"As long as the Greek crisis rumbles on, more people are buying into the
belief that the country is a special case, and the ECB will act to make
sure the rest of the members stay in the union."
Of course the ECB will act as above. The ECB is one of the seven institutions of the EU. The others being:
European Council
European Commission
European Parliament
Council of the European Union
Court of Justice of the European Union
European Court of Auditors
There won't be any Grexident. More bailing out by the back door coupled with renewed determination of ever closer union . There is no legal instrument, under the Maastricht Treaty, that allows Greece to be 'forced' out of the Euro against it's wishes. Similarly, there is no legal instrument, under the same Treaty, that allows Greece to leave the Euro unilaterally. If Greece does leave the Euro it can only take place with the full agreement of all the parties involved. And if that were to occur then Greece would still remain a member of the EU and as such would be entitled to full financial support of the EU, as it is receiving now. So whichever way Greece decides to go the EU/Eurozone will be picking up the bill for a long time to come...simple mathematical reality is catching up with the situation fast. Whatever inference Christine Lagarde wants to draw from Varoufakis's vague assurances about Greece meeting it's obligations, that IMF payment simply won't happen if they don't have the euros to make it. Looking at the timetable of the coming 7 days, with a lot of payments due and the orthodox Easter weekend, it looks like the optimal moment for Greece to face the fact that the Euro game is up. We'll know one way or the other on Friday, if we hear that the payment was missed and reports come in that the Greek army is on the streets guarding bank branches.
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