Saturday, November 19, 2011

Eurozone bond yields show UK is right on euro - French and German politicians are becoming increasingly indignant over what they see as British lecturing about the eurozone crisis. But this is merely an attempt to distract their own voters from the real problems at home by attacking overseas. Although we stayed out of the single currency, the UK still has a legitimate voice when it comes to suggesting solutions and urging action. It is, as we know to our cost, our problem too. But the fact UK analysis of the problem is not what Angela Merkel or Nicolas Sarkozy agree with, or want to hear, doesn't mean it's wrong or any less legitimate than their own plans to solve the problem, such as they are. Who's right and who's wrong should first be tested at the ballot box. But as we know, eurozone leaders have an aversion to this as it risks removing any vestige of legitimacy for the single currency. The second judge is the market. And bond yields clearly reveal that the UK approach to both policy and its execution are what investors want.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

As we will soon be the last big economy in the EU with an intact AAA rating, I think it would be helpful to the French and Germans if Britain sets up, as a favour, an economic advisory service - explaining to governments in Europe how to run their national economies.

Anonymous said...

No,thanks.Keep the City.Keep the financial Hogwarts.The best thing that happened to Germany is, that we didn't follow the neo-liberal bacchanalia based on credit card shopping,real estate bubbles & money 'magic'.The last is the reason why the whole Anglo-Saxon world needs to go back to school-Economics is about math,not wizardry,magic & 'creating' money.This system is mathematically impossible.The idea, that the equation can be balanced by randomly adding numbers to get the needed result in the end,will not mask the fact that the number you get out is wrong and the problem is not solved

Anonymous said...

Sadly the fundamentals for the UK economy are not promising. I expect the AAA rating to be lost sometime next year, unless genuine cuts are made or taxes increased.

We have not escaped.., we merely have a stay of execution.

cotzo said...

That stay of execution can be greatly alleviated. I believe this economy can be turned around by right minded, coherent, strategic thinking. Funds are going to come back to the UK and sterling can benefit in a powerful way, we should be hoovering up these funds to recapitalise British Banks and British industry, not to 9% but to set a target of 11% for banks. Anti inflation measures should be put in place. The core elements are reduction in inflation, holding interest rates steady, bank recapitalisations and forced mergers to guarantee liquidity to industry and businesses in the face of the serious credit crunch that is on the way. The government needs to look at a range of policy initiatives and not just the big bazooka of quantitative easing and interest rates. If needs be it must take bold initiatives each with a specific targeted objective. This is war cabinet time gents.

Government cannot afford to be waiting around for people like me to tell them what to do they need to "exploit" that's right "exploit" the weaknesses of the Euro area system because this is going to be a fight to the death. The bank of England needs all possible risk permutations and exposures modeled on a real time basis. Derivative risks, counter party risks, sovereign risks, commercial banking exposures and finally trade area risks. Then, it needs to coordinate action, not like a country would be expected to act but rather it should coordinate action as if it was a mega large fund such as Pimco. The UK needs to deleverage and fast in a totally selfishly preemptive way as expeditiously as possible, assuming the worst case scenario of the Euro being torn apart by the markets. As it happens the worst case scenario is also the most likely scenario.

This, I can assure you , is what the Germans are burning the midnight oil for with every economist, theorist and banker of note being called to Frankfurt to give their best shot at what the German Bundesbank and Bundestag can do within the straight jacket of their own overall objectives which is to stop the German people being stiffed with the failure of the Euro. All this has to happen within the confines of their Constitutional court Karlsruhe and against the depth of feeling on the ground. One final thing the dollar is an accident waiting to happen and because of the election next year they are not going to pursue any kind of a logical strategy the dollar has been helped by the contagion in the EU and the US and they have contributed to both currency crises. Yes, their is a dollar currency crisis, a reserve currency crisis, not on most peoples radar screens which are all clogged up with static from Europe but it is there nonetheless.

Anonymous said...

What utter balls sir. When including amongst the euro problems no doubt Spain enters the equation. Do some research. Spain owes the UK some 75 billion euros, whilst, the UK (wait for it), owes Spain a whopping 375 billion Euros. Is that good houskeeping or what? I'm so sick of people like yourself blowing the GB trumpet whilst sitting just as deeply in the cowpat as everyone else. The US and the UK were instrumental in the evolution of the present crisis by promoting and participating in hedge fund scams which in the long term were nothing more than legal pyramid scams yet now you wish to claim righteousness and criticise your innocent victims brought down by corporate greed.Shame on you.

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