Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Switzerland sparked fears of a new currency war on Tuesday after it pegged the Swiss franc against the euro in an attempt to protect its economy from the European debt crisis. The Swiss National Bank in effect devalued the franc, pledging to buy "unlimited quantities" of foreign currencies to force down its value. The SNB warned that it would no longer allow one Swiss franc to be worth more than €0.83 – equivalent to SFr1.20 to the euro – having watched the two currencies move closer to parity as Switzerland became a "safe haven" from the ravages of the eurozone crisis. The move stunned currency traders, and sent the Swiss franc tumbling against other currencies. Jeremy Cook, chief economist at currency brokers World First, said it was "intervention on a grand scale", and the start of a "new battle in the currency wars". "That was the single largest foreign exchange move I have ever seen … The Swiss franc has lost close on 9% in the past 15 minutes. This dwarfs moves seen post-Lehman brothers, 7/7, and other major geo-political events in the past decade," Cook said. The SNB pledged to enforce a "substantial and sustained weakening of the Swiss franc", adding that it might move to an even lower exchange rate against the euro if needed. The current massive overvaluation of the Swiss franc poses an acute threat to the Swiss economy and carries the risk of a deflationary development," said Switzerland's central bank. "Most interventions in the currency markets by the authorities of late have only helped prices in the short term at best. If the euro crisis intensifies there is every chance the market could test the SNB's resolve to hold the cross rate above the 1.20 level.

192 comments:

Anonymous said...

Paul Mackel, senior foreign exchange strategist at HSBC
The Swiss National Bank's move is somewhat sudden and aggressive. However, it needs to be aggressive to turn the tide for the Swiss franc (SFr) and to take the shine off its "safe haven" status. So, this is an endurance contest whereby the SNB needs to fight hard against a market that could soon test its resolve. Putting EUR-SFr at 1.20 today is the easy part. Keeping it there or significantly above will be difficult if the world still looks like a gloomy place.

The SNB has been down this road in the past back in October 1978 when a floor against the deutschmark was introduced. But this ultimately had undesirable consequences as inflation skyrocketed, reaching more than 7% in 1981. Not great for a central bank that is meant to be focused on price stability.

The Swiss authorities will remember the experiences of the late 1970s.

The problems the Swiss faced back then are somewhat similar to today. That is, the SFr strength back then was partly a function of lax US monetary policy and a weak US dollar – sound familiar?

The upward pressure on the SFr only started to fade when the US in particular started to fight back against inflation. This should serve as a reminder that if the Swiss go down the same path as before, their concern over the SFr will not truly dissipate until the world outside Switzerland looks like a better place. The past shows that there were high costs associated with a temporary move towards targeting the exchange rate.

Anonymous said...

Clive Lennox, head of foreign exchange trading at Clear Currency
EUR/SFr is trading up 8.8%, almost a Richter scale measurement, such was the size of the tremor created by the Swiss National Bank decision to set a floor for the EUR-SFr rate at 1.20.

In what is a bold and potentially crippling move, the SNB has pitched up bearing all its artillery in what appears to be a last-ditch effort to shield the Swiss economy from excessive SFr appreciation.


Jeremy Cook, chief economist at currency brokers, World First
That was the single largest foreign exchange move I have ever seen. The Swiss franc has lost close on 9% in the past 15 minutes. This dwarfs moves seen post-Lehman brothers, 7/7, and other major geo-political events in the past decade.

The Swiss have had enough and have said today that they are willing to buy foreign currencies in "unlimited amounts". This is intervention on a grand scale.

This turns up the heat on the eurozone and other economies who have benefited from weakening their currency in the past couple of years.

Anonymous said...

Louise Cooper, markets analyst at BGC Partners
In the long term, intervention in the currency markets does not work. Yes, the move today has been large but maybe that is because there was a lot of speculative players long the Swiss franc and they are cutting positions - let's face it, you don't want to stand in the way when a National central bank is on the other side of a trade.

However, the market is bigger than the Swiss National Bank. Markets can not be manipulated forever. The Japanese example with Yen intervention teaches us that intervention can work in the very short term but changing long term global currency flows is near impossible - a lesson that the UK learnt from George Soros!

The main reason for Swissie strength is the flight to safety. If and when investors start getting more keen on risk, then the Swiss Franc will weaken, but at the moment all I see is evidence of fear - we are back to almost single digit price/earnings ratios on European stock markets, the 10 year bund yield is at 1.9%, gold is up again at record levels and bank shares are at post Lehman prices.

I see no signs that investors are willing to take risk on. With so much fear around, there will still be demand for the Swiss Franc

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