Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Once every six weeks, the most powerful players in the global economy meet on the 18th floor of an ugly office building near the train station in the Swiss city of Basel. The group includes United States Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and her counterpart at the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi, along with 16 other top monetary policy officials from Beijing, Frankfurt, Paris and elsewhere.
The attendees spend almost two hours exchanging views in a debate chaired by Bank of Mexico Governor Agustín Carstens. Waiters serve an exquisite meal and expensive wine as the central bankers talk about the economy, growth and market prices. No one keeps minutes, but the world's most influential money managers are convinced that the meetings help expand their knowledge in important ways. "We learn what makes our counterparts tick," says one attendee.
These closed-door meetings, which are held on Sunday evenings, have a long tradition. But ever since many central banks lowered their interest rates to almost zero, bought up sovereign debt and rescued banks, a new, critical undertone has crept into the dinner conversations. Monetary experts from emerging economies complain that the measures taken by Europeans and Americans are pushing unwanted speculative money their way. Western central bankers say they have come under growing political pressure. And recently, when the host of the meetings -- head of the Basel-based Bank for International Settlements Jaime Caruana -- speaks in one of his rare public appearances, he talks about "chronic post-crisis weakness" and "risk." Monetary institutions, says Caruana, are at "serious risk of exhausting the policy room for manoeuver over time."
These are unusual words, especially now that the world's central bankers, five years after the Lehman crash, are more powerful than ever. They set interest rates and control the money supply, oversee governments and banks and, like Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, are treated a bit like movie stars by the public.
To an extent unprecedented in postwar history, monetary watchdogs -- who are not elected and are usually independent of their countries' governments -- determine what happens in politics and on the markets. They are the new "masters of the universe." Yet their internal discussions on the effects of their power do not give the impression of resounding success. Growth is limping along in the world's major economies; banks, households and governments are deeply in debt; and the bankers' so-called unconventional monetary policy is running up against its limits everywhere.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

The sight of Russia committing economic suicide is going to be well worth watching.
We can expect the German nuclear reactors to restart soon.
Putin gone within 6 months 1:3 odds on.Did you already forget that the US and Europe's recovery are a mirage created by printing money and deluding markets with false and unsustainable promises? What do you think a real economic shock such as cutting off vital oil and gas supplies to Europe will do? Not to mention the obvious fact that Germany was still buying Russia's gas and oil even when its nuclear reactors were running.

If anything, it seems that the highly indebted Europe will suffer more than Russia with its substantial government reserves. Don't worry about the Rouble either or a flight from Russian bond markets: Moody's and Fitch have estimated Russian companies have enough cash flow to cover their debt obligations in 2014 without government assistance.

Anonymous said...

The American neocon organised and financed coup has turned an economic mess in the Ukraine into a total disaster. It is now also threatening the energy supplies of Western Europe's economic mess into complete chaos. Yet, the European media and politicians continue to regurgitate US propaganda, which is completely against the interests of European populations. This is an extremely dangerous development, because anyone objective and intelligent can see through these lies. When populations no longer trust their Governments and media ; when our Lords and Masters, become totally discredited - with any integrity they once appeared to have, disappeared in a cloud of explosive Russian Gas, then total collapse of civilisation into anarchy is seriously threatened.

If our Governments do not stand up to these crazy Americans, who are trying to destroy both Europe and Russia, purely in their own selfish interests, in much the way they have already destroyed so many countries across the World, then the point comes, that they will be removed. The danger is that what replaces them will be even worse than what we have already got.....Aha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

Anonymous said...

Greece and the primary surplus. It is totally artificial and I have posted before pretty much how it was manufactured and the enormous risks for the latter part of 2014 (after the May elections- municipal and MEP) incurred by these manipulations. Even Schaeuble issying Greece wiull need support through 2016.
Far from all of the Greek press view it as a trick BTW. The still powerful PASOK papers are reporting it as real economic improvement, the bond issue is in there and the tiny retreat of unemployment, and with a public sector - 52% of the economy that still, although diminishing rapidly, supports PASOK these views arestill largely held.
However there is an enormous political adjunct to primary surplus in that the troika have said such a surplus is the the key to the door of debt renegotiation, not debt forgiveness, simply making debt repayment less spiky and less of a steep slope. This will be fine until the ECB has to raise rates, about end 2016, to keep Germany happy. But for the man in the street this means a light at the ennd of the tunnel.