FRANCE - As the election comes down to the wire, many voters are choosing to vote for their political leanings and not necessarily their candidate.
According to the Ipsos poll, Hollande will recuperate 80% of voters from people who actually support far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The Socialist party had serious concerns that Mélenchon, the trendy candidate who has inspired huge support from the left, would hurt Hollande’s chances at the presidency.
On the other hand, Nicolas Sarkozy is only expected to earn only 45% of votes from right-leaning supporters of Marine Le Pen (of the Front National).
Racing for third place - Only two candidates will advance from the first round of French elections to the second, but the third candidate remains an important indicator of the election climate. Polls are reporting that the duel between Mélenchon and Le Pen for third place is turning in Le Pen’s favor. She is expected to get between 14% (reported by the BVA poll) and 17% (reported by the TNS Sofres poll). Mélenchon, on the other hand, is expected to get between 13% (TNS Sofres) and 15% (LH2).
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Mr Hollande says Mr Sarkozy has trapped France in a downward spiral of austerity and job losses, while Sarkozy says his rival is inexperienced and weak-willed and would spark financial panic through reckless spending pledges.
The eurozone debt crisis and France's sluggish growth and high unemployment have hung over the campaign, with Mr Sarkozy struggling to defend his record and Mr Hollande unable to credibly promise spending increases.
"I have never missed a vote, but this time I feel little enthusiasm for the election," said 62-year-old retired high schoolteacher Isabelle Provost as she emerged into bright Paris sunshine after casting her ballot.
UPDATE The first polls of the results of the first round of French presidential elections give the socialist candidate François Hollande more votes than outgoing President Nicolas Sarkozy. In France it is forbidden by law to deal with projections for the closure of polling stations (every 20 hours), but on the websites of Belgian and Swiss media dive now anyway estimates.
Nicolas Sarkozy with wife Carla Bruni at a polling station. © epa. François Hollande. © Reuters. Marine Le Pen. © getty. Jean-Luc Mélenchon. © Reuters.
Hollande given according to the polls between 27 and 29 percent of the vote, while Sarkozy to make do with 25 to 26 percent. Marine Le Pen, the candidate for the extreme right, gets 16 to 17 percent of the vote. This is also the third place exciting, because the extreme left-wing candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon follows at its heels with 14 to 16 percent of the vote. The centrist Francois Bayrou supports from 10 to 10.5 percent of the voting Frenchmen behind.
Centrist candidate Francois Bayrou won between 8.7 and 10 per cent, they said, and turnout was high at at least 80 per cent. That figure was down on the 84 percent turnout of 2007 but up significantly on the 72 percent of 2002. The two finalists will face off in round two on May 6, when Mr Hollande is expected to easily romp home. Polling began yesterday in France's overseas territories, and kicked off today on the mainland at 8am local time. All booths will close by 8pm. French polling agencies are permitted to take samples directly from ballot boxes, so have early accurate voting estimates. Under French law, these can only be made public after polls close. However, foreign media, particularly Swiss and Belgian news broadcasters, usually release estimations and exit polls as early as 6pm local time. Famously passionate about politics, the French have followed the campaign assiduously but have been deeply underwhelmed by the main candidates with the notable exception of Mr Mélenchon, whose Communist-backed Left Front coalition has made a strong breakthrough. Opinion polls and campaigning will restart on Monday in the build-up to the May 6 run-off, which Mr Hollande is expected to win by around 55 per cent to 45.
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