Wednesday, December 14, 2011

... in the end the Euro breaks up.

I think we will find that this €200billion back door funding through the IMF will not happen - the IMF have said that money given cannot be prioritised to a specific area. Mario Draghi has also pointed out that it would contravene EU treaty law (not that means much these days) but this fund was part of the deal that Merkozy tried to foist on the UK and the other non-euro countries along with the FTT. The UK or rather Cameron did not agree to be part of it, therefore I don't think he will. Also both Cameron and Osborne have pointed out previously that the IMF cannot be used to support a currency. Can you imagine the fall out if every penny of the government's limited spending cuts and savings were suddenly being seen to being sent to bailout the Euro. There would quite rightly be a run on the pound, our interest rates would have to go up, more QE, more inflation. However, when is a veto not a veto? When it is exercised by the UK. Honestly, listening to the ghastly Ollie Rhen, Van Rumpoy and Barroso makes you realise that Cameron did absolutely the right thing. Can you imagine having to be in the same room as all that eurotrash for endless hours. Think of the smell. What happened to us in the UK when we tried several times to defend a Sterling exchange rate by selling reserves? It got us absolutely no-where because trying to defend the exchange rate is just a big bluff if everyone knows the exchange rate is basically wrong. And even if the ECB claims they are not going to defend one particular exchange rate, they are still going to put the reserves behind a Euro currency *structure* that is as wrong as $2.80 was for Sterling way back when. The Euro is defective and the market is on to it. Deploying national reserves will just lead to a series of "step" adjustments, consisting of nations exiting the Euro, but in the process, reserves will be spent and they should not be spent. In fact, the traders take the long view, which is that - in the end the Euro breaks up.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

As the UK did not sign up to the "summit deal" the 50 bn Euros would have to come from the other non-eurozone members. The question is do the Swedish, Danish and other non Euro countries a) have the money and b) the consent of their electorates to finance this ?

Anonymous said...

Give still more to the IMF? £30,000,000,000? I mean *give*? So it can be poured into a black hole, which is what it seems to me will happen? This in addition to the £9,000,000,000 we've already stumped up, and can probably say bye bye to?

No. Not today, thank you. Not ever.

Time to leave the "EU", too, and to leave as soon as possible.

Anonymous said...

After last Thursday the answer must be no thanks.
Last Thursday's trick:-
Merkozy wanted €40bn per annum from the UK in FTT paid to the EU.....i.e. €1600 per household p.a.

Anonymous said...

Several countries that don't use the common currency feel they shouldn't need to adhere to the same restrictions as those that do. And some less well-off countries resent having to help bail out more-affluent neighbors. Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the leader of Poland's main opposition party, lays flowers Tuesday before a demonstration in Warsaw. On Tuesday, the leaders of Sweden and the Czech Republic said it was too early to count on their countries' support, which they said was impossible to predict before the particulars of the agreements were finalized. In Hungary, the parliament has yet to consider the matter. "There are many complicated questions and we must wait for the full details before making a decision," Czech Prime Minister Petr Necas said Tuesday. In Sweden, Finance Minister Anders Borg said, "We must continue to evaluate what it is that has been agreed. It is clear that Sweden will not enter this cooperation on the same terms as euro-zone members." In Poland, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the leader of the opposition Law and Justice party, and a former prime minister, addressed protesters gathered near the gates of the Polish president's official residence and lashed out at the government's vocal support for the EU measures. "This undermines our status as a sovereign state, our position, our dignity," Mr. Kaczynski said. "We can't agree to this. We can't, we can't and we won't."

Anonymous said...

the Financial Times and the Daily Mail have taken the same line on events in Europe in this morning's papers.

Both say cracks are starting to show in the agreement reached between 26 of the 27 EU nations last Friday, with Britain the odd one out, as governments have to put forward the changes to their own parliaments and electorates.

Now, the FT says, "the pressure is acute in non-eurozone countries where at least four governments warned that the precise text would determine whether they could sign up or otherwise join the UK on the sidelines."

The Czech leader Petr Necas said "there is not much more than a blank sheet of paper" on offer at the moment.

Within the euro, Ireland's PM Enda Kenny was facing calls to put the plans for more central control over tax abd spending to a referendum, and Holland'sleader Mark Rutte also under pressure.

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