Thursday, December 13, 2012

In a statement issued just after the London markets closed, S&P warned there was a one-in-three chance that it would strip the UK of its cherished AAA status within the next two years. "We believe this could occur in particular as a result of a delayed and uneven economic recovery, or a weakening of political commitment to consolidation," it said. S&P did not call for the government to abandon its austerity plans, but it warned that the deficit-cutting strategy will continue to undermine growth. "We continue to believe that government's efforts over the next few years to engineer the planned correction in the UK's fiscal accounts will likely drag on economic growth." It added that belt-tightening by debt-burdened consumers and weak investment by anxious firms were likely to continue to depress demand. Ministers, including chief secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander, have played down the significance of a ratings cut in recent days; but the chancellor has pinned his political reputation on maintaining Britain's reputation as a "safe haven" for foreign investors. S&P's announcement came after Osborne was forced to announce in last week's autumn statement that economic growth has been far weaker than he hoped even in his March budget; and he now expects to flunk his self-imposed rule of cutting the public debt burden by 2015-16. S&P said its own calculations suggested the debt-to-GDP ratio, forecast by the independent Office for Budget Responsibility to peak just below 80% of GDP, could actually hit 100% of GDP - on its own definition - if the economic recovery continues to disappoint. Standard & Poor's rating agency announced it is downgrading Britain's economic outlook from stable to negative, hours after the chancellor defended his Autumn Statement before MPs. The ratings agency said it placed a negative outlook on the British economy to reflect its view that it could lower the country's rating within two years if fiscal performance weakens beyond current expectations. It cited "a delayed and uneven economic recovery, or a weakening of political commitment to consolidation" as possible causes for a future downgrade. S&P warned "if economic growth recovers more slowly than we currently forecast, due to domestic factors or waning economic performance by the UK's main trading partners, such slow recovery could result in net general government debt approaching 100pc of GDP, by our calculations, from its current estimated level of 85pc of GDP in 2012". The downward revision came just hours after chancellor George Osborne, speaking before the House of Commons Treasury Select Committee, downplayed the importance of the UK's treasured top credit rating, describing it as just "one test" and not the key symbol of an economy's strength. “It’s one test alongside others and the ultimate test is what you can borrow money at,” said Mr Osborne.

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