Sunday, February 12, 2012

I don't...I wouldn't...I do...but...

I don't have a problem with the Greeks borrowing money at a rate and amount that two hundred years of their grandchildren would never be able to repay....I don't have a problem with the Greeks not collecting taxes to fund their nation. I wouldn't have a problem with the retirement age for Greeks being 24 years of age with a pension double the UK average wage (so long as it is Greece alone which is funding it). I don't have a problem with the EU for intentionally stripping each and every vestige of legitimate democracy from any nation idiotic enough to take its lies and deceit. I don't have a problem with the undeniable fact that the EU is - de facto - creating extremism across the continent by means of its own misplaced and malign grandiloquence. I don't have a problem with the possibility that those nations in such severe debt have recently been nations under dictatorship and military rule, and that such a status might once again shortly become incumbent within those borders. I do have a problem with the Government of my own nation being complicit in the practice, and that Government withholding any facet of input into the phenomenon from the electorate. I do have a problem with the Government of my own country pretending that everything is rosy in the garden, and that stripping just a wee bit more wealth from its electorate to throw into the bottomless Euro pit will improve its image among self-satisfied EU leaders at the next well-victualled continental jamboree. I do have a problem with the prostrate supplicants who worship at the altar of the EU, and the ignoramuses who justify the ambivalence of the UK political party tribes insulting those who rail against these practices as being racist xenophobes. I do have a problem in being compelled to fund, by compulsorily extracted taxation, the levers by which the entire disaster will be choreographed. I don't understand why the gutless drones who staff the major parties in Parliament have no problem dropping undefined future generations into limitless penury - at the whim of effete party leaders incapable of rational thought. Maybe in two hundred years time, someone might be able to piece it all together.....But it will be too bloody late then.

24 comments:

Anonymous said...

I assume that if a disorderly default happens, both greece and ECB will slam emergency capital controls in place and work out what to do next. But that's not the same as throwing them out of the eurozone. In fact, since this default is happening in slow motion, they may even work it out ahead of time.

About the last thing greece is going to need, if it defaults, is a worthless currency. The popularity of the Euro on the part of the populace is entirely understandable. They're going to need to buy the necessities of life, after all

Anonymous said...

There's no mechanism to 'put out' a country from the EZ that I know of. Please point to the law etc, all that stuff is usually available online.

The connection is not quite totally arbitrary, in that this is about the EZ, but why does the vote on austerity have to be connected to the vote on membership? Unless there is some punishing mechanism happening that is a secret, selective, and despotic rule that people do not know about.

bwbitz said...

you're right there is no mechanism for putting a country outside of the EZ. I have no precise info on what could happen in case of a default, but if we do educated guesses, I imagine that greek banks could not have "credit lines" open with the ECB? Is there some insurance found for guaranteeing greek bank deposits in case of crash? Will the Bank of Greece continue the physical production of euros notes? Will the EZ ministers of finance accept the greek finance minister to their meetings? If not, will Venizelos recourse, and to whom? Etc etc.

All this points towards big uncertainties, so describing it as "going out of the eurozone" is not a so bad description. You can be sure that Merkozy would try to effectively put Greece out of the eurozone.

Anonymous said...

correct. There doesn't appear to be any danger of them being thrown out of the eurozone. Venizelos is lying again. It's the austerity or a disorderly default, as the options.

Generally in agreement with you but a disorderly default would probably mean Greece would shortly be forced out of the Eurozone, not by the Troika or other governments but by an inability to access Euros by its banks.

Also it would need to impose capital controls, which would be a breach of various Treaties.

So Venizelos was probably not lying but using a shortcut: choice is auterity or disorderly default + exit

Anonymous said...

If they (Greece) are forced out it will not be by some lawful process but through economic necessity, in a formal way they could stil be 'in the EZ' unless new policy emerges which states clearly how a nation exits, which they seem reluctant to do (for other reasons to do with the protectionism racket that this has become, they don't want nations flipping in and out at random, it would remove the whole effect of a single currency and the advantages of the 'core').

Anonymous said...

The EU would have to build an exit in the Eurozone building which at the moment doesn't exist & and any agreement to dismiss a member would have to be ratified by all 27 EU members (similar to December's treaty changes). It may be swift or it may take time, but it most certainly will be tumultuous.

Venizelos is being disingenious in the extreme, because he knows the ruling parties will get decimated in any election if the austerity measures to be voted on this Sunday by Parliament, aren't dressed up in EZ membership clothes.

It's a sick joke really. But like i've been saying for the last 2 years..

This will not end slowly. This will not end well

Anonymous said...

About the last thing greece is going to need, if it defaults, is a worthless currency. The popularity of the Euro on the part of the populace is entirely understandable. They're going to need to buy the necessities of life, after all.

The new drachma will be initially irrelevant to the Greeks who have big matresses or a really full sock drawer. So what if €1 = 10000 drachma or whatever?. The already large Greek underground/tax evasive market will gladly accept those euro Grandpa hid somewhere in the house. Greece will use the euro just as the Balkans used the DM during the 1990's.

The black market will begin to implode when Greeks exhaust their euro savings. Then the hyperinflation will begin. Less and less Greeks will have hard currency to buy anything. The underground market will set the drachma exchange heavily in their favor, even if that means exploding the currency. Greeks will then be at the mercy of organized crime and proffiteers.

mik said...

"Once again, Germany is controlling everything for us," said Mr Basdekis.

"They are pushing us around, and I just don't trust them. They change what they say all the time.

"Greece will pay its debts back, if you let us. But not with a German knife held to our throats."


Yet last week the knife was once again brandished at the ailing Greek government by its EU paymasters. Riots erupted in Athens on Friday, with furious Greeks hurling petrol bombs at the police as the harsh austerity package was unveiled. Unions also began a 48-hour strike, with politicians expected on Sunday to vote on the cuts and reforms.

Eurozone ministers say MPs must approve it before Greece receives €130bn (£109bn) in bailout funds. They are also demanding further budget cuts of €325m before Wednesday's meeting of the Eurogroup, when Brussels is due to decide whether to give Greece the money it desperately needs.

The politicians in Athens had little choice. Unemployment figures released last week showed that the number out of work had risen to 20.9 per cent, while Greece's manufacturing output fell by 15.5 per cent in the year leading up December. Behind closed doors EU officials were debating suggestions that Greece exit the eurozone and drawing up plans for an "orderly default".

The government, desperate to starve off bankruptcy and guarantee the next tranche of rescue funds, agreed after much wringing of hands to a cut in the minimum wage of 22 per cent; the sacking of 150,000 public sector workers within the year, and the slashing of pensions.

And Mr Basdekis, with his pension of €400 a month, does not know how he will survive.

"All my life, I have been proud to work and support myself. And now that has been taken away from me," he said. "I liked the feeling of being able to buy something with my own money. I worked hard and looked after my home. But that has gone. They have taken away my pride."

Gazing sadly out across the snowy central square, flanked by steep mountains, Mr Basdekis pointed to the yard where his five 32-ton Mercedes trucks, for each of which he paid €120,000 when new, stood idle. A change in the law demanded by the EU – ironically designed to stimulate the sector and open it up to competition – drove him out of business.

He had paid €90,000 per licence for his trucks – an artificially high price, but a result of the difficulty of obtaining the limited-issue documents.

Then, when the industry was liberalised, his competitors obtained cheap permits and drove him out of business, leaving him still to pay for his fifth lorry. He was forced to fire his four drivers, and closed the family business that supported his two sons, four grandchildren and two great grandchildren. He would do well to get €100,000 for selling all five lorries together, a fraction of what he originally paid.

Even more galling for the sprightly pensioner is the fact that he cannot afford to care for his wife, who has Alzheimers and needs 24-hour nursing.

"I have been in love with her from the age of 15," he said, tears brimming in his eyes. "She always looked after me. And now I cannot look after her." He takes a deep breath, pulling his neatly-pressed tweed suit tighter around his chest.

"But we have lived through worse, of course. I am just very worried for my grandchildren. What will all this mean for them?"

Certainly the 4,000 inhabitants of Distomo, 100 miles north west of Athens, are more aware than most of the legacy of German demands – albeit in a horrific context, far beyond the suffering of any economic policies.

The town was the site of one of the worst atrocities committed by the Nazis against civilians in Greece, with 218 people of its then 500 residents killed by the SS on a single day in June 1944, in savage reprisal for partisan guerrilla attacks on German forces.

Anonymous said...

"Our generation resents Germany for different reasons to our grandparents. But the old sentiment is resurfacing."

The mayor of the town, Ioannis Patsantaras, condemned those who burnt the German flag, describing them as "isolated extremists". But he admitted that the people were angry.

"It is the culmination of 30 years of mismanagement by our government," he said. "Politicians were acting for personal or political gain, rather than in the interests of the people. And now we are a sick people, who must survive the operation ahead of us."

A fighter pilot for 38 years, Mr Patsantaras rose to become the chief of Greece's tactical air force. Glass paperweights etched with fighter planes sit on his desk; a photo of him in aviator sunglasses and a bomber jacket sit beside his computer. But he says his time in the forces, meeting RAF pilots and being based in Belgium with Nato, taught him the importance of working for a united Europe.

"The very word 'Europe' is derived from Greek. Ancient Greece was made of rival city states who learnt to work together, so it is in our history and in our blood," he said.

But surely that all fell apart in bitter wars?

"And then something bigger and better was born!" he said, laughing

Anonymous said...

So the Greeks cook the books to get into the Euro. They make paying taxes optional. They allow civil servants to retire at 45. They spend spend spend on public services for years knowing they could not afford it and had to borrow billions.

But now, when Germany et al come in to bail them out they bite the hand that poured tens of billions of euros of other country's tax payers money into Greece. They whine and moan and pour hatred on those who help it.

Pathetic. We need Greece to leave the Euro and go away, far far away.

Anonymous said...

Your countrymen (like France) did NOT 'win the war'. The US and UK did. You've watched The Guns of Navarone one time too many! Maybe we should have let the Nazis keep Greece as they couldn't have done a worse job of running the place if they tried! It seems clear to me that the Ancient Greeks were a different breed of people altogether and were eventually overwhelmed by immigrants from inferior nations and states who left the descendants that now have ruined the place. Does the same fate await the UK in the coming centuries

Anonymous said...

Were it not for the British army,
Greece would have had a communist government since the late 1940s, perhaps with oversight from Moscow too.
Be grateful that the awful mess is not a lot worse

Anonymous said...

For countless centuries, Greece has been held up as the great teacher of Western Civilization. It is my fervent hope that Greece has taught one and all that a socialistic governmental form absolutely does not work. It can not work for a number of very simple reasons that no one seemed to figure out for themselves. The idea of a perpetually expanding population coupled with a perpetually expanding economy simply can not work over the long term.

Now that we have that small lesson learned, can we now finally get away from the Keynesian mentality that the amount of money in the world is limitless and all we have to do is just spend what we do not have and all will be good in the end? If we are very, very lucky there is enough time left to save the world's economies. But this also presumes that the political class has the simple wit to learn what we have all seen. A very tall order indeed.

Anonymous said...

That headline really has given me a good laugh. "Greece will pay its debts back, if you let us. But not with a German knife held to our throats." That's what you call a GREAT BIG FAT GREEK LIE! They couldn't even if they wanted to.

What's the substance of his problem? He bought five lorries on credit for 600K euros. He paid, corruptly in principle if not in practice, another 540K for operating licences, perhaps also on credit. Then the permit system was reformed - no doubt under outside pressure - and some competitors turned up who were able to invest less for the same operating plant. That's called "perfectly normal business". He doesn't tell us why he didn't then succeed in standing up to the competition - perhaps because his credit repayments were too high and sank the business; perhaps due to ingrained inefficiency. Now he is effectively bankrupt, and the public are getting a transport service more cheaply than before. That's the capitalist system, buddy. It got us out of the caves. Pity it wasn't applied to the British banks...

He has a semi-legitimate grievance about the permits. But if a system is corrupt, it needs to be reformed. Those who have acquired a vested interest in the system, quite rightly, lose out. The alternative would be for the government to protect his business by continuing to charge a ridiculous sum for permits. Which would be the indefinite continuation of corruption. He's just the man in the game of musical chairs who was left standing up when the music stopped.

Anonymous said...

Greece must share a large part of the blame, however the EU should also shoulder some. They made the whole Euro experiment look very attractive to encourage as many countries as it could to join. Germany then twisted the fiscal rules to suit itself leading to everyone else ignoring them. Bottom line is that it has failed because of the disparity between national economies. Maybe if it could be confined to the northern European states it may have worked out but now? Well I can't see any other solution for Greece but to default and leave. After that I'm sure that a tranche of the other less able states will follow.

Anonymous said...

Obviously Greece has lived large for too long but wouldn't it be grand to see the European Union disband so all the countries that signed on to predictable German domination could retrieve their individuality, re-grow their economies, retain their borders and enjoy their own cultures.

And then watch the UK thrive, as it returns to the great and dignified nation they once were. The European Union was always a pathway for dictators-in-waiting

Anonymous said...

As an aside, it's Merkels' own fault the Greek people don't trust Germany now. The morning after Papandrou announced Greece would have a referendum, she contacted the other politicians advising them who their next leader should be! This was reported in 'Athens Today', with an interview with one of the Greek politicians she spoke to.

Anonymous said...

ow the real crooks for the Greek disaster have appeared from behind the hedge, the leaders of each Greek political party. and you can be sure, the most ruthless crook will win the election with the promise not to pay back any credits and refuse any austerity. That is the focus for dealing with the Greek disaster, all others, especially the triple A lenders, should relax and only listen to the proposals by the crooks. There is no need for actions by anybody outside of Greece, as the threat of contagion exists only, as long Greece is in the Euro-Zone and wasting and stealing ever growing amounts of Billions from honest taxpayers. Greece must therefore for the economic health of Europe leave the Euro immediately and default, regardless whether disorderly, controlled or selective. The Greek default will be a salvation for all economies around the world also for the British you must not pay any longer by IMF and other backdoors, like Cohesion fund, for the most corrupt Politicians in Europe who are falsifying every figure in their balance, even the olive crop to receive more farmer subsidies from the honest tax payers outside of Greece

Anonymous said...

I agree that a debt must be repaid. But, just supposing we, in the UK were in the same situation as Greece is now; had also been invaded by Germany and with various accounts of reprisal killings... It's hard to imagine this situation but would our attitude be significantly different? I guess it would.

Whtever happens to Greece and whether they pay fully, in part or not at all, I feel pretty sure that others' harsh attitudes now will come back to haunt them, politically, socially and maybe even personally too in the future.

Whatever the situation is, we should use every opportunity to retain an attitude of decency especially as ordinary people will be losing their homes and facing ruin, so let's not judge them. Instead, our will would be better focused on helping the string-pullers to reconstruct a better framework for the future.

How can we do that? I've no idea, I'm just an ordinary Joe but there must be some solutions.

Anonymous said...

No gold was stolen - that is an urban legend. Greek gold spent the war in England and was returned to Greece after the war. Germany has been subsidising Greece for over 3o years in the EU - net payments from Germany as a net contributor to Greece as a permanent net recipient were 35 bn euros since 1981 from Germany alone! Greece was invaded by Mussolini's Italy like Northern Africa, at that time Germany's ally, Germany had to go in because posturing Italy couldn't keep it up. Very sad about all the hardship in Greece, but this article (thank you DT!) makes me support cutting all support to Greece. We haven't cheated, lied, falsified statistics as Greece has, we have been paying all our lives into the EU coffers supporting Greece. Enough. Let them go. May they fend for themselves, asking Germany for imagined compensations, like Zimbabwe asking for compensation from Britain for slavery.

Anonymous said...

"They did this" "They did that" You seem to not be able to divorce the citizens from the goverment. Just because a group of German-Franco banks and Euro goverments screwed up, doesnt mean pensioners should have to suffer. Should we crucify every Brit for Iraq? Frankly, I can understand their anger. They are being locked into a Nazi currency in-order to safe-gaurd German banks. Why should Italy, Greece, Ireland etc.. have to suffer for Germany? Why cant we just end the EU and be independent?. Europe was better before the Euro anyway

Anonymous said...

I read a book by a chap name John Perkins a couple of years ago, a book entitled 'Confessions Of An Economic Hit Man'.

In the book he outlines how the financial powers behind our world have historically gone about robbing nations of their real wealth.

The bankers first go into a nation and corrupt its government with bribes and threats et'cs, forcing them to take on board massive loans.

Loans which are guaranteed using the real assets of that particular nation. The water and power companies, historic tourist attractions, gold mines, et'c, et'c.

Of course the nations are never meant to repay the loans, and it is made sure that they never do.

At which point the financial powers then move their corporations into those said nations. Allowing them to buy up any real assets for what are firesale prices.

Sound familiar?

Well it is not that long ago that Goldman Sachs had its representatives in Greece deciding upon which assets it wished to take possession of once Greece has defaulted.

And remember were it not for Goldman Sachs having actually cooked Greece's books in order for it to join the dreaded EU/Euro, she would now not be in the terrible financial mess that she now is.

Debt is literally being used in order to entrap nations, and through so doing actually 'rob them' of all of their real wealth.

Anonymous said...

Greece's parliament will on Sunday decide whether to impose another round of swingeing austerity measures on its increasingly angry population, in return for fresh international aid.

If Prime Minister Lucas Papademos gets his way, the country's deputies will authorise him to agree the cuts required to obtain a second massive bail-out from the EU and IMF, to the tune of 130 billion euros ($171 billion).

But they also have to approve moves to recapitalise Greek banks, which may involve a degree of nationalisation if they cannot get sufficient private money.

And they must back a bond swap which, after long and tortuous negotiations, has finally been agreed with private creditors.

That is designed to wipe out around 100 billion euros from Greece's 350 billion euro debt, reducing the country's massive debt burden to 120 percent of GDP.



GREECE
As Europe huffs and puffs, Greece fights to stay afloat


If deputies reject the package however, Greece will not get the money it needs to stave off bankruptcy on March 20, when it has to repay nearly 14.5 billion euros in maturing debt.

Papademos on Saturday urged the parliament to pass the painful austerity measures demanded by creditors, warning of "economic and social catastrophe" if it doesn't.

Anonymous said...

On a day of dire warnings and stormy debate on Saturday, leaders of the ruling coalition told uneasy MPs to support the bill or be dropped from party lists for an election that could come by April.

At least 20 deputies from the two main parties in the Papademos coalition threatened on Saturday to vote no, but the bulk of the coalition's 236 MPs are still all but certain to approve the package. Six members of the cabinet have resigned.

The finance minister, Evangelos Venizelos, said the deal had to be approved by Sunday or the country would miss a deadline on 17 February to offer the debt "haircut" to its private-sector bondholders.

Eurozone finance ministers also expect Greece to explain by then how €325m from this year's total budget cuts, as yet unspecified, will be achieved before it agrees to the bailout.

Bailout documents released on Friday left blank the amount of the full rescue package, and Venizelos said Greece might need €15bn more to save the country's banks, confirming estimates from EU officials.

The EU and IMF say they will not release the aid without clear commitments by the main party leaders that reforms will be implemented, whoever wins the next election.