Thursday, May 2, 2013

Source - Hotnews.ro - good analysis

A few days ago, Welt am Sonntag published a statement by Kai Konrad, economic advisor to Chancellor Merkel, by which he expressed his doubt about the chances of survival of the unified currency for more than five years. According to Konrad, the international press has also taken on the statements of the president of Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann, according to whom Europe would need about 10 years to overcome the debt crisis. Fortunately, Europe's "rescue" from the straitjacket of the Euro may come a lot faster. A secret report of the Bundesbank, sent to the Federal Constitutional Court in December 2012, recently "leaked" in the pages of the financial daily Handelsblatt. In this report, the "Bundesbank launched punctual attacks against every statement made by Mario Draghi to justify the program of Direct Monetary Transactions", Ambrose Evans-Pritchard wrote in The Telegraph. The authenticity of the report was confirmed by the Bundesbank, according o a piece of news by Reuters.
Upon the announcement of the DMT program, Draghi justified the buying of the government bonds by saying that "the major interest rate differential should not be tolerated". For the Bundesbank, which is concerned that the unlimited bond buying program undermines the independence of the ECB, "a uniform level of the interest rates is not desirable", the article of Handelsblatt writes. The reason is simple: the differences between the interest rates of the various government bonds should reflect the economic performance of the country in question. Given the fact that "risk and responsibility should not be decoupled", as recently stated by Chancellor Merkel, the Bundesbank estimates that it is this very principle that violates the European rescue plan. The document of the Central Bank of Germany also mentions that the buying of bonds issued by troubled countries involves the risk of major losses for the ECB, if they were forced to leave the Eurozone. Such an event is no longer conceivable for the Bundesbank.  For analyst Harvinder Sian, of RBS, "the Bundesbank report borders on economic warfare", and the markets could react negatively amid the uncertainty concerning the approval of the Direct Monetary Transactions of the ECB. Even though the disagreements between Weidmann and Draghi are nothing new, especially since the president of the Bundesbank was singled by the chairman of the ECB as the only opponent of the plant to monetize European sovereign debts, "the aggressive tone of the report shocked the economists", according to Evans-Pritchard. As if all the criticism of the Bundesbank concerning the desperate measures proposed by Draghi wasn't enough, the document of the German Central Bank also contains the supreme "heresy": "The ECB does not have a mandate to maintain the current structure of the monetary union", as its only goal is price stability. This was also the opinion of government advisor Kai Konrad: "It is Europe that matters to me. Not the euro".  The German constitutional court will decide on the legality of the DMT plan on June 12th, 2013, about two months prior to the German general elections. The decision of the Court of September 2012, concerning the constitutionality of the European Stability Mechanism has also included an important clarification: "The acquisition of government bonds by the ECB, directed towards the financing of the national budgets, is prohibited, because it breaks the interdiction of monetizing debt", as written by The Telegraph. "A decision of the Constitutional Court against the TMD will mean the end of the Euro", said Mats Persson, of Open Europe, for The Telegraph, and German historian Michael Stürmer sees the report of the Bundesbank as "an attempt to reaffirm its predominant role in the Eurosystem".  The report sent to the Constitutional Court of Germany by the Bundes-bank will undoubtedly generate numerous political conflicts, both domestically and on a European level, and the "friends" of the European currency will find it increasingly difficult to protect their positions.  It is not out of the question that by the end of this year, we will see a rare convergence of the European authorities: the Euro has to die for Europe to live.
 

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Marches are already getting underway in Athens this morning.

The communist affiliated PAME union's rally started at 10.30am local time (8.30am BST) in Syntagma Square, in the centre of the Greek capital. Other ralles are also taking

The private sector union GSEE union and the public sector union ADEDY will begin their rally at 11am (Living in Greece has more details) at Kafthmonos Square in central Athens.

Transport links are affected by the strike -- with ferry services suspended today and some train services starting late.

Schools and hospitals are also likely to be affected by the walkout.

Anonymous said...

Spain's May Day protests were well-attended, with thoudsands of people taking part in a Labour Day match in Madrid.

Some carried flags and placards and slogans such as "austerity ruins and kills" and "reforms are robbery".
Demonstrators march during a Labor Day rally organized by Spanish two big trade-union confederations, CCOO and UGT, in Puerta del Sol square, in Madrid, central Spain, on 01 May 2013.Demonstrators in Puerta del Sol square, in Madrid, central Spain, on 01 May 2013. Photograph: J. J. GUILLEN/EPA
Spain's unemployment level has now hit a record-breaking 27%, and it's economy has now been shrinking for the last seven quarters.

Candido Mendez, head of the UGT union, declared:


[there has never been a May 1 with more reason to take to the streets

Anonymous said...

Worrying economic signals from America


A splurge of weak economic data from the US has added to concerns over the strength of the American economy, and its labour market.

• US firms are hiring new employees at their lowest rate in seven months. The monthly ADP national employment report missed forecasts, coming in at 119,000 new employees (not the 150,000 expected by economists).

• Construction spending in the US fell by 1.7% in March.

• The monthly manufacturing survey, or PMI, fell to 50.7 in April, down from 51.3 in March.

• The oil price has tumbled by $3 per barrel after new data showed a sharp jump in oil inventories in the last week.

That rise in oil prices could signal a drop in demand as economic activity stalls, although there are other reasons...

Anonymous said...

There were hundreds of events in Germany today to mark May Day -- unions say that over 400,000 people took part.

Europe's economic plight was on the mind of Michael Sommer, head of the DGB federation of German labour unions, who argued that the region's largest economy should do more to help the rest.


We cannot allow this continent to be 'kaputtgespart' - forced to save so much that it breaks apart.

There was also tension between union marchers, and seperate rallies organised by far-right groups.

Anonymous said...

Italy's new prime minister, Enrico Letta, appeared to enjoy a cordial visit to Paris today to meet Francois Hollande.

Letta's mesage that Europe needs a new growth strategy clearly chimed with the French president's own views.

Letta said he was "100 percent satisfied" with his meeting with Hollande, and told reporters he hopes to stimulate Italian economic growth and cut taxes.


Our government's choice is to maintain the commitments we have made towards the European Union and, within those commitments, to make the choices which we think are needed for our country to have more room for growth and lower taxes.

Hollande also offered support, stating that:


Europe has to do the maximum it can for growth.

No new policies, though, and Letta didn't bow to pressure from members of his new coalition to tear up Italy's deficit targets.

Anonymous said...

Workers around the world united in anger during May Day rallies Wednesday from fury in Europe over austerity measures that have cut wages, reduced benefits and eliminated many jobs altogether, to rage in Asia over relentlessly low pay, the rising cost of living and hideous working conditions that have left hundreds dead in recent months.

In protests, strikes and other demonstrations held in cities across the planet, activists lashed out at political and business leaders they allege have ignored workers' voices or enriched themselves at the expense of laborers. In some places, the demonstrations turned violent, with activists clashing with police.

Many nations have been struggling with economic downturns for several years now, and workplace disasters in developing countries are nothing new, but the intensity of some of Wednesday's gatherings suggested workers' frustrations have grown especially acute, with many demanding immediate action to address their concerns.

The anger was painfully evident in Bangladesh, where the collapse last week of an illegally built eight-story facility housing multiple garment factories killed more than 400 in a Dhaka suburb. The building collapse followed a garment factory fire in November that killed 112 people in the country, and it has increased the pressure on the global garment industry to improve working conditions.

A loud procession of thousands of workers wound through central Dhaka on Wednesday. Many waved the national flag and demanded the death penalty for the now-detained owner of the doomed building. From a loudspeaker on the back of a truck, a participant spoke for the throngs gathered: "My brother has died. My sister has died. Their blood will not be valueless."

The Bangladesh tragedy drew a denunciation from Pope Francis during a private Mass at the Vatican. He blasted what he called the "slave" wages of those who died, many of whom were being buried Wednesday as other bodies were still being pulled from the rubble. Francis criticized the focus on "balance books" and personal profit that he said are tied to the failure to pay workers fair wages.

In Greece and Spain, increasing numbers of people are losing their jobs as governments grappling with a debt crisis have been cutting spending, raising taxes and pursuing other stinging austerity measures. Both countries have unemployment rates hovering just above 27 percent.
Unions in Greece held a May Day strike that brought ferry and train services to a halt, and organized peaceful protest marches through central Athens. The country, which nearly went bankrupt in 2010, is now in its sixth year of a deep recession and is dependent on international bailout loans.

While the austerity drive has succeeded in reducing high budget deficits, it has been at a huge cost: under the terms of its latest loan disbursement, Athens has agreed to sack about 15,000 civil servants through 2014.

"We are here to send a message to ... those in power in Europe, that we will continue our struggle against unfair, open-ended policies that are destroying millions of jobs on a national and European level," said Kostas Tsikrikas, leader of Greek public sector labor union ADEDY.

More than 100,000 Spaniards infuriated by austerity measures and economic recession took to the streets of some 80 cities in trade union-organized rallies Wednesday, with the largest protests in Madrid, Barcelona and Bilbao.

Anonymous said...

For anyone who still seriously considers voting for the Conservative party - either in the local or national elections: ask yourself one question:

Would the EU puppet Cameron ever have offered a referendum on EU membership, were it not for UKIP rising in the polls?

Two months earlier, Cameron said that he saw 'no need for a referendum'.

Three months later, after 'offering' one, he attacked Labour for ignoring the democratic and legitimate wishes of British people!!

The man is a vain and totally directionless puppet of Frau Merkel and the EU gangsters - just like the leaders of the other two major UK parties.

We should all thank God that UKIP is rising up to threaten these utter traitors to Britain who have sold this country down the river for so many years - to a situation where now, 75% of our laws are written and passed in Brussels, not in Westminster.

If you love this country - and want at this very late hour to save it from the EU and the unlimited immigration of millions of largely unskilled immigrants taking jobs from British people at lower wages, and draining the welfare budget, then you simply HAVE TO get out today and VOTE UKIP.

Otherwise, if you want to know your future - just look at what the other 3 parties have done to this country over the last 10 years.

Anonymous said...

New Spanish tax laws affecting an estimated 200,000 British expats, have sparked panic, prompting some to leave the country or hand in their residence cards at town halls before today's deadline (30 April), fearing a Cyprus-style money grab.


Opponents, including Spanish politicians, have branded the new asset declaration law discriminatory, and fear an exodus of EU residents from the fragile economies of the coastal towns.


Russell Thomson, the former British Consul for Alicante, Spain, has led a petition to the EU, branding the law unlawful and discriminatory against non-Spanish residents.


The Spanish government requires that any resident with an overseas asset worth more than €50,000 and who lives in Spain at least six months (183 days) of the year is affected – and must declare what they own abroad.


Failure to declare or any errors in any of the 720 online forms will result in a penalty of €10,000 or more.


As relatively few Spaniards have assets outside of Spain, those most affected are EU residents, the vast majority of which are British pensioners and retirees who have homes in the UK and, or, rely on UK pension funds and trusts for their income.


They are required to declare UK bank account numbers, mortgages and other details, via professional intermediaries, in an online format, considered risky by many.


Any delays or errors will attract hefty penalties. No information has been given as to what will be done with the data. The new law was passed in November 2012, but the majority did not find out until several months ago via the local English-language newspapers.