The writing is on the wall! With Weidermann's Bundesbank opening battle lines
against Draghi's ECB its now clear that further state bail-outs, debt
naturalization and fiscal transfers are off the menu. Spain and other debtor EMU
nations are obviously being lined up for the ultimate solution; a Cyprus style
write-down of private bank deposits. Watch the Spanish Euro denominated money
supply collapse as funds deluge northwards into Deutche Euros and Sterling, the
latter possibly becoming an alternative currency for individuals and business
fleeing from monetary persecution and financial ruin. Germany’s constitutional
court will rule on the legality of the bond rescue plan on June 12. It gave a
provisional go-ahead last September for other parts of the EMU rescue machinery,
but limited Germany’s bail-out share to €190bn (£160bn). Crucially, it warned
that the Bundestag may not alienate its tax and spending powers to any
supra-national body or be exposed to “unlimited” liabilities. “If the court
rules against OMT, it means the end of the euro. The stakes are so high that I
don’t see how they could just pull the trigger,” said Mats Persson from Open
Europe. He said the Draghi plan is a legal hot potato because it is, by
definition, unlimited. “The previous rulings by the court have all been
predicated on this point.” German historian Michael Stürmer said the tough
report is a bid by the Bundesbank to “reassert its primacy”. “They have told the
ECB in no uncertain terms that it is exceeding its mandate. Angela Merkel may be
smiling because this helps her set limits in Europe.” Prof Sturmer said the
forthcoming ruling - wider than just the Draghi plan - is “much more serious”
than last September’s judgment, limited to an injunction brought by eurosceptic
groups. “This is about issues of sovereignty. I don't think the Court will dare
to issue a ruling before the elections in September. They will procrastinate,”
he said. The court has some jurisdiction over ECB policy because it intrudes on
the German Grundgesetz, or Basic Law. “Once the ECB starts bailing out states it
is moving into dangerous waters,” he said. The court made a glancing reference
to OMT in September, stating that ECB bond purchases “aimed at financing the
members budgets is prohibited, as it would circumvent the ban on monetary
financing”. The bond markets ignored the leaked report on Friday, confident that
the court will once again find some formula to avert a crisis. It could cite a
clause in the Lisbon Treaty stating that the ECB has a duty to “support the
general economic policies in the Union”, which would include saving the euro.
“They might refer the case to the European Court but that would leave the Sword
of Damocles hanging over the market for another two years,” said David Marsh,
author of books on the Bundesbank and EMU. “I think use of OMT is practically
impossible until this is resolved.” Sovereign bond strategist Nicholas Spiro
said markets are “sick and tired” of the eurozone debt crisis and have stopped
paying attention to the detail. “There is this ravenous hunt for yield and they
think there is all this money coming from Japan. But it has long been unclear
whether OMT is real or just a myth, and the eurozone’s underlying economic
crisis is still getting worse. The window of opportunity created by Draghi has
been wasted. “If the court sides with the Bundesbank in any way the whole house
of cards could come crashing down.” “If the court sides with the Bundesbank in
any way the whole house of cards could come crashing down.” Although I believe
the Court should do so, in no way means that it will, far more likely the can
gets kicked farther down the road, such is the nature of the beast we are
dealing with. Drahgi, Rumpoy and Barosso sit there smugly in their ivory towers
secure in the knowledge that they have the world by the short hairs so to speak,
well I fear the world has had enough of the troublesome eu and it will all end
sometime soon, for my part the sooner the better......Kill the euro and the EU
!!!!
3 comments:
The Spanish economy continues to buckle under record high unemployment of 27% and rapidly declining house price values.
With ratings agency Standard and Poor’s predicting that property prices could fall another 13% by year end the prognosis looks grim not only in Spain but for the rest of Europe as well.
A grim tale indeed, and one which will set the scene for a meeting tonight between the new Italian prime minister, Enrico Letta, and German chancellor Angela Merkel.
Having won hist first confidence vote last night (see Monday's blog), Letta faces a second one in the Italian Senate today. But visit to Berlin this evening will could be more exciting, following his pledge to spare Italy from 'fiscal consolidation alone'.
There could also be drama in Cyprus today, as its parliament votes on the terms of the country's bailout deal. The plan is expected to be passed with a narrow majority, but there could be fiery criticism of the way the deal was (mis)-handled.
It could be another morning of bad economic news in Europe, as the ongoing recession hits firms and forces more people out of work.
The latest eurozone unemployment data, due at 10am BST, is expected to show the region's jobless rate has risen to a new record high of 12.1% in March (from 12% last month).
Italy's unemployment rate is also forecast to increase, showing the challenges facing its new government as it strives to drag the country back to growth.
And in Spain, new GDP data will doubtless confirm that the country's economy contracted again in the first three months of 2013 (economists expect a fall of 0.5%).
“Italy is dying from fiscal consolidation. Growth policies cannot wait any longer,” he told Italy’s parliament. He said the country is in “very serious” crisis after a decade of stagnation and warned of violent protest if the social malaise deepens.
The grand coalition of Left and Right - the first since the late 1940s - will abolish the hated IMU tax on primary residences, a wealth levy imposed by ex-premier Mario Monti, and push for tax cuts for business and young people to pull the country out of perma-slump. A rise in VAT to 22pc in July may be delayed.
Vice-premier Angelo Alfano - the appointee of ex-premier Silvio Berlusconi - said he agreed with every word from “beginning to end”, as the Berlusconi camp claimed “total victory” over the policy agenda.
Mr Letta said Italy would abide by EU budget pledges and but in reality he seems to have broken with the core demands of the EU fiscal compact.
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