Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Unfortunately, the new year's resolutions made in Europe and America were the wrong ones. The response to the private sector failures and profligacy that had caused the crisis was to demand public sector austerity. The consequence will almost surely be a slower recovery and an even longer delay before unemployment falls to acceptable levels. There will also be a decline in competitiveness. While China has kept its economy going by making investments in education, technology and infrastructure, Europe and America have been cutting back. Debt restructuring – writing down the debts of homeowners and, in some cases, governments – will be key. It will eventually happen. But delay is very costly – and largely unnecessary. Banks never wanted to admit to their bad loans and now they don't want to recognise the losses, at least not until they can adequately recapitalise themselves through their trading profits and the large spread between their high lending rates and rock-bottom borrowing costs. The financial sector will press governments to ensure full repayment, even when it leads to massive social waste, huge unemployment and high social distress – and even when it is a consequence of their own mistakes in lending.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Bankers' forecasts on the RON/euro exchange rate in 2011
astăzi, 00:10 Autor: Liviu Chiru
Players on the forex market, where nearly 400 billion euros are traded every year, say the euro will remain in the 4.2 RON region this year, as well.
The euro will remain above 4.2 RON at least until March, although the RON started the year with a surprising appreciation, after the exchange rate had seen only slight fluctuations around 4.3 RON per euro in the first part of 2010.
Only towards the yearend is a stronger RON possible, but until then there remain a few questions, say experts who answered ZF's request for a forecast on the euro's progression across 2011.

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Anonymous said...

East Balkan Properties (EBP), companie cu o expunere de 59% pe piaţa imobiliară românească, a vândut 51% din compania care controla centrele comerciale Vitantis Shopping Center din Bucureşti şi Moldova Mall din Iaşi unei firme controlate de George Teleman, partener în cadrul Equest Investments România. Preţul a fost unul simbolic de 5 euro, însă noul proprietar a preluat şi datoriile companiei.

„Noi făceam şi asset management şi property management, iar EBP avea datorii la noi. Preţul de 5 euro este simbolic, deoarece am preluat datoriile pe care investitorii le aveau faţă de noi. Noi am administrat cele două proprietăţi timp de cinci ani şi le cunoaştem foarte bine. E logic să avem o preferinţă pentru ele. Tranzacţia a fost puţin grăbită pentru a prinde 31 decembrie, însă vom vorbi de strategie după ce se mai aşează lucrurile. Dat fiind faptul că Equest este în disposal mode (în retragere de pe piaţă n.red) e normal să vrem să achiziţionăm şi restul participaţiei, însă nu e o tranzacţie speculativă. Vrem să administrăm în continuare cele două proprietăţi până ce îşi revine piaţa, după care să le vindem când randamentul se va apropia de ceea ce a fost. Oricum acest lucru nu se va întâmpla mai repede de 3-5 ani“, a declarat în exclusivitate pentru Capital George Teleman, noul acţionar majoritar al celor două mall-uri.