I've been wondering about Norway; for many the model to emulate. Many of the numbers here come from Norsk Industris Konjunkturrapport 2012. It's an employers' association, so expect a center-right bias. I'd be delighted if a Norwegian were to comment.
Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund means the country has no insolvency problems. Unemployment is a low 3%. One out of three jobs is in the public sector. The Norwegian oil industry is expected to show a revenue growth of 15% next year, and is hiring. But Norway's traditional export sectors - industry and mining - will grow only 0 to 2%, and are firing people. And these traditional sectors employ about five times as many people as the oil sector.
There is a clear dichotomy in Norway's industry: on the one hand a booming oil sector which keeps the currency strong and wages high; and on the other hand an export-oriented industry which are suffering from the combined effect of the high kronor and high wages. Surprisingly enough, given the strong sense of crisis in Europe, Norwegian companies actually increased their exports to the EU in 2011 by 12%. Exports increased to all EU countries except the PIGS countries in the south. Norway is not whining demand is weak. Exports to the UK increased +6.2%. Exports to the US dropped -4.3%. These are data for the whole of 2011. 80% of Norwegian exports go to the EU, 2% to China. Being outside the EU, Norway is free to make its own free-trade agreements with China, but China is not interested. Negotiations broke off when Norway gave Liu Xiaobo the Nobel Prize back in 2010. Norway had its banking crisis, following a period of financial deregulation. Small banks began to fail in 1988. The crisis peaked in 1991, and ended in 1994, six years after it began. Just imagine the Guardian running a "Norwegian Banking Crisis Live Blog" six years on end.
What's my take on Norway?
What's my take on Norway?
There are two Norways. The oil industry is booming; the export-oriented industry is suffering. The kronor-euro exchange rate is causing discomfort for Norway's export industry. When a overvaluation of the Swiss franc threatened Swiss exports the Swiss National Bank intervened, and the Swiss franc has been at exactly 1.20 euro since. Of course, this means a large part of Swiss monetary policy is no longer determined in Bern, Switzerland but rather in Frankfurt, Germany. Nevertheless, pegging the franc to the euro is seen by many Swiss as a pragmatic solution. Norway's future may be Switzerland's past. We may see the Norwegian kronor pegged to the euro sooner than we think. Yes, such a move would be political suicide in the UK. So what?
5 comments:
Looks like the ranks closed in & Cameron cowardly caved in before the mutiny began, this will upset Clegg though the Lords reform & his vision are in tatters bit like his party. Question is Cameron won't sacrifice his power for Cleggs 'vision' of reformed Lords, where will this lead?!.
He said the Lords was ripe for reform. "It has got up to 900 people, there are still people there who are there because their ancestors were given a peerage decades ago."
In other words not those we can cherry pick to get elected for 15 years to push through our legislation.
Strange comment though from a man whose career was kick started due to a call from an incumbent of Buckingham Palace who could trace their ancestry back 900 years and use their power and influence to shoe horn him into the political arena?
think the worst argument is that "There is plenty going on at the moment, and Lords reform is low on the list of public priorities".
Well, that is just a cop-out. You could have used that excuse any time over the last 20 years. In politics there is always something going on, and Lords reform will never be top of the public's list of priorities.
This is not an excuse for inaction on the subject, our democracy should be an evolving project, not something which remains in some form of 18th Century stasis.
think the worst argument is that "There is plenty going on at the moment, and Lords reform is low on the list of public priorities".
Well, that is just a cop-out. You could have used that excuse any time over the last 20 years. In politics there is always something going on, and Lords reform will never be top of the public's list of priorities.
This is not an excuse for inaction on the subject, our democracy should be an evolving project, not something which remains in some form of 18th Century stasis.
59% in FAVOUR of reform eh?...that's actually only JUST slightly more than half...i actually have a fondness for The Lords...as it is...strange as it may sound (i AM mainly on the Left) i actually believe that the system we have is perhaps the LESSER of all the evils possible...of COURSE no system is perfect...but what puts me off a fully elected 2nd chamber is the example of the United States...and THEIR terribly un-democratic system...i am not fully sure how i feel, but what i DO think is that we have SO many MORE worthy subjects for reform in this country...i feel traumatised at the rate our public sector is being undermined and dismantled...and i can't help thinking that the Tories are secretly jubilant that so much focus has been placed on this legislation...which is just ONE MORE reason to hate the wretched Clegg....
Post a Comment