Sunday, May 3, 2015

The US recovery suffered a severe setback at the start of the year with the rate of economic expansion far slower than economists had anticipated, according to data released on Wednesday.
US GDP rose by just 0.05pc in the first quarter, well below the 0.2pc expected by analysts and far weaker than the previous quarter's 0.54pc increase. Analysts blamed the strengthening dollar for the poor performance, as the currency's strength hit exports for a fourth consecutive month. The growth data is likely to stay the Federal Reserve's hands in raising interest rates later this year. The FTSE 100 and dollar both lost ground as the data were released. Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, said: "A stalling of US economic growth at the start of the year rules out any imminent hiking of interest rates by the Fed.  "The slowdown looks temporary, as a rebound from the first quarter weakness is already being signalled by forward-looking survey data, but the sustainability of any upturn is by no means convincing yet."  Ahead of the release, analysts at Deutsche Bank said: "The first quarter of the year has been the weakest in recent years, and 2015 is likely to be no exception”.  A string of weak first quarter performances has led some economists to question whether the Commerce Department, which releases the figures is "seasonally adjusting" the data correctly. As a result, some believe that the performances in the second to fourth quarters have been overstated. If that proves to be the case again this year, US growth figures should bounce back

Saturday, May 2, 2015

Here is the situation without the clutter.
1. Greece has borrowed money which it can never pay back.
2. Greece has no money to pay its public sector.
3. Greece can no longer borrow money.
4. Greece wants to stay in the EU
5. Greece will be funded in perpetuity by the other EU members.
Alternatively Greece could be released to re-establish its sovereignty. As usual the project 'leaders' (sic) can't make a decision, and continue to undermine the €uro due to their ineptitude...the truth of the matter....
1. France, Belgium and Germany LENT money to Greece to get their sticky fingers on Greek national projects.
2. They knew in advance that Greece could never - ever - repay these debts - but they knew that the Lending Banks' losses would be sicked onto the taxpayers. Typical EU mafia.
3. Greece makes enough to pay its own public sector and did so long before the French invented the EU.
4. The Greeks have been telling the EU they don't want to borrow any more money for a couple of months now.
5. Greece WILL stay in the EU - or bring down the EU.
There's a lot more to it than just anti-Greek hype y'know...Unless a haircut is granted to Greece no amount of reforms will make a difference to Greece. Greece is bankrupt and has been since 2009. So Greece's partners are wasting their time...Nothing will change.
Greece cannot make their payments to the EU so it makes no difference. Everyone nows it and has known it..They are flogging a dead horse.  You cannot get blood out of a stone...There is nothing else to take..

Friday, May 1, 2015

In memoriam ...a grat singer ....

Greece requires to be bailed out...Just like the banks were a few years back...Hundreds of £Billions were dished out and also Q.E. was introduced and indeed will continue, just so the financials continue to operate...Kicking that can down the road. Now ask yourself what's the difference between banks and Greece...Both were broken by miss management and greed. Today however the banks and financials continue on their merry way...richer than ever, whilst the people of Greece (and others) must suffer austerity and unemployment...The divide between the rich in the centers of finance and politics, getting wealthier as their assets and investments go up in value maintained all the while by Q.E. and bail outs, and the rest of societies, grows wider by the day.  Greece meantime...There is an argument here, for Greece just throwing in the towel and defaulting on their debt, returning to the Drachma and say stuff it, we've had enough of this, Let the financials suffer for a change...Once this course of action happens, as sure it will, others will follow and the Euro will then be no more...First to leave will benefit the most...When?, that is the question...One is a loan and the other one is a "Donation" (well supposed to be a loan). Notice under TARP, the US government made profits - from the interest charged and the capital gains when the securities were sold. In contrast to Greece, so far 53.5% of the original loans were written off. Yet, Greece wants more debt write-off.And the same time, it wants Europe to lend it more money, which no doubt a portion will be written off in the future.  If you were the lender, would you lend your OWN MONEY to Greece?!?  As to the issue of reforms - every single country, when bloated must reform - whether the country is the US, Russia or Greece. Remember that unemployment in the US nearly reached 10M at one stage.  The extra-ordinary loans were made, so that companies and countries could carry out the necessary reforms and transition into a new viable and competitive entity (for example GM or Ireland).  Europe and IMF have offered Greece the loans, so it could carry out reforms.  But Greece only wants the money, but "does not" want to carry out reforms.  Which in the end results in Greece and companies within Greece, to remain un-competitive, which results in Greece asking for more "Loans" from Europe and IMF and more "write-offs".
A vicious cycle - no?!?

Thursday, April 30, 2015

How long does it take to double your money? You likely can have twice as much wealth in 10 years, if you invest it in stocks, or 72 years if it goes into a savings account. It pays to understand the math.  Everyone says you should invest because you'll grow your money, but let's back up a second and look at how it really works.  Stocks are one of many possible ways to invest your money. While the future is never guaranteed, history suggests that they have high potential returns. The long-term average return of the Standard and Poor's 500 Index is about 10% per year from 1928 to 2014. Warren Buffett several years ago, in the aftermath of the financial crisis, said that investors should expect a return of 6% to 7% a year. Keep in mind that these are long-term averages. The market can go down in one year, and you have to wait a couple of years for things to turn around. That's why it's best to invest money that you most likely don't need for several years.  The likelihood of achieving high single- to double-digit annual percentage returns is why people invest in the stock market for their retirement. Beyond your emergency fund, why would you put money that you don't plan on touching for 10, 20 or 30 years into savings accounts that can't even keep up with inflation?  According to Bankrate, today's average money market rate in America is 0.09%. With inflation rising at approximately 2% year over year, socking away your retirement money into a savings account means you're actually losing money. (What's even crazier, there are new ways of saving that earn no interest at all, such as this new app called Digit.)

Wednesday, April 29, 2015

every day more bad economic data, the possibility of a stagnating economy is going to look pretty attractive soon.

The French economy remained a blot on the eurozone’s economic landscape in April, as leading surveys of the private sector showed the country lagging the pack.  Closely-followed indicators for France revealed that the country’s private sector growth slowed this month. The all-sector purchasing managers’ index (PMI) slipped from March’s 51.5 to 50.2, according to preliminary estimates compiled by Markit.  Any number above 50 would imply that the private side of the economy was growing, a threshold the French index narrowly managed to remain above. While the currency bloc’s other large economies enjoyed stronger scores, analysts at French banks declared that the country was still limp.  Frederik Ducrozet, an economist at Crédit Agricole, said that France was “still lost in stagnation”. Ken Wattret, of BNP Paribas, said that the reading “looks very disappointing”.  Both the manufacturing and services components of the French PMI fell in April, to 48.4 and 50.8 respectively, as the country's industrial sector continues to shrink. Jack Kennedy, an economist at Markit, said: "Output growth stuttered almost to a halt in April, signalling a continuation of the moribund economic environment." ... the French economy is a basket case and has been for some time. They have gold plated rules so business can't sack people, pension rights that are bankrupting the Country, taxes through the roof; workers who strike all the time.   People can't set up companies or grow businesses because over regulation by the State which actually penalises you if you want to grow your business and have massive disincentives for employing more people.  Yes Motorways and TGV are good, but then they have huge areas which are not developed unlike us which makes it so hard and expensive to put in new roads or railways; whereas in France who have huge tracks of land virtually empty to buy and build on. Huge numbers of French people have come to our more liberal shores to set up and run businesses. France is effectively closed to international business whereas we are open and welcoming.  The huge growth in jobs in the UK and reduction in levels of unemployment has been very rapid over the last 2 years. In France Unemployment, and particularly long term and youth unemployment remain stuck at over 10% and getting worse.

Tuesday, April 28, 2015

Shares in Greece's stricken banks fell to an all-time low on Tuesday after fears the European Central Bank was planning to finally pull the plug on the country's lenders. A memo drawn up by the ECB's staff proposed capping the emergency assistance (ELA) that has been keeping lenders alive since the Syriza-led government entered office at the end of January. Bank stocks fell by 4pc on the news, capping off a torrid run which has seen more than 50pc wiped off the value of lenders since the start of the year. ... The greek government got elected by promising that there wouldn´t be a new bailout and that they would not take any more money from the ECB/Eurozone/IMF. Unless they accept a new bailout in June they will indeed go bankrupt. For all intents and purposes they are already bankrupt, they stopped paying all suppliers to the public sector already and that debt is 3 billion euros and rising. Who wants to sell anything to hospitals, universities and schools when you don´t get paid?...For the sake of Greek sovereignty and its citizens...I hope that they do default and give the institutions the finger! Sometimes freedom is more important than forever being a slave!...70-80 % of the debt is fictitious ( usury product and corruption ) ... Unilateral Delete is the only path to be followed the people's representatives in government and appeal to Greek and international courts  ... The funny thing is, they were going to extend and pretend until Syriza arrived on the scene, and now they're going to implode the whole of the financial system just to spite Syriza.