, is a structural problem in the Italian society. Relying on official unemployment rate...is [just] misleading,” said Mariano Bella with Confcommercio, adding, “The issue is that our economy continues to contract and unfortunately latest forecast shows that it won’t grow enough next year.”
This is while the country's largest industrial employers' association, Confindustria, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) both forecast the Italian economy will shrink by 0.4 percent this year.
Even though the IMF predicts the economy in Italy will grow by 1.1 percent in 2015, the OECD’s forecast shows that the Italian economy will barely recover within the next year, growing only by 0.1 percent.

Friday, September 26, 2014

Key gauges of Germany manufacturing slumped in September, falling to a 15-month low as ongoing tensions over Ukraine weighed on the sector.  Markit’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for the sector dropped to 50.3, from 51.4 a month earlier. The reading is barely above 50, implying that the sector is expanding, but slowly. 
No analyst polled by Reuters expected a number this bad.
The most pessimistic expert forecast that the PMI figure would fall to 51, while the average analyst believed Germany’s PMI would drop to 51.2.  Germany’s factories are particularly exposed to any conflict between Russia and its neighbours, as well as the tit-for-tat sanctions exchanged between Russia and the EU.   Yes, it is difficult to imagine more stupid and counter-productive foreign policies than those pursued by the brain-dead European ruling class. Europe and Russia are natural allies, both geographically and in terms of commercial and energy interests. We must vote a new generation of leaders into office all across Europe, one which is not stuck in cold war thinking and glued to American energy policies and global militarism....The terrible thing about the huge losses being incurred by EU countries in the tit-for-tat sanctions by Russia is the feeling that the EU simply didn't think Russia would respond! Instead Poland, Greece and others have lost a large market for their agricultural products. France seems determined to destroy any future military (and no doubt civilian) technology sales to Russia. In the meantime Russia is seeking and finding alternative sources. So the Russian market is waving goodbye to the EU. (Interestingly, that good NATO member Turkey is one of the new sources.)...Meanwhile, just to ramp things up even more, the US is to sell cruise missiles to Poland which are capable of hitting targets in Russia.