Saturday, January 7, 2012

The latest draft of a new pact on the financial crisis, focusing on how the European Commission can sanction debt-sinners and how to merge the new treaty with EU law despite a UK veto. According to this draft version of the new pact sent to national governments on Thursday, the commission "may, on behalf of contracting parties" bring a legal case before the European Court of Justice if the countries subscribing to the pact break the so-called golden rule of keeping balanced budgets which are to be enshrined in national constitutions. In a first version of the text drafted last month, only member states could take fellow countries to court for breaching the debt-brake rule. But getting the commission - which represents all 27 member states and is bound by the EU treaties - involved in an intergovernmental arrangement at 26-level poses legal challenges which could be attacked in the EU court. The problem arises after the UK in December vetoed writing the new measures into the EU Treaty directly because it was unhappy over upcoming legislation which might affect the City of London. The legal trick to get around the issue could be mandating the commission to act "on behalf" of member states, one EU diplomat said. LET'S NOT FORGET : The Commission is not an elected body and the Parliament has no legislative power ! British Prime Minister David Cameron pledged to do "everything possible" to stop signatories of a new fiscal treaty from using the European Commission and the European Court of Justice. "You can't have a treaty outside the EU that starts doing what should be done within the EU," he told BBC.

The perfect ‘storm scenario’ for the euro in 2012:

• Widespread downgrades, including of the eurozone’s remaining Triple A countries, by credit rating agencies. Serious questions would be raised over the viability of the eurozone’s bailout funds as they rely on an ever thinner list of Triple A eurozone states, leaving the euro with little more than a paper tiger as a backstop.


• Spanish banks could hit the iceberg as households fail to pay their mortgages and the level of non-performing loans pile up. If it gets bad enough, the Spanish government wouldn't afford to recapitalise these banks on its own and must seek a potentially huge bailout from the EU/IMF.


• In addition to those in Spain, one or more banks in Italy or France could sink due to large exposure to weaker euro states - following a hard Greek default for example. As in Spain, there are doubts as to whether these governments could afford to bail out their banks without outside help.

3 comments:

grrrr... said...

Europe - excluding the UK - decided in December to give the EU more power in enforcing budgetary discipline in member states. Belgium seems to be one of the first nations to get a slap on the wrist.
The EC has rejected Belgium's 2012 budget as overly optimistic and is demanding it cut up to €2bn more to avoid breaching the 3pc threshold.

In a letter sent yesterday to Belgian FM Steven Vanackere, the EU's Economic Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said his services "have come to the conclusion ... the deficit forecast for Belgium in 2012 should be updated to about 3.25 percent of GDP".

Belgium's new government should in consequence "in the coming days" agree to pare down the budget by about €1.2bn to €2bn, he said.

"This would allow us to conclude... that Belgium has undertaken the required fiscal effort," he said, calling on the country's new government to inform the Commission of its response "by the end of the week, latest by Monday morning."

Anonymous said...

No debate, no arguing no horse trading, just tell the foreign shit to get stuffed, cancell all our cheques to Brussels, stop paying child allowance to Polish children who have never left Poland. Send back the Bugarian and Romnian criminals and beggers plus the people and sex trafficers. Get our border back under our controll sink any dago fishing boats in our waters. Get rid of the human rights for the shit people laws and deport any scum bag whoi as been washed up on our shores. You now how it was fifty hen we governed our selves and English was the ONLY language you heard spoken on our streets, when you didn't get robbed or murdered by those of a different colour or language. When white girls were not groomed for sex by perveted backward muslim men. Yes bring back the way it was, but the politicians are so scared to death of doing that for it would prove them all wrong.

my take said...

the simplest way, as I understand it, is for the British government to revoke the European Communities Act 1973 - which would render EU law null and void in Britain. Or they could say that, in the referendum, the voters only voted favour of joining a free trade area - not an economic and political union - and point out that, according to British Constitutional law (yes, we do have it), sovereignty belongs to the people of Britain, and that the government had no more right to sign it away to a foreign power than I would have the right to sell your car if I stole it from you.

The problem is not that Cameron is unable to take us out of the EU - he's unwilling to do so. He won't even discuss the possibility, let alone give us any real say in the matter - as, for example, with the draconian way he used a three line whip on his own MPs when they had the debate about allowing us a referendum on the EU.

This side of the next election (always assuming we're allowed another one), I think the best hope is that the EU will tear itself to pieces.

The only other possibilities which come to mind is either that either UKIP get sufficient votes at the next election to hold the balance of power; or, that the Conservative Party throw Cameron out as leader, and elect a conservative instead.

They both seem long shots at the moment (especially the latter!), but every day that the EU becomes more visibly destructive, and self destructive, and more visibly bankrupt and anti-democratic, the more likely are our chances of forcing politicians to see reason.

In the long run, I don't think we have any chance of staying in the EU, because every action taken by its bosses over the last three years seems to confirm that they are hell bent on ignoring reality, and driving with the 'pedal to the metal', and their eyes firmly closed - so, unless they RADICALLY change their ways, the EU has no chance of survival.

That's my take on it