Wednesday, December 7, 2011

The eurozone's EFSF bailout fund may have its AAA rating cut if S&P downgrades the sovereign debt of the nations backing it

Dwight D. Eisenhower warned "we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex" . Well the financial crisis was the military-industrial complex making their move for total power - Create an EU ; Create an EU common currency. When the time is right launch an economic attack on the EU - chosen method, use international credit rating agencies and international financiers to defraud European banks and then get puppet politicians to transfer banking debt to taxpayers and call it sovereign debt. Then, use this so called sovereign debt as an excuse for "technocrats" (the military industrial complex) put their people in place. Yes the military industrial complex is taking over and overthrowing democracy. It follows that any country that does not have a stock market should be attacked and their leaders replaced. WELL finally : Tell us EU-enthusiasts : at what point do the ends cease to justify the means?

"A confidential paper from council president Herman Van Rompuy proposes empowering the commission to impose austerity" - Herman Van Rompuy is circulating the euro zone plan ahead of a crucial EU summit on Thursday and Friday - What seems ridiculous about this whole approach is that even if these proposals had already been in existence, they would NOT have prevented this crisis. Spain had a surplus right up to the crisis, Ireland was well within the GDP/Deficit and debt limits imposed by the growth and stability pact (unlike France and Germany ironically enough). The Germans seem unwilling to recognize or accept that this crisis is a banking crisis and only ever became a sovereign crisis when States had to shore up their failed banking systems. That being the case, are the Germans being wilfully blind to the fact their banks lent just as recklessly as anyone's to banks in the Southern States (and in Ireland, as an example, the debt mountain is largely the result of the State bailing out one bank in particular which was funded by German banks, who will be paid 100 cents on the euro for their stupid investing, all on the backs of the Irish tax payer!). I actually think integration with rules which everyone (including the new dictators) must abide by could be good for a sustainable euro economy but all this nonsense about countries losing voting rights and the likes is pretty dumb if you ask me. They do know this would have to go to a referendum in Ireland and if they continue to treat the Irish people with disdain whilst the Irish people pick up the tab for a failed banking system which the self righteous Germans are key villains in, do they really believe it would pass? Or is that the plan? A no vote thus allowing the northern states to walk away from this mess and form their own block?

9 comments:

banker said...

The eurozone's EFSF bailout fund may have its AAA rating cut if S&P downgrades the sovereign debt of the nations backing it, making it even harder to get the firepower to back indebted nations. The €440 billion EFSF was created in May last year to protect vulnerable eurozone nations after Greece was bailed out by the European Union and the IMF. It has since been used to provide rescue loans to Ireland and Portugal.
With a AAA rating, the EFSF is able to raise funds in the bond market with much lower interest rates than bailed out nations would get on their own. A "CreditWatch negative" placement means there is at least a one-in-two probability that the rating will be lowered in the short term, the agency said. The ratings agency placed the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) on "negative" watch after doing the same for 15 eurozone members, including the six nations with top credit scores. "Depending on the outcome of our review of the ratings on EFSF member governments, we could lower the long-term rating on the EFSF by one or two notches, if any," said S&P in a statement. "We expect to resolve EFSF's CreditWatch placement within 90 days and, if possible sooner, after we complete the review of EFSF guarantor members currently rated 'AAA'," it said. As France and Germany quarrel about treaty changes designed to underpin the euro's long-term future, the more immediate threat – that Europe is fast sinking into a severe recession – seems to go largely ignored. Goldman Sachs is already forecasting a euro area contraction of 0.8pc next year, followed by a protracted period of economic weakness thereafter, and that's assuming that the bold policy initiatives required to prevent a collapse in the euro, according to the necessary timetable, are actually taken.

Anonymous said...

Primul-ministru al Marii Britanii, David Cameron, ameninţă că nu va semna niciun nou tratat european dacă nu va obţine "garanţii" suficiente pentru ţara sa.Liderul britanic a insistat că, dacă statele din zona euro doresc să folosească "instituţiile europene" pentru salvarea monedei unice, vor trebui să ofere o serie de "garanţii" Marii Britanii, informează BBC News online.

Preşedintele Franţei, Nicolas Sarkozy, şi cancelarul german Angela Merkel au propus modificarea tratatelor europene prin introducerea unor noi reglementări şi sancţiuni în zona euro în scopul garantării stabilităţii financiare pe termen lung.

As France and Germany quarrel about treaty changes designed to underpin the euro's long-term future, the more immediate threat – that Europe is fast sinking into a severe recession – seems to go largely ignored.

Goldman Sachs is already forecasting a euro area contraction of 0.8pc next year, followed by a protracted period of economic weakness thereafter, and that's assuming that the bold policy initiatives required to prevent a collapse in the euro, according to the necessary timetable, are actually taken.

Anonymous said...

Angela Merkel said S&P's decision to issue a downgrade warning on 15 eurozone countries, including Germany, was "none of her business" but the move dampened optimism in stockmarkets and triggered angry rebuttals across Europe.

Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France, said the US rating agency’s views were “completely at odds with events”. He criticised the timing of the report – released “the very evening France and Germany agreed on big decisions to solve the crisis”.

His Austrian counterpart, Ewald Nowotny, who is on the governing body of the European Central Bank (ECB), added: “The timing and the content of this warning has a clear political context.”

Anonymous said...

I fully concur with S&P's assessment:

"As the European economy slows, we believe that a reform process based on a pillar of fiscal austerity alone risks becoming self-defeating, eroding the revenue side of national budgets."

This is the problem - or the single greatest one. The main focus of the Merkozy agreement was on further austerity, and moreover sooner than later.

However when your economy already is sliding into a recession, to much austerity too soon, may be dept negative - meaning that your austerity shall push the economy into a nosedive hence rapidly raising the dept to GNP levels.

So on the contrary you don't want immediate up front austerity, but rather a focus on growth strategies over the short to medium; focusing on letting the austerity gradually come in over the medium to long term.

First you need to see some pick up from the economy - before you throw in the austerity.

Not the other way around - that leads to dept depression. We've already seen how that works out in Greece.

Yet Merkel wants to impose that failed program on the entire Euro zone.

MADNESS!

Anonymous said...

Bank Withdrawals Worsening Crisis

Nevertheless, the Greeks today only have €170 billion in savings -- almost 30 percent less than at the start of 2010.

The hemorrhaging of bank savings has had a disastrous impact on the economy. Many companies have had to tap into their reserves during the recession because banks have become more reluctant to lend. More Greek families are now living off their savings because they have lost their jobs or have had their salaries or pensions cut.

In August, unemployment reached 18.4 percent. Many Greeks now hoard their savings in their homes because they are worried the banking system may collapse.

Those who can are trying to shift their funds abroad. The Greek central bank estimates that around a fifth of the deposits withdrawn have been moved out of the country. "There is a lot of uncertainty," says Panagiotis Nikoloudis, president of the National Agency for Combating Money Laundering.

The banks are exploiting that insecurity. "They are asking their customers whether they wouldn't rather invest their money in Liechtenstein, Switzerland or Germany."

Anonymous said...

Bad Loans

The shrinking Greek bank deposits compare with bank loans totalling €253 million. Analysts say the share of bad loans could rise to 20 percent next year, or €50 billion, as a result of the recession. This in turn will worsen the already pressing liquidity problems faced by Greek banks.


Nikos B., a doctor in the Greek military, has had enough of the never-ending crisis his country is going through. While the 31-year-old has a secure job, repeated salary cuts have made it increasingly hard for him to make ends meet.

He needs most of his money to make loan repayments for a small car. "How can I clear my account? There's hardly anything in it," he says. He started learning German two months ago and wants to leave Greece. "As soon as possible!"

Nikos pauses and looks down. He quietly utters words that must be painful for a proud Greek. "It would be best to change nationality."

Anonymous said...

Greece's lawmakers overwhelmingly approved next year's austerity budget early Wednesday, extending tough spending cuts that have already left Greeks struggling as the country tries to slash its vast debts and tame a severe recession.

With three parties, including the majority socialists and their rival conservatives, participating in Greece's new coalition government, the budget was passed with a 258-41 majority in the 300-seat Parliament.

"This is a difficult budget ... with ambitious targets," Prime Minister Lucas Papademos told lawmakers just before the after-midnight vote. "But we must achieve our targets and implement the measures that are foreseen."

"The financial crisis in our country is not a passing storm," Papademos warned. "Given the size of the problems, our national effort will not be completed in 2012. It will take many years, and will require the efforts and insistence of several governments."



Read more: Greek Lawmakers Approve 2012 Austerity Budget
Important: Can you afford to Retire? Shocking Poll Results

Anonymous said...

Greece has been relying for financial survival on billions of dollars in rescue loans from other eurozone countries and the International Monetary Fund since May 2010. In return for the first bailout, the country imposed a series of harsh austerity measures, including salary and pension cuts and repeated rounds of tax hikes that have left the country mired in a deep recession.

Despite the measures, the government found itself persistently missing the fiscal targets set out in its first bailout. A second rescue package worth 130 billion euros ($175 billion) was put together in October, and includes plans for private creditors to write off 50 percent of their Greek bonds, potentially cutting the country's debt by euro100 billion. Negotiations on the details of the deal are expected to extend into the new year.

A sudden announcement last month by then prime minister George Papandreou that he would put the hard-fought deal to a referendum triggered a political crisis that forced him to step down and a coalition government be formed. Former central banker Papademos has been appointed to lead the interim government until early elections, tentatively set for February.

The crisis has taken its toll on the popularity of Greece's main political parties, though Papandreou's Socialists have taken the severest hit. Just two years after a landslide election victory with 44 percent of the vote, they are polled at enjoying just 15.3 percent support and trail the conservatives who have 21.5 percent, according to a GPO survey for Mega television.

The poll of 1,400 adults was conducted between Nov. 30 and Dec. 5. No margin of error was given.

According to the poll, the vast majority of Greeks — 80.7 percent — believe the country's financial situation will deteriorate further in 2012, while 79.3 percent believe Greece's rescue deal with the EU and IMF failed to resolve the debt crisis.

Anonymous said...

NEW YORK (Commodity Online): Goldbugs who call for a return to the Gold standard as a means to solve the financial crisis are lunatics, global economist Nouriel Roubini said.



"One of the major causes of the Great Depression was the existence of the gold standard”, Roubini argues. "They restrained the ability of Central Banks to provide lender-of-last-resort support to their banks, created tight money — it created bank runs, and Lead eventually to the Great Depression”, he said in a Yahoo interview.



Limiting the amount of money supply will render the authorities powerless to act as a lender of last resort when the situation so demands. A return to the Gold standard will be a “total nonsense” and those who support t are a "bunch of lunatics and hacks”



An earlier report by Roubini had suggested that the world is heading for a double dip recession as economic uncertainty, unemployment and social and political tensions in the West will cause the governments to fall.