The break-up of the euro would mean a short, sharp economic shock and probably a recession, but would be followed by a quicker return to strong economic growth, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research. As European governments struggle to keep the euro zone together, Greek political leaders last night sealed a pact to form a national unity government after George Papandreou, the prime minister, announced his imminent resignation under pressure from a European ultimatum. David Cameron will today tell MPs that the failure of eurozone leaders to resolve the debt crisis is harming the economy, and will warn that the break-up of the single currency would be even more damaging. However, CEBR economists suggest that the demise of the euro would “not be anything like the disaster that has been argued”. Freed from the constraints of the single currency, strong countries such as Germany would see their currencies gain in price in relation to the pound, boosting British exports. The economists predict that break-up would free many eurozone members from the deficit-cutting austerity policies that threaten to subdue their growth for years. “If it breaks up the immediate pain is much more intense, but then there is a more stable basis and we would expect that within about 30 months growth will actually be faster than if the euro zone survives in its current form,” CEBR said.
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Monday, November 7, 2011
The break-up of the euro would mean a short, sharp economic shock and probably a recession, but would be followed by a quicker return to strong economic growth, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research. As European governments struggle to keep the euro zone together, Greek political leaders last night sealed a pact to form a national unity government after George Papandreou, the prime minister, announced his imminent resignation under pressure from a European ultimatum. David Cameron will today tell MPs that the failure of eurozone leaders to resolve the debt crisis is harming the economy, and will warn that the break-up of the single currency would be even more damaging. However, CEBR economists suggest that the demise of the euro would “not be anything like the disaster that has been argued”. Freed from the constraints of the single currency, strong countries such as Germany would see their currencies gain in price in relation to the pound, boosting British exports. The economists predict that break-up would free many eurozone members from the deficit-cutting austerity policies that threaten to subdue their growth for years. “If it breaks up the immediate pain is much more intense, but then there is a more stable basis and we would expect that within about 30 months growth will actually be faster than if the euro zone survives in its current form,” CEBR said.
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Coaliţia de guvernare condusă de Angela Merkel a decis să reducă o serie de taxe şi impozite începând din 2013, măsură prin care populaţia şi companiile vor economisi şase miliarde de euro.
După luni de dispute şi tensiuni politice, coaliţia aflată la guvernare în Germania a decis să reducă o serie de taxe şi impozite (printre care şi impozitul pe venit), măsură prin care contribuabilii vor economisi, doar în 2013, două miliarde de euro.
În urma negocierilor dure, coaliţia a decis că reducerea taxelor poate fi aprobată doar dacă, în acelaşi timp, se vor majora contribuţiile sociale, iar statul va trebui să-şi asume investiţii mai mari în infrastructură, simplificarea procesului de recrutare de lucrători calificaţi străini şi mai mult sprijin financiar pentru aceia care au copii în grijă.
„Este un pas înainte în ceea ce priveşte mai multă corectitudine în sectorul fiscal, însă, în acelaşi timp, este o măsură care consolidează creşterea economică a Germaniei“, a declarat Angela Merkel, cancelarul Germaniei.
Sounds just about what many of us believe.
By all means display the arguments, but the justification for referenda is even more compelling.
It would be interesting to see a further Telegraph straw pole:
"Do you believe that collapse of the EMU would benefit the UK within 5 years?"
o no one in Sweden ever buys a Ford car with a duratec engine? Ford's UK plants specialise in engines - 25% of all Ford engines are made in the UK - which are then installed in German and Belgium made Fords. And no one in Sweden has bought a Honda CRV, made in Swindon for the EU market, or a Honda Jazz. Some Nissans and Toyotas are also made in the UK for Europe.
Manufacturing is beoming international. You can't simply say - that's a Ford, that's German because (despite the marketing) it might have British manufactured components or indeed Mexican or Brazilian components.
However, I'm surprised no-one in Sweden has a Land Rover, Jaguar, or Rolls Royce of some description
The only British products I have ever seen in Sweden, not in the Eurozone, are Fisherman's Friends in more flavours than you will find in Britain, and potatoes. The latter are probably sent to fill up vehicles that would otherwise go back empty.
The idea that the break-up of the Eurozone will lead to a rush of exports seems to be based more on faith than anything else. But a low £ will mean higher prices in the shops, so how can that be good?
Cast the mind back, before the "One market bullshit" floated by the Government was pushed in our faces. Before those days, I traded throughout Europe. In different currencies. So what? IT just meant an extra bit of work. More research; a bit more monitoring. The Euro zone as a free trade area is a good idea. It has become unnecessarily an area controlled by expensive and numerous "Eurocrats", from a massive Head Office situation in Brussels, overseen by useless expensive dictatorial Politicians. As with any bloated conglomerate, the subsidiaries should be cut free from the Head office. Loosen the ties; encourage flexibility; be adaptable; then all can win. The Euro zone has to under go radical change. The U.K. is broke and badly governed. The U.K. needs to be free from any straitjacket to start building again.
Britain probably would benefit from the break-up of the eurozone. I'm more worried about the consequences of the current defence.
Germany and France - indeed the whole eurozone - show no signs of throwing in the towel and seem to be getting more and more hostile to those outside their club. If the Eurozone survives it will be because of moves towards fiscal union which will make it a bloc within the EU. We will be outside and outvoted at every turn. The majority of EU countries are already in the bloc, the 1st, 2nd, 4th(arguably 3rd) EU economies are members and new entrants - the eastern countries - have to join. The group outside the Euro will continually shrink
Sarkozy's evident hostility to all things English also mean that life outside the EU could be uncomfortable.
Hopefully the euro will die, but I'm not holding my breath
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