Showing posts with label consulting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label consulting. Show all posts

Monday, January 19, 2015

Top 10 Imports to USA
1. Oil: $389.3 billion (16.7% of total US imports)
2. Machines, engines, pumps: $311.2 billion (13.4%)
3. Electronic equipment: $303.5 billion (13%)
4. Vehicles: $253.3 billion (10.9%)
5. Medical, technical equipment: $72.1 billion (3.1%)
6. Gems, precious metals, coins: $67 billion (2.9%)
7. Pharmaceuticals: $63.4 billion (2.7%)
8. Organic chemicals: $54.7 billion (2.3%)
9. Furniture, lighting, signs: $51.4 billion (2.2%)
10. Plastics: $46.5 billion (2%)

In 2013, total U.S. trade with foreign countries was $5.02 trillion. This consisted of $2.272 trillion in exports and $2.744 trillion in imports of both goods and services. This makes the U.S. the world's third largest exporter, after the European Union (EU) and China, and the world's second largest importer, after the EU.
America is in the Global Economy. If cutoff, it would most likely collapse pretty quickly.
The markets are correct to worry about a slowdown, because the main reason for the fall in oil prices is simply a lack of demand, possibly supplemented by some geopolitical shenanigans.
Whilst the fall in the price of petrol and diesel is to be welcomed, these low crude oil prices are unlikely to last, and will depend on how much financial pain oil producing nations and energy companies can stand. Beyond 12 months or thereabouts too many energy companies will have, or be in the process of going bust. To delay bankruptcy, many energy companies are already cutting back on investment in newer more expensive sources of oil, especially for US oil shale where rig counts are already falling as US Rig Count Continues To Plunge To 10-Month Lows reveals. If this reduction in supply capacity goes too far it will result in future shortage and higher prices.
These low prices are a mixed blessing so make the most of them while they last.

Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Indeed...

Indeed ... A form of  dictatorship is the only way that the EU CAN work. Fascism - where the state comes before the individual - same with the EU - the EU project comes before EVERYTHING and EVERYBODY else. It must not fail !!!! People eating out of bins in Athens....50% youth unemployment.....convicted murderers roming Europe at will.....who cares, so long as the Eurocrats get their fat pension - all in the name of 'a democratic Europe' - apparently. Let's hope the EU gradually disappears up its own backside. Is it really such a big deal for Greece to leave the Eurozone? Yes, they will default on their debts, but this is only virtual money and the debtors (ie Germany) were not going to see very much of it back in any case. There will be some months of turbulance whilst they create a new currency and agree on an exchange rate ....the average person will be better off as he will suddenly have a load of New Drachma's in his pocket ...the rich will keep their Euros in their various non-Greek accounts...but then the country can start to benefit from an influx of holiday makers and increased competitiveness for their industry, which is responsible for 60% of their exports. They will still be in the European Union and benefit from the open market....as will the rest of the Union....That's the worse case scenario for the EU. Other countries would see that life is better outside euro. Some countries would also want to exit and some countries that are meant to join would refuse to do so.   I want to think that Berlin and Paris will not cause any more pain on Greece, but on the other hand, if Greece exits and it is a success, the Francogerman monetary union can seriously collapse. So, I suspect that Berlin and Paris would still try to make life difficult for Greece outside the euro.

Monday, October 27, 2014

Europe was alight with speculation on Friday about verdicts on the financial health of the region’s 130 largest lenders.
The big question was - and, well 25 failed -  which banks might fail the central bank’s review and how much new capital might be needed for the banks to survive. Estimates of the capital shortfall varied widely, from about 10 billion euros, or about $12.6 billion, to as much as €50 billion. The central bank’s review was based on figures at the end of 2013. Banks that have not passed muster and have not taken steps to shore up their finances will have nine months to top up their reserves. Otherwise, they risk being shut down. The central bank noted the results would not be final until approved by its governing council Sunday morning. “Until that time, any media reports on the outcome of the tests are by their nature highly speculative,” it said. Banks were informed of the preliminary results of the review and stress tests on Thursday. They will not know for sure whether they passed or failed until Sunday, shortly before the public disclosure. Most analysts expected the shortfall to be relatively modest, in part because bankers have known for a year that the test was coming and have sold risky assets and raised more capital, money that is available to absorb losses and is crucial to a bank’s survival in a crisis. “The number of banks that would need to raise additional capital will be limited,” analysts at Barclays said in a note to clients on Friday. “This is due to the substantial pre-emptive measures that the banks have already undertaken.” Betting on which banks would do better or worse than expected was rampant on Friday. Trading was suspended on Friday in shares of the Italian bank Monte dei Paschi di Siena after they jumped more than 10 percent on the strength of speculation that it would fare better than expected under European Central Bank scrutiny. The larger question is whether the review, which included an audit of bank holdings followed by so-called stress tests of their ability to withstand a crisis, will remove doubts about the underlying health of eurozone lenders and make it easier for them to raise money that they can lend to customers.
Jörg Krämer, chief economist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt, was pessimistic about the effect that the review would have on the eurozone economy. The reason for declining credit in the eurozone is not that banks cannot lend, he said on Friday, but that businesses do not want to borrow. “The stress tests will help certain countries like Italy and Spain,” Mr. Krämer said in a meeting with a small group of journalists. “But it won’t be a breakthrough for the whole eurozone.” There could be a sell-off in financial markets on Monday if the central bank uncovers a bigger capital gap than expected. But there is also a risk of a negative market reaction if the review appears to be too lax. Previous stress tests by other regulators gave stamps of approval to banks that later failed, undermining trust in the whole banking system. The European Central Bank has a strong incentive to be tough. It will become the overall supervisor of eurozone banks on Nov. 4, and needs to show it has the skills and backbone to do the job. “If convincing enough, the assessment can support sentiment, the eurozone economy and the banks,” Suvi Kosonen, an analyst at ING Bank, said in a note on Friday.
The central bank conducted the stress tests with the European Banking Authority, which will simultaneously release results on Sunday that include lenders in European Union countries that are not in the eurozone, like Britain and Sweden. Banks found short of capital will have two weeks to submit a plan to the central bank on how they will shore up their finances. Even banks that pass could find themselves under pressure to raise more capital, if they pass only narrowly. The audit will expose that banks may have been overvaluing their assets or failing to set aside enough money to cover bad loans.(source NYT)

Thursday, September 18, 2014

A fortnight ago, about 130 business leaders, who between them employ 50,000 people in Scotland, wrote an open letter in the Scotsman newspaper saying No Thanks to separation. The group, led by the chief executive of engineering giant Weir, Keith Cochrane, said the “business case” for Scottish independence had not been made.

Kingfisher boss Cheshire does not believe Scotland will be able to keep the pound, which would mean repricing 35,00 products, with the cost being passed on to customers. He called on other business leaders to come out and make similar points, saying “It’s now or never.”
Jean-Bernard Levy, the head of France’s Thales – Britain’s second-largest defence contractor – said a yes vote would force the company to reconsider its facilities on both sides of the border.
BP boss Bob Dudley, said he does not want to see Scotland “drifting away” from the UK, because independence would almost certainly mean higher costs for his business.
HSBC chairman Douglas Flint has warned that uncertainty over Scotland’s currency could prompt capital flight from the country and leave it in a “parlous” financial state.
Weir, one of Scotland’s biggest companies, said independence will “guarantee” higher costs for business but produce few and uncertain benefits, after commissioning a report on the economics.
Standard Life, one of the main pillars of Scotland’s finance industry, has set up English subsidiaries as a part of “contingency” planning that could see it quit Scotland.
Royal Bank of Scotland, Scotland’s biggest bank, has tried not to raise the temperature despite harbouring concerns over the risks to its credit rating and business.
Lloyds Banking Group has warned of a “material impact” on its costs and borrowing, implying a knock-on impact for businesses and customers for the owner of Lloyds, Halifax and Bank of Scotland.
Alliance Trust, a pensions and savings firm based in Dundee, has been registering companies in England.
Former Sainsbury’s boss Justin King, was accused of scaremongering by the Scottish National party when he warned that independence could mean higher food prices north of the border. Asda and Morrisons have also warned consumers would face higher prices, reflecting the higher transport costs for some remote areas.

 

Friday, April 25, 2014

 
 
 
Western stock markets seem to be assuming that this little spat with Russia will blow over, and that it will soon be business as usual.
It won't. There's a terrible inevitability to events.
The annexation of Crimea was a no-brainer, since Russia needed to protect its naval bases there. The installation of puppet Russian administrations in the Southern and Eastern Ukraine is also inevitable. The problem here is that the process will not be peaceful, and the appearance of Russian tanks in Ukraine to "protect" Russian-speaking people is a certainty.
This will trigger off draconian economic sanctions by the USA and the EU, and Russia will inevitably respond the only way it can, by turning off the gas pipeline. It is impossible to predict events beyond that, but what we can be sure of is that it will not be pretty and it will not be good for world stock markets....Anyone who has worked in resources realizes that to-date, there has been enormous levels of Western investment into Russia, especially into the energy sector; the demand from which will not dissipate over time. If push came to shove, massive debts to Western (especially German) banks would be dishonored entirely, coupled with the nationalization of EU energy assets. There is no doubt Russia will have a tough time of it - but understand that the Russian psyche can handle it. The confiscation of wealth from the West (Germany) as a net creditor, and UK based resource companies would be a very, very large financial blow, which could take decades to recover from. Not including the resultant damage to European manufacturing from massively higher energy costs.
Nothing in life is simple. Cliché characterizations are unless, Putin is doing what he thinks is best... don't forget, the guy is a student of history. Perspective is everything. History does nothing but demonstrate time and time again, its the small insults, the loss of pride in a relatively benign situation, that quickly spins out of control; underlying the unpredictability of human emotion maybe.
I assume the EU never did any forward inductive analysis before they backed a group that overthrew a democratically elected government !!! Because this was always the most obvious outcome under any Game Theory analysis. It is abundantly clear (to me at least) that since Crimea has left, any future Ukrainian elections will no longer allow ethic Russians (numerically) the chance of political power. It is a mathematical inevitability that they will increasingly become a sidelined as massive minority.
Furthermore, given the Ukrainian leadership has no intention of allowing political and economic devolution (which is also opposed by the EU) – realistically, the only political and logical outcome for this minority is self-determination via force of arms. Of course Russia will inevitable have to enter the fray (remember the Falklands anyone???).
AEP's economic threats are mere futile war drum beats from yesterdays story. This book has already been written. The best that strategists can hope to glean from this transition, is to make it as comfortable and as less disruptive as possible. But given nationalism is not a fertile field for logical outcomes - the risk remains that this situation could get a lot larger and uglier as well. The Ukrainian government for one, appears desperate to want to ramp this up significantly...
Whilst Washington is throwing paper darts in the form of notional Russian debt obligations to insolvent Western banks, the Russians just dig up more oil, gas, gold (whatever, you name it..) and trade with China, India, Brazil etc.
All the US government has is paper money and missile systems that don't work, a rigged stock market, a rigged US treasury market and shale gas/oil that takes more dollars to extract (ex. tax break) than it costs in the market.
The only reason there aren't riots outside Wal-Mart is the debt forbearance shown by China for the plastic junk the infantilized US population seem to need to live the American dream (or is that nightmare..?).
The US empire is running on empty and we're seeing the results now in this last desperate attempt to show they're still a 'contender'. If it wasn't so scary it would be pathetic - what a sad end for that marvelous tool for what could have been human emancipation, the American constitution.
Instead of leading the world (which I think was a possibility before the NeoCon tragedy), they are vaporizing men, women and children with drones in countries most American couldn't even find on a map, under some phony pretext, to boost the military-industrial complex. It's like watching a person destroying themselves with drugs and their family members around them....I'm genuinely saddened by it.

Friday, November 15, 2013

"David Cameron and other European
Union leaders need to show the same political courage and vision of Winston Churchill's call for "a kind of United States of Europe", José Manuel Barroso has said."
It takes possibly more courage to say "NO" to such nonsense.
Continuing down the now clearly wrong path. with a EU that has changed almost completely from the "Common Market" it started out as, will require courage, a lot of it, and the ordinary working people have that in abundance- question is which of our "leaders" has that and is willing to pay the price it requires- "You cannot please all of the people all of the time!" The wise leader right now will see that its much better. long-term, to please his own people, and stop listening to the EU loonies who say thay can please all the people, all the time- they can't, they haven't and they won't ! Get us out of this obvious compromised loyalty mess- get out of the EU, and do it NOW!...This man and Van Rumpooy are at the top of the EU tree. Unelected by any of the people of the EU they have insurmountable power and can do as they wish. Thus we the people have been denied democracy. They are not bound by MEP's voting in the EU parliament and can and do ignore their wishes. EU rules trump national laws and regulation where the EU has competency, The EU has competency where it has been given to them by the governments(politicians) of the sovereign members. Thus we have a politburo largely ruling over us. Not the trading arrangement that was voted on in the 1970's is it. They use every crisis as a means of even more control over our lives. The EU is like a rather fat and unpleasant spider, and we are caught in its web!...I have been warning about the ever increasing powers of the EU for some time now, could this be the straw that finally breaks the camels back? What sovereign Govt. will tolerate such interference in it's financial affairs? If this measure is allowed to happen it signals the end of Democracy in Europe, is that a price worth paying? As I see it we now have no choice but to vote UKIP to remove ourselves from this wholly dictatorial club before we lose our sovereignty forever, Rule Britannia!!

Wednesday, November 6, 2013

The following information focuses on earthquakes because seismic activity poses a significant risk for Romania. However, Romania is at risk for other natural and manmade hazards. While much of the information below specifically addresses earthquakes, it is applicable to multiple hazards, and we encourage you to think broadly about the possible risks you and your family may face and to be prepared for any kind of emergency that may arise.
Romania is situated in a seismically active region and has a history of devastating and deadly earthquakes. The Bucharest area has experienced a number of tremors of varying intensities, and the probability that a severe and damaging earthquake will occur is high. The consequences of such a disaster will vary greatly depending upon the circumstances surrounding the quake, and no one can predict with any certainty what conditions will exist immediately following an intensive shock.
It is prudent that everyone be prepared to care for themselves in the immediate aftermath of a major earthquake. Every family and company should develop its own emergency plan, stock its own emergency survival kit, and ensure that its personnel and their family members familiarize themselves with emergency procedures and take precautions to protect their personal safety.

The Role of the Embassy

The Romanian Government is responsible for assisting foreigners in the event of a disaster, but authorities may be stretched beyond their capacity to respond in the immediate aftermath of a major earthquake. Telephone services will be severely overloaded, if they are functioning at all, and the Romanian Government will likely restrict phone use to priority users. Nonetheless, the Embassy will quickly want to ascertain the welfare and whereabouts of American citizens.
To aid in this process, American citizens should cooperate with Romanian authorities at evacuation sites and clearly identify themselves as Americans. Those connected with larger organizations such as companies, schools, or church groups should try to let these organizations know of their welfare and whereabouts if this is practical. If possible, American citizens should try to contact their American Citizen Services wardens and/or the Embassy.

The Embassy will be in touch with the Romanian Government and with larger umbrella organizations to attempt to identify as many American citizens as possible and determine their welfare. In the likely event that it is impossible to communicate by telephone or use motor vehicles, Embassy consular assistance teams may be deployed to major evacuation sites, international schools, hotels etc. to collect information from and about American citizens.

The Embassy will help provide information about the situation and communicate with Romanian government officials, if necessary, in order to obtain proper food, shelter and medical attention. However, a significant earthquake will likely overwhelm the Romanian government’s resources and individuals should be prepared to provide for their own emergency needs.
We will pass as much information as possible about the welfare of individual U.S. citizens back to the Department of State in Washington, D.C. so that this information may be shared with families, friends and employers.

The Role of the Romanian Government

The Romanian Civil Protection Command is part of the Romanian Defense System and is responsible for protecting the population, assets, national heritage and geographical environment in case of a natural disaster. The command’s activities include disaster intervention, search & rescue, warning and notification, sheltering, evacuation, etc. A central committee for evacuations is set up under authority of the Government if evacuation is required. In the event of a disaster, the location of the centers is determined depending on the area affected and the type of disaster that occurred. The Civil Protection Command coordinates with the local authorities in order to notify the population regarding evacuation or taking shelter.

Evacuations

Evacuations will likely occur after an earthquake. City authorities will issue evacuation advice. Americans, as well as others affected by the disaster, may seek assistance from the Romanian authorities, but you should be prepared to take care of your own emergency needs for the first several days of any disaster.

Earthquake Preparedness/Survival Information

FEMA produces a comprehensive Disaster Preparedness Guide called Are You Ready?, which can be easily downloaded by section or in its entirety. This indepth guide provides a step-by-step approach to citizen preparedness by walking the reader through how to learn more about local emergency plans, how to identify hazards that affect their local area, and how to develop and maintain an emergency communications plan and disaster supplies kit. Other topics covered include evacuation, emergency public shelters, animals in disaster, and information specific to people with disabilities. However, it is designed primarily for residents of the United States, and not all of the information will be relevant to disaster preparedness in Romania. Regardless, it can be a useful resource and a good starting place when preparing for a disaster.

Additional resources are also available online. Please visit the following websites for additional information about preparing for a disaster:

Emergency Supply Kit

Essential Supplies (Store enough for three-five days)
 
  • Water (four liters or one gallon per person per day. Change water every three to five months)
  • Food (canned or pre-cooked, requiring no heat or water. Consider special dietary needs for infants, the elderly, pets, etc.). Can opener.
  • Flashlight with spare batteries and bulbs
  • Radio (battery operated with spare batteries)
  • Large plastic trash bags (for trash, waste, water protection, ground cloth, temporary blanket)
  • Hand soap and/or disinfecting hand cleaner gel that does not require water
  • Feminine hygiene supplies, infant supplies, toilet paper
  • Essential medications as required; glasses if you normally wear contacts
  • Paper plates, cups, plastic utensils, cooking foil and plastic wrap and paper towels
  • First Aid kit with instructions
  • Lei, euros, and/or dollars in small bills (ATMs may not work after a disaster), with coins and phone cards for public phones. Credit cards.
  • Sturdy, closed-toed shoes and work gloves
Place emergency supplies in a sturdy tub where you can quickly and easily access your kit.

Essential Home Preparations Before a Disaster
 
  • Secure water heaters, refrigerators and tall and heavy furniture to the walls to prevent falling.
  • Move heavy items to lower shelves, and install latches or other locking devices on cabinets.
  • Install flexible connections on gas appliances.
  • Remove or isolate flammable materials.
  • Move beds and children's play areas away from heavy objects which may fall in an earthquake.
  • Register at Embassy or Consulate serving your area. You can do so online at https://travelregistration.state.gov/ibrs/ui/ or contact the U.S. Embassy to register.
Essential Planning Before a Disaster
 
  • Draw a floor plan of your home showing the location of exit windows and doors, utility cut off points, emergency supplies, food, tools, etc. Share it with housekeeper, babysitters, neighbors, and guests.
  • Establish family meeting points with alternate sites inside and outside of your home for all members to gather in the event of an evacuation.
  • Establish reunion sites with alternate sites for when the family is not at home, e.g., local shelter, neighbor's house, park, school.
  • Designate a person outside of your immediate area for separated family members to call to report their location and condition if separated.
  • Learn or establish disaster policy/planning at your children's school.
  • Know your neighbors and make them aware of the number of people and pets living in your home.
  • Learn where the nearest designated shelter for your neighborhood is.
  • Photocopy passports and other important documents. Store copies away from home (for example, at work). Scan important information and keep a thumb drive with critical documents in a safe, easy-to-access place or save it in email that you can access from anywhere.
  • Learn how to contact the police, fire and rescue services in Romanian. Be able to provide your address in Romanian.
Essential Steps Immediately After a Disaster
 
  • Check your immediate surroundings for fire, gas leaks, broken glass, and other hazards.
  • Check your home for significant damage. Do not remain in your home if you believe there has been structural damage.
  • Open doors and/or windows to avoid being locked in if there are after-shocks.
  • Contact one friend or relative in the U.S., and ask them to inform other parties of your situation.
  • Monitor local TV and radio for evacuation information. Contact your American Citizen Warden or the Embassy, if possible.

Thursday, October 24, 2013

Negociators Thursday plunged into difficult budget talks to avoid a repeat crisis within months, and quickly agreed to lower their sights from the sort of grand bargain that has eluded the two parties for three years.
After approval late Wednesday of the agreement ending the standoff, the deal-making mantle shifted overnight from the leaders of the Senate to the Budget Committee leaders, Senator Patty Murray, Democrat of Washington, and Representative Paul D. Ryan, Republican of Wisconsin, two less senior lawmakers who nonetheless could make very effective salespeople since they command loyal followings in their parties. The political pressure lifted as well, for now. But the need for a bipartisan breakthrough, even a modest one, was amplified by the economic costs wrought by the 16-day shutdown and near-default on government obligations.       
“The key now is a budget that cuts out the things that we don’t need, closes corporate tax loopholes that don’t help create jobs, and frees up resources for the things that do help us grow — like education and infrastructure and research,” President Obama said Thursday from the White House, setting ambitious goals for Congress even as his own role in the bargaining was unclear.
The question of what a new House-Senate budget conference can deliver by its Dec. 13 deadline — in time for Congress to act by Jan. 15 on funding to keep the government open — remained the subject of deep skepticism, well earned by past failures at reaching so-called grand bargains for deficit reduction and spending investments in the past three years.
With the scope of the talks narrowed for now, on the table are ideas left over from past, failed bargaining: possible reductions in other programs — like farm subsidies, federal pensions, the Postal Service and unemployment insurance — and relatively minimal tax loophole closings, possibly as little as $55 billion.

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Several hundreds of people were protesting in the village of Silistea-Pungesti in Eastern Romania on Wednesday against plans by US company Chevron to start operating the first shale gas exploration drill in the county of Vaslui, news agency Agerpres reports.
Protesters - some of whom have come from the Barlad, Iasi and other cities in the region of Moldova, Eastern Romania, some of whom are locals from Pungesti - installed tents on the field where Chevron machines are to be deployed. They remained there over night to protest today and said they would not leave the perimeter and would not allow representatives of the US company to come to the area.
On Wednesday afternoon, some 500 people were taking part in the protest. Some locals forced a line of intervention police deployed in the area and managed to reach the perimeter they were not allowed in. Vaslui county prefect Radu Renga warned that laws must be complied it and that gendarmes have to intervene when public order and traffic on public roads are affected.
The first exploration drill is to be deployed in the close vicinity of the village of Pungesti.
Chevron Romania holds another three certificates for the county of Vaslui to start explorations in order to identify possible shale gas reserves.

Friday, August 30, 2013

In Germany, the finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has completed an outspoken week with a flourish.
Speaking to German daily Handelsblatt, in an interview published this morning, Mr Schaeuble revisited talk of a third bail-out for Greece, following on from his surprise admission about the prospect earlier this week. Today, he added that, while Greece is likely to need another rescue package, that the sums involved will not be as high as the earlier deals, which totaled €240bn. He's also insisted that Greece will not get another debt haircut.

We have held out the prospect of further aid, on condition that the government in Athens meet its agreed commitments and on the expectation the sums involved will be much smaller than before.

I don't want to be accused, after the election, of not having said the truth before the election.

I'm happy that the broad public is aware of what I've been saying for a long time, that we'll have to look next year at further measures for Greece.

Saturday, July 13, 2013

The European Commission released the details of its proposals for a single bank resolution mechanism. Here's the run-down of their plans - stupidity has no limit ...it seems...:
 
1. The ECB, as the supervisor, would signal when a bank in the euro area or established in a Member State participating in the Banking Union was in severe financial difficulties and needed to be resolved.
2. A Single Resolution Board, consisting of representatives from the ECB, the European Commission and the relevant national authorities (those where the bank has its headquarters as well as branches and/or subsidiaries), would prepare the resolution of a bank. It would have broad powers to analyze and define the approach for resolving a bank: which tools to use, and how the European Resolution Fund should be involved. National resolution authorities would be closely involved in this work.
3. On the basis of the Single Resolution Board's recommendation, or on its own initiative, the Commission would decide whether and when to place a bank into resolution and would set out a framework for the use of resolution tools and the fund. For legal reasons, the final say could not be with the Board.
4. Under the supervision of the Single Resolution Board, national resolution authorities would be in charge of the execution of the resolution plan.
5. The Single Resolution Board would oversee the resolution. It would monitor the execution at national level by the national resolution authorities and, should a national resolution authority not comply with its decision, it could directly address executive orders to the troubled banks.
6. A Single Bank Resolution Fund would be set up under the control of the Single Resolution Board to ensure the availability of medium-term funding support while the bank was restructured. It would be funded by contributions from the banking sector, replacing the national resolution funds of the euro area Member States and of Member States participating in the Banking Union, as set up by the draft Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive.

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

UK to claw back power from the EU.

EUOBSERVER(source)BRUSSELS - The UK wants to retain 35 EU-wide police and justice laws out of some 130 in its wider efforts to claw back power from the EU.
“We believe the UK should opt out of the measures in question for reasons of principle, policy, and pragmatism,” UK home secretary Theresa May told ministers in London on Tuesday (9 July).
Tory-right wingers want to repatriate all 133 laws, but May said the UK should retain its co-operation with the EU police agency, Europol, and the EU's joint judicial authority, Eurojust.
“We should opt in post-adoption provided that Europol is not given the power to direct national law enforcement agencies to initiate investigations or share data that conflicts with our national security,” she noted.
The European Arrest Warrant will also figure into UK’s provisional opt-in list but with added conditions to better protect British nationals of extradition to other member states in case of minor offences.  May wants to amend the Extradition Act so that people in the UK can only be extradited under the European Arrest Warrant when the requesting state has already made a decision to charge and a decision to try. The UK parliament is set to vote and adopt the measures next week but opposition ministers say they need more time to examine the 159-page document that details the government’s full plans. Others accused the home secretary of double standards over the government’s stated position on EU-related justice issues.
May had previously suggested that the European Arrest Warrant was not in the UK’s interest. Shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper said “the home secretary has been forced to admit the truth, Britain does need the European Arrest Warrant, it does need joint-investigation teams, Europol, the exchange of criminal records, and help to tackle online child abuse.” Other proposed desired opt-in laws include the principle of mutual recognition to financial penalties, confiscation orders, and simplifying the exchange of information and intelligence between law enforcement authorities with member states.
The UK has to accept all 133 measures, made before the Lisbon Treaty was adopted in 2009, or reject them all. If it rejects them all, it can then opt back into individual laws it wants to keep.
The decision must be made by June 2014 or all the EU laws, as of December of the same year, will be subject to oversight by EU judges as well as the European Commission’s enforcement powers.
“Following our discussions in Europe, another vote will be held on the final list of measures that the UK will formally apply to rejoin,” said May. Some senior government officials see the move as part of David Cameron’s push for an in/out referendum on its EU membership.  MPs last week unanimously backed a bill that guarantees the popular vote by the end of the 2017. The opposition Labour party, however, boycotted the vote on the bill.
The commission, for its part, says it respects the UK government's choice to opt out, and welcomes the UK intention to also opt back into certain measures. “The commission will clearly need to take the necessary time to assess the indicative list of proposals for opting back in that the UK has outlined,” said a commission spokesperson in a statement. The commission will formulate an official position after it receives formal notice following the December 2014 deadline.  Official negotiations between the two have yet to start.

Tuesday, July 9, 2013

ECB - Troubled bank balance sheets ...

Troubled bank balance sheets had the potential to “choke the engine of recovery” in the 17-nation bloc, and “exert a more persistent drag on economic growth,” said Mr Coeuré, who sits on the executive board of the European Central Bank (ECB). Mr Coeuré said ailing banks had to be repaired or shut down. Failure to do so could result in a decade of stagnant growth in the eurozone, similar to Japan in the 1990s. He said the eurozone crisis risked creating a Japanese-style wave of “zombie banks” in which lenders, fearful of falling foul of capital rules, chose to “evergreen” - or roll over - bad loans instead of recognizing losses on their books. This had led to the “perverse” practice of banks extending credit to insolvent borrowers, rather than lend to creditworthy firms, said Mr Coeuré. Banks then “gambl[ed] on the hope that [firms] would recover or that the government would bail them out”. Mr Coeuré called on leaders to complete the steps needed to implement the eurozone’s banking union. He also said measures were needed to tackle youth unemployment...
Meanwhile, Olli Rehn, an incompetent idiot, the European commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, said the next tranche of Greece’s bail-out could be paid in installments amid growing frustration with Athens’ slow pace of reform.
“It is possible, but not certain,” Mr Rehn said on Friday. “It all depends on whether Greece can meet all requirements that they are committed to.”  A separate report by the European Commission and the ECB showed that Spain’s troubled lenders did not need further taxpayer support. The eurozone’s fourth largest economy has so far received €41.3bn to recapitalize its banks....
German politicians have been vocal in their opposition to the EU Commission's plans for a single bank resolution authority, concerned that it could override a national decision on how to deal with a struggling bank. Yesterday finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble warned that the plans could require treaty change. I would strongly ask the commission in its proposal for a [single resolution mechanism] to be very careful, and to stick to the limited interpretation of the given treaty.  We have to stick to the given legal basis, as otherwise we risk major turbulence.  More on the plans for the so-called "single resolution mechanism" to be proposed by the EU Commission today.  If plans go ahead at the planned pace, a new agency within the European Central Bank will be in charge of the wind-down or rescue of failed banks by 2015. The eventual aim is for the ECB to draw from a common multibillion euro fund, supplied by eurozone banks. However, since it will take years to accumulate the €60bn needed for a bank resolution fund, it will be limited to overseeing national-level bank bail-outs to begin with.


 

Sunday, June 30, 2013

....Move on, nothing to see here....or is it ?

At least the French have a convincing politician to whom they can turn.  She also doesn't pull her punches on the unmitigated and undeniable social and cultural disaster that is mass immigration.  All we have in our political class are varying degrees of effete, self serving liars, traitors and multi-cult fetishists.
Mrs Le Pen said her first order of business on setting foot in the Elysee Palace will be to announce a referendum on EU membership, "rendez vous" one year later. "I will negotiate over the points on which there can be no compromise. If the result is inadequate, I will call for withdrawal," she said. It is no longer an implausible prospect. "We cannot be seduced," she said, brimming with confidence after her party secured 46pc of the vote in a by-election earthquake a week ago. Her candidate trounced the ruling Socialists in their own bastion of Villeneuve-sur-Lot.  "The euro ceases to exist the moment that France leaves, and that is our incredible strength. What are they going to do, send in tanks?" she told the Daily Telegraph at the Front National's headquarters, an unmarked building tucked away in the Paris suburb of Nanterre. Her office is small and workaday, almost austere. "Europe is just a great bluff. One side there is the immense power of sovereign peoples, and on the other side are a few technocrats," she said. For the first time, the Front National is running level with the two governing parties of post-War France, Socialists and Gaullistes. All are near 21pc in national polls, though the Front alone has the wind in its sails. Yet it is the detail in the Villeneuve vote that has shocked the political class. The Front scored highest in the most Socialist cantons, a sign that it may be breaking out of its Right-wing enclaves to become the mass movement of the white working class....
Asked if she intends to pull France of the euro immediately, she said: "Yes, because the euro blocks all economic decisions. France is not a country that cannot accept tutelage from Brussels," she said. Officials will be told to draw up plans for the restoration of the franc. Eurozone leaders will face a stark choice: either work with France for a "sortie concertee" or coordinated EMU break-up: or await their fate. Mrs Le Pen fears that other EMU states will resist and let "financial Armaggedon" run its course, but it is a risk that has be taken. Her plan is based on a study by economists from l'École des Hautes Études in Paris led by Professor Jacques Sapir. It concludes that France, Italy, and Spain would all benefit greatly from EMU-exit, restoring lost labour competitiveness at a stroke without years of depression. They say the eurozone's North-South imbalances have already gone beyond the point of no return. Attempts to reverse this by deflation and wage cuts must entail mass unemployment and loss of the industrial core. The current strategy of internal devaluation is self-defeating in any case, since recession causes debt ratios to climb faster. 
No mention of this Euro bombshell in: Der Spiegel, El Pais, BBC
and very little in Le Monde....Move on, nothing to see here.
There is hope, real hope, that the Euro monster will implode.
And before you call me racist, I love Europe, the culture and the people. I am a European....Please don't get me wrong. I deplore the EU and all it claims to stand for (itself)!!

Saturday, June 29, 2013

"Deutschland uber alles". ...

Wolfgang Schaeuble, Germany’s finance minister, has criticized the Irish bankers caught on tape joking about the Irish banking system bailout, calling them “aloof super humans” who were worthy of contempt. The comments followed the released of transcripts of telephone conversation from 2008 between bankers at Anglo Irish Bank that have caused outrage worldwide. John Bowe, Anglo’s head of capital markets, and Peter Fitzgerald, director of retail banking, were heard laughing and mocking as authorities were preparing a rescue deal for the country’s teetering banking system. This has led to accusation that the lender suckered the Irish government into a €7bn (£6bn) bail-out knowing that much more was needed. The bankers are also heard singing a pre-war verse of the German national anthem, with the words "Deutschland uber alles".
Mr. Schaeuble's remarks are quoted in German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine and echoed comments by Chancellor Angela Merkel on Friday. “These bankers seem to like themselves in the role of aloof super humans who only have contempt for their fellow humans,” Mr Schaeuble said. “Instead it is they who should get our contempt and to whose game we should put a stop.”
The Irish government was eventually forced to pump €30bn (£25.7bn) into Anglo and roughly the same amount into Ireland’s two other cash-strapped banks, Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish Bank – rescues that brought the entire Irish economy to its knees.

Saturday, June 8, 2013

Rubbish, it's about pretending that the Euro is still viable as a currency, and that Greece can continue to stay within in.
"Austerity" wasn't a political choice for the Greeks - just a simple statement of reality. When your economy produces almost nothing, when your country has been living on cheap borrowed money for a decade, and when the source of borrowing dries up - you can't just decide to carry on spending money that isn't there: A point that the writer of this article seems incapable of grasping....
Since Greece can not stimulate the economy with more government spending, they must encourage businesses through other means. Here's some possible ideas...
1. Go through their regulatory environment, removing any regulation whose purpose is not obvious and sound. or which favors special interests over the public interest. I have heard, for example, that transporting goods in Greece is a nightmare because of all of the restrictions. That's grit in the wheels of commerce.
2. Go through their labor code as well, asking if they've struck the right balance between worker's and employer's rights. Employers are reluctant to hire someone who's near impossible to fire.
3. Revamp their tax code, perhaps making it more favorable for business, but then make sure it's rigorously enforced.

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Spanish industrial production dives again - The economic crisis in Spain continues. Data released this morning showed that industrial production in the country tumbled by 6.5% in February, compared with a year ago.
That's the 18th monthly contraction in a row.
The slump was driven by a double-digit decline in production of durable goods for consumers, who are suffering badly as Madrid implements its austerity programme.
But production was also down across the board, from other consumer goods to large-scale industrial equipment:
Spanish industrial production, February 2013
Many Spanish factories have closed since the financial crisis struck, creating a vicious circle of rising unemployment and falling demand.
One example, thousands of people were employed at a door factory in the town in Villacanas, south of Madrid. In the good days they churned out products for Spain's property boom - but the plant is now closed, along with most of of the Villacanas industrial park....
The picture is slightly better in France this morning, where industrial production only fell by 2.8% year-on-year in February, and actually picked up by 0.7% compared with January.
I'll be tracking the reaction to today's data, and watching developments across the eurozone -- particularly Slovenia (whose PM yesterday rejected speculation that a bailout would be needed), and Cyprus (where time is running out to agree its bailout).

Sunday, November 4, 2012

The Single Market is like a customs union. Tax and duty paid in one member country is deemed as tax and duty paid in another member country and so goods are free to move across borders between members. Many readers eher will not remember the bad old days when trucks crossing borders had to queue and wait for a customs official to measure the amount of diesel in the fuel tank and then the driver had to pay tax on the import of that fuel into that particular country. Only passenger vehicles were exempt.
Hannah is simply playing word games. He admits the EU is internally a free trade area but, the fact that it is not free and open to the world is not unusual. Most of the world is not free and open to the EU or to many other parts of the world.
Hannah provides examples of free trade areas, Nafta (Canada, the United States and Mexico) and ASEAN (ten South East Asian states). The EU is setting up similar Free Trade Agreements, EU-Japan Free Trade Agreement, EU- Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, EU-US Transatlantic Economic Council, EU-India Free Trade Agreement, EU-Mercosur Free Trade Agreement.
Hannah says nothing but he does demonstrate his naivety; "The optimum deal for the United Kingdom is surely to be in a European free trade area but not in a customs union." That's like saying that the optimum deal for the United Kingdom is one where the UK is the sole winner.
We'd all like unlimted freedoms but with no attached responsibilities but you will never ever eliminate 'if you sell to him, I won't sell to you' and very quickly, 'and I'll ask my mate not to supply you at all'. Deals are struck, bargains are made. No one allows a single trader to take all the profit.

Friday, October 26, 2012

MADRID—Spain's central bank said Tuesday the Spanish economy contracted at a faster pace in the third quarter and the country may miss its budget-deficit target because of tax-revenue shortfalls.
The euro zone's fourth-largest economy contracted by 1.7% from the same period last year, compared with a 1.3% contraction in the second quarter, the central bank said.
In the first estimate of Spain's economic performance during the July-to-September quarter, the Bank of Spain said that on a quarterly basis gross domestic product likely contracted 0.4%, the same as in the second quarter. The central bank's estimates are often very close to or in line with final government estimates issued later. The government's first third-quarter GDP estimate is due Oct. 30.
The central bank also said that "it can't be ruled out" that Spain's government would miss its budget deficit target for this year, currently at 6.3% of GDP after a series of revisions, largely because of tax-revenue shortfalls. Last year, Spain's deficit stood at 9.4% of GDP, more than three percentage points above the target.
"The efforts to lower spending at the public sector have had a net contracting effect (on the economy) in the central months of the year," the Bank of Spain said. "We see drops in consumption and investment by all levels of government above those seen in previous quarters."

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Brussels- The EU agreement on banking union is "no triumph". The evidence sits hidden in plain sight in the difference between the summit text before and after yesterday's negotiations...
The summit deal on banking supervision was no triumph. It was another EU exercise in decision dodging and fudge as German procrastination won the day.
Angela Merkel wanted to postpone a new European Central Bank banking supervisor because that in turn delays decision on using the euro’s bail-out fund to recapitalise banks until after German elections.
To see the tricksy, evasive, responsibility-doging fudge – a tortuous linguistic exercise that went into the early hours of today – it is necessary to contrast before and after.
Here is the original draft that the leaders began discussing yesterday: “We need to move towards an integrated financial framework, open to the extent possible to all Member States wishing to participate. In this context, the European Council invites the legislators to proceed with work on the legislative proposals on the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) as a matter of priority, with the objective of completing it by the end of the year:”
Here is the agreed summit text: "We need to move towards an integrated financial framework… In this context, the European Council invites the legislators to proceed with work on the legislative proposals on the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) as a matter of priority, with the objective of agreeing on the legislative framework by 1 January 2013. Work on the operational implementation will take place in the course of 2013.”
This is no triumph. The EU has gone from a deadline to “complete” from one to “agree” with the schedule slipping from December 2012 to anytime next year. This will mean that Chancellor has deferred the issue of using the ESM to directly recapitalise banks until after elections in September 2013, significantly reversing a June summit decision.