Friday, January 27, 2012

Merkel's floating of the idea of raiding the existing EU structural funds to create a new growth fund has already been dismissed by the EU Budget Commissioner (Hahn? Huhn? Something like that) as impractical. So that money is unlikely to suddenly become available in Brussels. I think it'll take a few more meetings to wear down her resistance. And they most definitely won't be called "fiscal transfers". (The phrase is absolute poison in german political terms, because everybody knows how much the reconstruction of east germany cost. And that was just 18 million basically hard-working and frugal germans, whose industrial base had just imploded). Doing a "solidarity surcharge Mark 2" for the eurozone periphery is simply beyond germany's capacity. But Monti and most german economic commentators, and the IMF, are all essentially saying the same thing. Austerity and reform, yes. But growth packages are essential too. And the money for that is presumably going to have to come from either EU or Eurozone states. So she'll presumably be presenting another package in the Bundestag soon, is my guess. I suspect to set up a new EU fund. As regards waiting until the elections. No, I don't think so - she's invested so much political capital in the eurozone crisis diplomacy that she can't put it on the backburner now.

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