Saturday, July 28, 2012

The euro has completely broken down as a workable system and faces collapse with “incalculable economic losses and human suffering” unless there is a drastic change of course, according to a group of leading economists. Europe is “sleepwalking towards disaster”, according to the 17 experts, who warned that over the past few weeks “the situation in the debtor countries has deteriorated dramatically”. “The sense of a never ending crisis, with one domino falling after another, must be reversed. The last domino, Spain, is days away from a liquidity crisis,” said the economists. They include two members of Germany’s Council of Economic Experts and leading euro specialists at the London of School of Economics, all euro supporters. “This dramatic situation is the result of a eurozone system which, as currently constructed, is thoroughly broken. The cause is a systemic failure. It is the responsibility of all European nations that were parties to its flawed design, construction and implementation to contribute to a solution. Absent this collective response, the euro will disintegrate,” they added in a co-signed report for the Institute for New Economic Thinking. The warning came as contagion from Spain pushed Italy’s borrowing costs to danger levels, with two-year yields rocketing 40 basis points to more than 5pc. The Milan bourse tumbled 3pc, led by bank shares. Italian equities have been in freefall since it became clear two weeks ago that the EU’s June summit deal had failed to break the nexus between crippled banks and sovereign states.
The crisis is starting to ricochet back into Germany, where the PMI manufacturing index for July fell to its lowest since mid-2009. Doubts are emerging about the creditworthiness of the German state itself.
Well, I never thought I would admit it, but I am just another old “saddo” who writes all these comments with passion. This whole European saga goes on and on. We have seen our European leaders go through a wide spectrum of so-called solutions to the euro crisis, with tax hikes, austerity, unsustainable borrowing, a European central bank, and several other “solutions”, but the end result is always the same – the weaker countries get weaker, and even the almighty Germany now faces a downgrade by the credit rating agencies, because of their exposure to the debt crisis. There is only one solution to Europe’s problems, and that is to drop the idea of a single currency. In principle it was a great idea, but in practical terms it could never work. There is simply no way that each and everyone of the European economies with such widely different economy bases, from manufacturing to tourism, and many in between can hold the value of the euro to within the tight limits imposed. Almost all of Europe needs growth and increased tax revenue. This cannot be achieved against a background of high unemployment and businesses closing down. To create growth and tax revenue most of Europe needs to devalue its currency, but this is not possible whilst they have to adhere to the demands of the single currency. Despite several comments saying that the euro will survive, all I can say is they are wrong, the euro can't and never ever could work across the many different economies all across Europe. Make no mistake about it until the financial markets see that there is a credible solution to create growth and increased tax revenue across Europe as a whole, they will continue to remain in turmoil..... An association representing German banks has called for an extra year to implement tougher rules that would force them to hold more cash as a buffer against possible financial crises. The BVR group of private and public banks called for a delay until January 1, 2014 for the entry into force of the so-called Basel III regulations due to the "enormous technical restructuring and implementation work" needed. The planned implementation at the beginning of 2013 was "no longer realistic" said the group.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Germany, France Back Pledge to Save Euro
Merkel and Hollande threw their weight behind the pledge by the ECB's Draghi to protect the euro with decisive action, a crucial endorsement for the ECB's buying of beleaguered nations' bonds.
ECB to Discuss Rescue Plan With Bundesbank
Draghi Roars, but What Will He Do?
Did Draghi Not Check With Bundesbank?
Heard on the Street: Draghi's Talk Isn't Cheap

Anonymous said...

Weekend Investor
Breaking Up Banks Isn't All It's Cracked Up to Be
Intelligent Investor: This week, Sandy Weill called to break up the giant banks he helped create. Would it really make a difference?

Anonymous said...

Parched Earth
Ongoing drought conditions are causing myriad problems across the country.
Little rain coupled with sweltering temperatures are shriveling crops, shrinking rivers and fueling wildfires. The weather has communities putting curbs on water use and their citizens running to nearby pools for relief.

Anonymous said...

The federal government will flirt with its fifth-straight trillion-dollar deficit next year and is still on track to notch $25 billion in debt within a decade, the Obama administration predicted on Friday as it released an update of the country’s fiscal picture.

Spending in 2012 is actually running at a slower pace than the White House predicted in February, but will still reach $1.2 trillion — a fourth straight year. And the deficit for 2013 is now projected to be $991 billion, which is nearly 10 percent deeper than President Obama predicted in February when he sent his budget to Congress.

In a report, the White House said the deeper deficits next year are because taxes are running lower than expected and because some of the president’s stimulus payments have been pushed off until 2013.

The deficit in 2008, President George W. Bush’s last full year in office, was $459 billion — which was then a record. In 2009, which covered the last four months of Mr. Bush’s term and the first eight months of Mr. Obama’s term, the deficit ballooned to $1.4 trillion as the government coped with the Wall Street crisis.

Since then, deficits have remained stubbornly high, totaling $1.3 trillion in 2010 and 2011 and projected to reach $1.2 trillion this year.

The White House found some good news in the numbers, saying that over the next decade the deficit will be $240 billion lower. And the White House said the deficit is still on track to drop under $600 billion by 2017 — though it never goes lower than $543 billion in any year.

Anonymous said...

Then there is the looming fiscal cliff, shorthand for a series of tax rises and spending cuts that are due to take effect at the start of the year.

The Congressional Budget Office has warned that the US will sink back into recession if all the measures are allowed to pass. No one is expecting any clarity on this until after November’s presidential election.

Despite the pressure on consumers, whose spending accounts for about 70pc of the economy, yesterday’s figures were slightly better than had been forecast.

There was encouragement to take from them. Business spending accelerated to 7.2pc from 5.4pc in the first quarter. Companies’ willingness to build up their inventories added 0.3 of a percentage point to growth in the quarter. The housing sector also contributed

Anonymous said...

Après la Hongrie, le pays donne du fil à retordre à l'Union européenne qui ne peut que constater la difficulté de certains pays postcommunistes à s'arrimer à ses valeurs fondatrices.


Faut-il être pessimiste et titrer, comme l'hebdomadaire 22, «Adieu l'Europe»? Après la Hongrie de Viktor Orban, la Roumanie de Victor Ponta donne du fil à retordre à l'Union européenne qui avait pourtant d'autres chats à fouetter. Le Hongrois est de droite, le Roumain se dit de gauche, mais tous deux démontrent la fragilité de la construction européenne et la difficulté d'arrimer certains pays postcommunistes aux valeurs qui fondent l'UE.

Les rodomontades nationalistes du libéral Crin Antonescu ou de Victor Ponta («Mme Merkel ne vote pas en Roumanie») suffiraient à l'illustrer. Tout comme une violence verbale «digne des années 1990» selon le journal Evenimentul Zilei. Les métaphores de Victor Ponta, taxant Basescu de «président des voleurs», ou de Crin Antonescu, traitant le président déchu de «parasite d'État», prêteraient à sourire si elles ne reflétaient, selon l'ancien ministre des Affaires étrangères Teodor Baconschi, «des mentalités incapables de s'adapter à la culture démocratique».

Oligarques et barons locaux

Victor Ponta, 39 ans, représente pourtant la nouvelle génération du Parti social démocrate (PSD). Tout comme le Parti démocrate libéral (PDL) de Traian Basescu, le PSD est issu du Front de salut national, lui-même héritier du Parti communiste. Sous la houlette de l'ancien président Ion Iliescu puis de l'ex-premier ministre Adrian Nastase, il a dominé la scène politique pendant les quinze premières années de la transition. Il revendique une identité sociale-démocrate bien que ses élites soient composées d'oligarques et de barons locaux qui, suivant Baconschi, «contrôlent des pans entiers de l'économie nationale», cultivent le clientélisme selon des «méthodes mafieuses» et continuent de «percevoir l'UE comme quelque chose d'exotique».

Traian Basescu a ainsi accusé l'ex-sénateur Dan Voiculescu, richissime patron d'un empire de presse et, dit-on, ancien officier de la Securitate, la police politique communiste, d'être l'un des commanditaires de sa destitution. Début mai, c'est-à-dire dès l'entrée en fonction du gouvernement de Victor Ponta, Voiculescu, menacé lui-même d'un procès devant la Haute Cour de justice, avait prophétisé sur l'une de ses chaînes de télévision la chute programmée «dans soixante jours» du président…

La Roumanie était-elle prête en 2007 à intégrer l'UE? Non, sans doute, mais sans l'UE et ses garde-fous, assurent Teodor Baconschi et Alexander Gussi, ce maillon faible de la Nouvelle Europe «aurait déjà basculé dans le camp des États postsoviétiques en délicatesse avec une démocratie fonctionnelle». N'empêche, quel que soit l'épilogue de cette crise, les dégâts sont profonds. L'UE en sort davantage affaiblie et l'image de la classe politique roumaine plus ternie que jamais. Comme le reconnaît l'ancien premier ministre Emil Boc, «tous les progrès réalisés par la Roumanie pendant ces trois dernières années ont été pratiquement anéantis en deux mois».