Sunday, September 16, 2012

Even the ECB's support is not obvious. Monetary hawks – the Bundesbank and several other core central banks – who were worried about a new open-ended ECB mandate pushed successfully for strict and effective conditionality for countries benefiting from the bond purchases. As a result, they can pull the plug on the programme if its stringent criteria are not met.  Moreover, Greece could exit the eurozone in 2013, before Spain and Italy are successfully ringfenced; Spain – like Greece – is spiralling into depression, and may need a full-scale bailout by the "troika" (the ECB, the European commission, and the International Monetary Fund). Meanwhile, austerity fatigue in the eurozone periphery is increasingly clashing with bailout fatigue in the core.  Small wonder, then, that Germany, politically unable to vote on more bailout resources, has outsourced that job to the ECB, the only institution that can bypass democratically elected parliaments. But, again, liquidity provision alone – without policies to restore growth soon – would merely delay, not prevent, the breakup of the monetary union, ultimately taking down the economic/trade union and leading to the destruction of the single market.  In the United States, the latest economic data – including a weak labour market – confirm that growth is anaemic, with output in the second half of 2012 unlikely to be significantly stronger than the 1.6% annual gain recorded in January-June. And, given America's political polarisation and policy gridlock, we can expect more fights on the budget and the debt ceiling, another rating downgrade, and no agreement on a path toward medium-term fiscal consolidation and sustainability – regardless of whether Barack Obama is re-elected as president in November. On the contrary, we should expect agreement only on the path of least political resistance: avoidance of tough fiscal choices until the bond vigilantes eventually wake up, spike long rates, and force fiscal adjustment on the political system.....
"Ineffective governments with weak leadership are at the root of the problem. In democracies, repeated elections lead to short-term policy choices. In autocracies like China and Russia, leaders resist the radical reforms that would reduce the power of entrenched lobbies and interests, thereby fuelling social unrest as resentment against corruption and rent-seeking boils over into protest."
There are indeed two problems which could be called "ineffective governments" and "power of entrenched lobbies and interests" but I disagree with the implication that the former belongs only to "democracies" and the latter only to "autocracies".
Britain's "democratic" government is ineffective, but it's ineffective because its leaders resist radical reforms that would reduce the power of entrenched interests -- there is zero attempt to seriously address the overweening power of corporate wealth and its corruption of the political balance, and far from attempting to rectify Britain's diseased inequalty, the government seeks to demonise the most vulnerable people.
Judging by actions and policies, Britain's government is every bit as craven before wealth, and subjugated to corporate corruption, as China's. The millionaires around the Cabinet table regard the poorest and weakest in their society with just as much contempt as those in the Politburo.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Finnish Prime Minister Jyrki KatainenTuesday backed Spain in its "unfair" financial crisis and said he would not pressure it to seek a full sovereign bailout. Tuesday, 11 September 2012 what I love is the idea of the ones who want need the help but then please knock my door on the Tuesday morning as the Monday; you know how busy the first day of the week is all busy, busy. See me on the other working day While Deutsche Bank on Tuesday unveiled a crash diet to survive in a less profitable investment banking world, saying it will take a 4 billion euro ($5.1 billion) restructuring charge and move 125 billion euros worth of risky assets into a non-core unit. Katainen, addressing a Madrid economic forum before meeting with Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, said he did not like to speculate whether Spain would need a bailout like Greece, Portugal and Ireland. The bank will not ask its shareholders for new capital but instead shrink its balance sheet and cut costs to meet stricter regulations, it said, pleasing investors who pushed the stock up over one percent ?We all must concentrate on opportunities to avoid extra bailout packages and I think we can work so that the euro area can support all countries to solve their own problems. We still have lots of opportunities," he said. . Where are the leaders going and taking us? I thank you Firozali A.Mulla DBA

Anonymous said...



It's the Germans who worry me. Angela Merkell is Hitler dressed in womens clothes. Sure she doesn't have any death camps but she's trying to take Europe over via the backdoor of the eurozone. it's the Bundesbank which pulls her strings

Anonymous said...

The most shocking thing about this all is the settirng up of the European Stability mechanism ESM. It includes articles exempting people and documents from access or prosecution such as:-

Article 35, para 1: In the interest of the ESM, the Chairperson of the Board of Governors, Governors, alternate Governors, Directors, alternate Directors, as well as the Managing Director and other staff members shall be immune from legal proceedings with respect to acts performed by them in their official capacity and shall enjoy inviolability in respect of their official papers and documents.

Anonymous said...

Please the slate draws many lines but they are soon erased Can you give us something that will not rot, go away easily , rub out fast and we can get more jobs . We after all depend on the jobs not the lines . You keep those give jobs it will keep many families happy they will bless you on this Sunday but no line jobs I thank you Promises all give jobs few and I detest the demagogue as they talk like the geram leader but drives all crazy and they do what HE telles them to do. This is UK not Germany Churchill nor Maggi are in You are alone screaming at the top of the head I thank you Firozali A.Mulla DBA