Saturday, March 3, 2012

The EU people are hopeless bungling fools who seem to think that making laws and agreements can, as if by magic, 'create reality'.

Credit Default Swaps (CDS) allow hedge funds and other actors in the markets to make large amounts of money in the event of a default of an entity that can be a company, or a government. They are a bit like allowing people to take out fire insurance on my house despite the fact that they have nothing to do with me, and don't own my house at all. And, of course, if hundreds of different people have taken out fire insurance on my house, it will hardly be a surprise if one day my house "accidentally" catches fire…Is this why there is so much pressure on the Greeks to either accept totally outrageous levels of austerity, coupled with interest rates for long-term loans that have just reached 25.91%?....How can we find out how much money has been bet on Greek default? Well, you can access data at the DTCC website - the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation. Have a look at their Table 6 that gives CDS data for the top 1000 Reference Entities. You can even download the whole lot as an excel file. They actually provide details about transactions every week. Amazingly up front, when you think about it. For the week ending 3rd February 2012, the total Gross Notional amount outstanding was $14,862,048,912,869 - roughly $14.8 trillion. You can find the amounts for all 1000 entities, one of which is the "HELLENIC REPUBLIC" for which the value is $69,382,164,345 ($69 billion), based on a total of 4,183 contracts. So, I'm not quite sure how to interpret these numbers, but it looks that there are maybe over 4000 people/hedge funds that are looking forward to cashing in their checks for $69 billion if they could get the Greeks to blink in this very dangerous game of poker that is being played on the world stage…..And who will be paying the $69 billion? Anyone like to guess that the banks that have been taken on the bets will need taxpayers to pick up the bill?



Europe is broke.They all need massive amounts of money to keep functioning at all.
The Europe's fiscal pact is not worth the paper is is written on, because everybody will do what they think is good for them. ---- Threfore the whole thing is a FARCE.
Germany provided some liquidity/1 trillion/ so they think it is all done and settled and reforms due in Spain and Italy meanwhile/NOT/ : I wonder what palnet the Germans live on?
Can anyone remember how many times Chelly and the rest of the Euro-clowns insisted that Iceland was going to join the Euro, was applying to join the Euro, would imminently join the Euro, and on and on....Spain is already planning to breach its budgetary targets, defying European leaders on the day they signed their historic fiscal pact.. Mariano Rajoy, prime minister of Spain, said the budget deficit would be 5.8pc of GDP in 2012 - more than 30pc higher than the 4.4pc target agreed by Brussels. In a move that was heralded in Spain as defiance against the German-led austerity drive, Mr Rajoy said he had decided to set a new target rather than extract €44bn (£36.6bn) from the budget at a time of economic crisis. Mr Rajoy said it was now a "sensible and reasonable" target. "This is a sovereign decision made by Spaniards," he said. It was one of their proudest predictions, and like all Euro-clown predictions, prediction was the point. There didn't need to be a fact, having a prediction was enough. A fact only happens once, but a prediction is a day after day thing....And the message was simple. In a crisis, the Euro will save you....oh yeaaaah...!!!!

Monday 5 March: Euro-zone February services PMI data. Tuesday 6 March: Revised EU fourth-quarter GDP growth data. Wednesday 7 March: German bond auction. Thursday 8 March: Bank of England interest rate decision. European Central Bank interest rate decision and press conference. German January industrial production data. Last day for banks to sign up in Greek PSI offer. Friday 9 March: Euro-zone finance ministers may hold conference call to sign off on Greek bailout. Monday 12 March: Euro-zone finance ministers meet. Greece aims to complete PSI by this date. Tuesday 13 March: German March ZEW economic sentiment indicator. Italian and Greek T-bill auctions. International Monetary Fund board likely to discuss participation in Greek bailout. Tuesday 20 March: EUR14.4 billion of Greek government bonds mature. Spanish and Greek T-bill auctions. Euro-zone finance ministers expected to hold talks on the region's bailout funds.


6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Good old Europe. It never changes. Angela Merkel would do well to remind herself of another German Chancellor who thought his Reich would would last for 1,000 years.

Anonymous said...

Twenty five countries have signed up to the fiscal pact, this will bring stability to the Euro so trumpeted Oli (another fine mess) Rehn trumpeted this morning, before the inks dry on the paper that's not worth the words written on it Spain has broken the rules. Farce comes nowhere near describing it.

Anonymous said...

Of course if their deficit target is now almost 6%, the reality will turn out to be 8 or 9%.

This is possible only because the ECB has given the banks a trillion euros of free money which they are now "investing" in worthless sovereign bonds.

I wonder how Merkel feels now her marvellous, last for ever, fiscal pact is being immediately undermined by the unelected Draghi at the ECB, with the ultimate costs flowing on to German taxpayers

Anonymous said...

You now all have to convince your parliaments and voters that this treaty is an important step to bring the euro, durably, back to safe waters."<<

You couldn't get it accepted for a Monty Python sketch!

Wasn't the Euro just a short while ago the best thing since sliced bread? A safe haven in a storm?

And now it "has to be brought back to safe waters". With more of the same medicine that's been part of the disease in the first place.

What are these people on? Because I want some too.

Anonymous said...

I'm afraid the EU and it's bloody politicians are becoming more farcical than an episode of Eastenders. Do these arseholes really think they can pull the wool over our eyes when it's bleeding obvious that this political experiment has failed miserably. How much more taxpayers' money is to be wasted by these sods before their inflated egos let them admit that this suffocating ideology is devastating the lives of millions.

Anonymous said...

Eurogroup chief Jean-Claude Juncker said Greece had taken all the legal action necessary to get the 130bn euro (£110bn; $175bn) bailout.

But the bailout must await the debt swap with private bondholders on 8 March, he said.

EU leaders are meeting in Brussels again to discuss the debt crisis.

As the summit got under way UK Prime Minister David Cameron complained that ideas to stimulate economic growth, which he set out recently in a joint letter with 11 other EU leaders, had been ignored.

Mr Cameron said the summit's draft conclusions ought to reflect the letter's call for swift action to lift regulatory burdens and expand the EU's single market.

Intensive negotiations over the Greek debt mountain dominated the run-up to the summit.