A dangerous development (for the whole Europe) - the faith of Greece is decided in the German Parliament - (is this the IVth. Reich ?) - Government spokesman Pantelis Kapsis, speaking to AFP: --We have a very, very good cooperation with the German government and it has contributed a lot in finalising the accord. Greece relies on this cooperation and hopes this will be borne out by the vote of the German parliament...The Greek Parliament meanwhile, has just passed a law on the debt swap with private bondholders. To complicare the issues, the IMF has consistently underestimated the depth of the Greek recession. At some point, it becomes rational for Greeks to ask, is the euro worth this kind of punishment? The new law - just passed by the Greek Parliament - is a key piece of the Greek plan and will help push through €107bn in debt write downs. The Government hopes that 66% of private creditors will agree to the haircut, allowing Athens to impose a Collective Action Clause to force the rest to follow. AFP points out that the Parliamentary vote was not in doubt as the two coalition government partners, the Socialists in PASOK and the conservative New Democracy party, have 193 of 300 seats in parliament. Three leftist parties as well as the extreme right opposed the bill, saying it would "be profitable for banks and monopolies and not the population," according to deputy Thanassis Pafilis. The package is no guarantee that the problems in Greece will be solved. Greece will have to take extensive measures and show that it implements the necessary reforms. By the way, it is uncertain when Greece will again get market access, making it therefore impossible to rule out that Greece needs extra public sector support.Die Griechen sollen ihr Defizit 2009 falsch ausgewiesen haben - allerdings nicht zu niedrig, sondern zu hoch. Die angeblich falsche Zahl bekam allerdings den Segen der EU. Das Parlament untersucht den Fall. Ein parlamentarischer Untersuchungsausschuss soll in Athen untersuchen, ob die Zahlen zum griechischen Staatsdefizit 2009 manipuliert worden sind. Die Einsetzung des Gremiums beschloss das Parlament in der Nacht zu Donnerstag. Ermittlungen des Athener Staatsanwaltes Grigoris Peponis brachten die Affäre ins Rollen. Er verdächtigt den Chef der griechischen Statistikbehörde Elstat, Andreas Georgiou. Aber auch der frühere Ministerpräsident Giorgos Papandreou könnte in Misskredit geraten.
La récession frappe à nouveau les pays de l'euro, pour la seconde fois en trois ans. La zone monétaire verra son PIB se contracter de 0,3% en 2012, d'après des prévisions de la Commission européenne qui ne paraissent épargner que les deux plus grosses économies: la France et l'Allemagne. La révision en baisse - Bruxelles tablait encore à l'automne sur une hausse de l'activité de 0,5% - s'étend à l'ensemble de l'Union européenne. La France échappe au retournement avec un pronostic de croissance de 0,4%, à peu près en ligne avec les dernières prévisions du gouvernement Fillon (+ 0,5%). À défaut d'être une locomotive, l'Allemagne permet à l'UE d'éviter le pire. Avec une croissance attendue de 0,6 %, la première économie européenne tire ses voisins directs de l'enlisement, à l'image de la France, de l'Autriche (+ 0,7%), du Danemark (+ 1,1%) ou encore de la Pologne (+ 2,5%). Il existe deux exceptions de taille à l'effet d'entraînement: les Pays-Bas qui plongeraient de 0,9%, et la Belgique de 0,1%.
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FRANKFURT—European Central Bank President Mario Draghi delivered a stern message to countries in Europe's debt-saddled periphery, insisting the region's worsening economic malaise wasn't an invitation to relax deficit targets.
"There is no feasible trade-off" between economic overhauls and fiscal belt-tightening, Mr. Draghi said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, his first since Greece sealed its second bailout. "Backtracking on fiscal targets would elicit an immediate reaction by the market," pushing interest-rate spreads higher, he said.
Mr. Draghi's comments come amid an intensifying debate in Europe over whether deeper austerity is the best prescription for countries facing substantial economic ...
MADRID—The European Union on Thursday sharply downgraded its growth outlook for the region's economies, raising new questions about the virtues of austerity and setting the stage for a renegotiation of budget-deficit targets for some member states.
As the result of slowing global growth and a flare-up of the euro zone's debt crisis, the EU forecast gross domestic product for the 17 users of the common currency will contract 0.3% this year, compared with a previous forecast of 0.5% growth. Italy, Greece and Spain, all countries that are pushing through draconian austerity measures, suffered the biggest downgrades
Athens told to change spending and taxes
EU creditor countries poised to micromanage Greece --Horst Rechenbach is de facto the Governor of Greece !!!!!DEuttchland uber allesssss
European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn addresses the media Feb. 23, 2012, at the European Commission headquarters in Brussels. The 17-nation eurozone economy will suffer a modest recession this year despite recent signs of stabilization, particularly in financial markets, the European Union’s executive branch said Thursday. (Associated Press)
Spain is expected to contract 1 percent in 2012, against the 0.7 percent growth predicted in the fall. The Commission warned that if the Spanish government enacts further budget cuts in an effort to meet its 2012 targets, its economy will likely shrink even more.
Rehn dodged questions on whether the Commission would be willing to give Spain more time to cuts its deficits considering the country’s worsened economic situation. Under current commitments to the EU, Spain has to cut its deficit to 4.4 percent of GDP for 2012. But the new government, facing another recession, has hinted it wants the EU to lower the target a bit.
BRUSSELS — The 17-nation eurozone economy will suffer a modest recession this year despite recent signs of stabilization, particularly in financial markets, the European Union’s executive branch said Thursday.
In its latest projections, the European Commission forecast a 0.3 percent contraction in the eurozone economy, with Greece leading the way downward with a massive 4.4 percent decline.
That would be the fifth straight year of recession in Greece, which earlier this week clinched its second massive bailout package in less than two years.
In its last forecast in November, the Commission predicted a 0.5 percent expansion across the eurozone economy following last year’s 1.4 percent growth. The difference this time is that it now expects the economies of Belgium, Spain, Italy, Cyprus, the Netherlands and Slovenia to contract in 2012, not just Greece and Portugal.
La zone euro replongera dans le rouge en 2012, d'après la Commission européenne. En France, la croissance serait de 0,4%.
La récession frappe à nouveau les pays de l'euro, pour la seconde fois en trois ans. La zone monétaire verra son PIB se contracter de 0,3% en 2012, d'après des prévisions de la Commission européenne qui ne paraissent épargner que les deux plus grosses économies: la France et l'Allemagne.
La révision en baisse - Bruxelles tablait encore à l'automne sur une hausse de l'activité de 0,5% - s'étend à l'ensemble de l'Union européenne. La France échappe au retournement avec un pronostic de croissance de 0,4%, à peu près en ligne avec les dernières prévisions du gouvernement Fillon (+ 0,5%).
À défaut d'être une locomotive, l'Allemagne permet à l'UE d'éviter le pire. Avec une croissance attendue de 0,6 %, la première économie européenne tire ses voisins directs de l'enlisement, à l'image de la France, de l'Autriche (+ 0,7%), du Danemark (+ 1,1%) ou encore de la Pologne (+ 2,5%). Il existe deux exceptions de taille à l'effet d'entraînement: les Pays-Bas qui plongeraient de 0,9%, et la Belgique de 0,1%.
L'économie de la zone euro se redresse très lentement mais sa reprise reste fragile, estime le président de la Banque centrale européenne, Mario Draghi, dans une interview publiée aujourd'hui par le Wall Street Journal.
Même si les marchés financiers sont plus stables qu'il y a encore quelques mois, il est difficile de dire si la crise de la dette de la région est terminée, note le président de la BCE. "La reprise se déroule très lentement et demeure sujette à des risques baissiers", a dit Mario Draghi au WSJ. "Il est difficile de dire si la crise est terminée."
Dans une interview distincte accordée au journal allemand Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ), Mario Draghi a relevé des signaux positifs en Europe depuis la dernière réunion de politique monétaire de la BCE, malgré une "incertitude (qui) demeure élevée".
Il a souligné que l'inflation était sous contrôle et a exclu le risque de voir la zone euro connaître une décennie perdue similaire à celle traversée par le Japon. "Ce qui me rend confiant, ce sont les réformes qui ont été initiées en Europe ces quatre à cinq derniers mois", a dit Mario Draghi à FAZ.
Die überraschend positive Stimmung in den Chefetagen deutscher Unternehmen ließ Aktienanleger kalt. Sie unterbrachen ihre Verkäufe nur kurzzeitig. Der Unions-Fraktionsvize, Michael Meister, sorgte am Nachmittag zudem mit Aussagen zum zweiten Rettungspaket für Griechenland für Verunsicherung. Er hatte in einem Interview gesagt, dass der Bundestag seine Zustimmung an ein positives Votum des Internationalen Währungsfonds koppeln werde.
Nach einem positiven Wochenbeginn verlor der DAX den dritten Tag in Folge und sank um ein halbes Prozent auf 6809,46 Punkte. Auch der TecDAX büßte 0,77 Prozent ein, der MDAX sackte um 0,11 Prozent ab. Der EuroStoxx50 notierte 0,4 Prozent tiefer bei 2507,95 Punkten. An der Wall Street lag der US-Standardwerteindex Dow Jones bei Börsenschluss in Deutschland 0,4 Prozent im Plus.
European solidarity is not an end in itself and should not be a one-way street. Germany’s engagement has reached it limits,” said the text, drafted by Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats and Free Democrat (FDP) allies.
“Germany itself faces strict austerity to comply with the national debt brake,” said the declaration, which will go to the Bundestag next week. Lawmakers said there is no scope to boost the EU’s “firewall” to €750bn, either by increasing the new European Stability Mechanism (ESM) or by running it together with the old bail-out fund (EFSF).
The tough stance reflects popular disgust in Germany at escalating demands. Bowing to pressure, Chancellor Merkel’s office said an increase in the ESM was “not necessary” since Italian and Spanish bond markets have recovered.
Germany is now on a collision course with world powers, the IMF and even key allies in Europe’s AAA-core. The Netherlands and Finland are willing to boost the EU firewall to €750bn.
The IMF has hinted it may cut its share of Greece’s €130bn (£110bn) package and warned that its members will not commit $500bn (£318bn) more in funds to ringfence Italy and Spain unless Europe beefs up its rescue scheme
Greece is dead in the water passing laws to get a bailout the nobody actually has thought how to fund... If they can fund at all....
Every tom dick and harry is on the radio today saying that the Euro is going to go bang and are saying what we all know that the EuroPrats haven't got a clue....
The FTSE is struggling to break through the 6000-6100 resistance and if it doesn't manage it in the next week or so then expect a sell off.....
The PIIGS are all keeping their heads down but there is a stream of bad news coming from them... Expect some developments there pretty soon when they demand a similar write down to greece....
Anyway I have come up with a couple of trades for to medium term.... Both Spread Trades.... Sell the Gilt Bund Spread and also buy the Italian Gilt spread... Expect the Gilt Bund to widen to 2pct by mid year and the Italian Bonds to rally further this year before selling off in the winter.
39 Italy's bond sale has gone well: its zero-coupon two-year bond fell to 3.01pc, its lowest level since May. The country sold €4.5bn in zero-coupon and inflation-linked bonds.
10.18 Given the 0.8pc decline in manufacturing output contained in those GDP figures, I wonder if the Chancellor will come under any pressure to reverse his decision to slash 'capital allowances', a tax break designed to stimulate investment by manufacturers, from April. The message from the Government is about inspiring a "march of the makers" but some manufacturers have questioned the Coalition's commitment to that pledge given the move to cut a tax concession designed to encourage business investment by 75pc.
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