A miracle:----95pc of Greek bondholders accept deal allowing a purely "voluntary" restructuring to go ahead --- Athens is desperate to secure a "voluntary" agreement from bondholders - crucial to protecting its word and reputation in international markets, as well as avoiding a dreaded "disorderly" default. Both the hurdle and the deal - creditors are being asked to swap their bonds for new ones worth around a third of the value - are tough. The International Institute of Finance (IIF), the body that has negotiated with the Greek government on behalf of bondholders, said its members "intend to participate" in the deal. The group released several tallies on Wednesday - in the latest of which they said they spoke for bonds "amounting in aggregate to €84bn, or 40.8pc of the €206bn total PSI eligible debt". A raft of international banks have announced their intention to accept the deal, too. But we already know some are voting against. Let's have a stab at it. I think I had a go at this once before. There is surely the risk of a systemic bank run unfolding across the European continent if Greece is "allowed" to leave the Euro? As soon as people realise that if Greece can leave the euro, then why not Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy, at which point the value of the euro collapses. The euro becomes infungible overnight. Clearly, anybody at all holding euros in any of those countries would want out as their holdings would potentially be on a trajectory towards a massively devalued currency (the new escudo, the new punt or whatever). A bank run is one thing of course; a systemic bank run is uncharted territory, I assume. If you then throw in all of the euro commercial contractual arrangements threatened by the extinction of the contractual currency itself and you have the mother-of-all catastrophes on your hands. People tend not to behave rationally if they perceive that events are likely to get seriously out of hand imminently. Of course, "allowing" Greece to leave the euro might not have any or all of these unintended consequences, but will Europe's politico-banking mafia take the chance? I don't know. What I do know is that if Greece leaves the euro, Europe is stuffed; and if Greece stays in the euro, Europe is stuffed. This is what happens when politicians and bureaucrats convince themselves that economic fundamentals don't matter when driving through a grand political dream (or nightmare in the case of the EU) without popular awareness and understanding, and democratic consent. Economics always wins in the end because economics describes how people live their lives. Politicians merely fantasize for their own ends, and the apparatchiks feed off them like parasites; the EU in a nutshell.So who's swapping their bonds and who isn't? .... According to Bloomberg (writing before the latest PCIC statement was released), investors with 58pc of the Greek bonds eligible for the debt swap have so far indicated they'll participate. AP suggests the figure is closer to 48pc, while one Greek website has calculated a participation rate of 76pc. The 32 financial institutions that have signed up to the debt swap aren't necessarily the only ones participating (so far). Other investors that are not affiliated with the IIF committee on Greece may have tendered their bonds privately. I've just had a chat with Nick Matthews, senior European economist at RBS who says "the situation is too liquid" to say whose sums are correct. Investors have until 8pm tomorrow to decide whether to accept the bond swap deal. This will be followed by a conference call held by the Eurogroup of finance ministers at 1pm on Friday. The two banks added are Landesbank Baden-Wurttemberg and the Bank of Cyprus, which issued a separate statement earlier. In case you're wondering why Credit Foncier has disappeared off the original list, it's not because they've changed their mind - the name now appears as parent group BPCE.
Here is the updated list of financial institutions: Ageas, Allianz, Alpha Bank, AXA, Banque Postale, Bank of Cyprus, BBVA, BNP Paribas, BPCE, CNP Assurances, Commerzbank, Credit Agricole, DekaBank, Deutsche Bank, Dexia,, Emporiki Bank of Greece, Eurobank EFG, Generali, Greylock Capital Management, Groupama, HSBC, ING, Intesa San Paolo, KBC, Landesbank Baden-Wurttemberg, Marfin Popular Bank, Metlife, National Bank of Greece, Piraeus Bank, Royal Bank of Scotland, Societe Generale, Unicredit.
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The Royal Bank of Scotland, Barclays and HSBC joined 30 European banks and institutions in declaring their acceptance of the deal - but the tally was still far short of the 95pc needed to avoid being officially declared in default.
The International Institute of Finance (IIF), the body that has negotiated with the Greek government on behalf of bondholders, put out several announcements on Wednesday, counting the proportion of the vote as it inched up. The latest statement said bondholders “amounting in aggregate to €84bn, or 40.8pc of the €206bn total eligible debt” would support the deal.
The regular updates coincided with provocative comments from Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, who said he had discussed with Greece’s finance minister Evangelos Venizelos whether it would be better for the country to leave the euro.
Speaking at the European University Institute in Italy, Mr Schaeuble said he had discussed the issue “very openly” with Mr Venizelos.
“Maybe you could say it was the wrong decision for Greece to join the common European currency,” Mr Schaeuble said. “Greece has failed for a long time to deliver what is needed to be in a common currency.”
The 'creditors' will do whatever the Khazar Mafia tells them to do, crisp.
The bankster crooks are cornered anyway. They have nothing but fake paper money and the rest of the world is starting to trade in currencies other than the $US.
Isn't India 'trading' ie buying Iranian oil for gold?
The signs are ominous. The currency cycle from fiat to 'real' money, eg gold and silver, is about to take off.
Who's gonna wanna buy a bond over the next few years when all they do is digitally create more debt-based fiat?
The people will choose pm's - the bankser khazar mafia are screwed. LOL.
Peace
Everyone ready for the domino effect?
Hope you've got pm's? If you haven't then perhaps you should.
Interesting times, indeed.
Good Luck
bs.....Alas Catherine, the money they waste and waste and waste would be better out of their hands.
Never since the history of the last days of the Roman Empire have so many criminals and fools been tolerated by whole countries.
It is time for this EU Wasteland Club to go - to Hell if Hell could afford them
Only 19% the proposed second bail fur for Greece would actually make it into Greek hands. 81% is to be targeted towards repaying euroland banks who had extended Greece money in the past.
I hope Greece defaults. It's better for the Greeks in the medium and long terms, and euroland needs to be shaken to its core - as it needs to be exposed for the world to see it for the fraud it really is, once and for all. No more lies.
the moment it is necessary to bail-out Spain, blatantly, and in the open as in the case of Greece, then we are in the final stage of the euro collapse.
As the Fed will try and shore it up with more debt-based FRN's - as they have been doing - and as the world starts to trade without the $US, the $US will hyperinflate.
Like I said above - interesting times.
Probably a euro collapse and $US hyperinflation.
Are you ready?
The International Swaps & Derivatives Association (ISDA), which determines if credit default insurance should be paid, is expected to reconvene if CACs are used.
Greece’s debt management agency has warned it “does not contemplate the availability of funds” to pay investors who refuse to vote for the deal. Even so, several Greek pension funds said they would not approve the debt swap.
Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, said she was confident of a deal. Jan Kees de Jager, the Dutch finance minister, refused to call it. Analysts said markets were expecting a default. After Tuesday’s sell-off, European markets closed mostly flat on the day.
BNP Paribas’ Jean Lemierre said a Greek default would result in poverty in Greece and would be “extremely dangerous” for the rest of the eurozone. But Simon Denham of Capital Spreads argued that traders were prepared for the “worst case scenario” and the “creditors of Greece would rather see a substantial writedown of their assets in exchange for other interest bearing bonds as opposed to losing the whole lot”, he said
THOSE WHO WILL ACCEPT THE OFFER
• Banks and other investors that say they will commit to the offer hold over €110bn out of a total €206bn of Greek bonds in private hands. For the deal to progress, Athens needs to secure at least a 50pc response rate from its creditors and for two-thirds of those to accept the deal.
• A total of 30 companies, who are members of bank lobby, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), which negotiated on their behalf said they will accept the offer. They hold about €81bn of Greek debt.
• As least two other Greek banks holding about €10bn worth of bonds will participate.
• Greek social security funds and other state organisations - holding about €22bn of the bonds, most managed by the country's central bank -- have signed up.
The bond swap acceptance figures will be known by Greece by 20:00 tonight. If it's too little CAC may not even be a viable option to "encourage" the remainder.
Greece won't be announcing the results officially until Monday. Is this to give the markets the weekend to properly factor in and get used to the idea Greece will be in default?
Observers will have been able to estimate quite accurately by 20:00 tonight what the take up is and if it isn't sufficient, the markets will be in mayhem tomorrow!
Then it'll be on to Portugal next.
They won't announce the results till Monday to allow plenty of time for arm twisting, threats and book cooking to take place, this is Greece and the Euro Zone we are talking about here, the biggest bunch of thieves and liars ever assembled
After edging back above 5pc on Tuesday, Italian and Spanish borrowing costs have fallen today. Yields on 10 year Italian bonds are currently down 10 basis points at 4.811pc, while Spanish 10 year yields have fallen 8 basis points to 4.965pc.
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