Sunday, February 3, 2013

"Citigroup said it now expects Spain's economy to contract by 2.2pc this year and another 2pc in 2014, pushing unemployment to 28pc.The effects of the slump will overpower any gains from fiscal austerity. The bank said public debt will surge from 88pc to 110pc of GDP in just two years." "Premier Mariano Rajoy has so far resisted a full rescue from the EU bail-out fund (ESM), fearing a political backlash and loss of sovereignty. Yet the ECB cannot purchase Spanish debt until Madrid pulls the trigger and signs a "memorandum"." "Julian Callow from Barclays said the ECB’s Mario Draghi is “itching” to buy Club Med bonds, seeing this as a way of targeting monetary stimulus on the countries in trouble - without an causing inflationary spillover in Germany - but he is paralyses until Madrid relents." Ah, when it all collapses the EU socializes private debt and gets to appoint another country's leader. Now I see what the strategy is. Meanwhile, Ireland has now a debt to GDP ratio of 120% and rising are now predictably making noises such as, forgive us our debt or else the best boy in the class is going native! Put "precautionary" loans in place as we will not be able to exit the bailout without a second bailout i.e. "precautionary loans" or if you prefer a "bailout extension" call it what you like, just make sure the money is there for us! The government are back in talks to extend their sweet heart deal Croke Park deal with the 23 public sector unions that represent government workers, so no surprises. They will be requiring additional funding to finance the Labor trade union government nexus. Labor are in coalition. As for Spain they will get their bailout from the ESM with a vicious MOU attached. They will underestimate (deliberately) how much they require, the further austerity will cause even greater unemployment and they will be on the road to Greece and the EU will be on the road to either break up or an admission that democracy has been overthrown and that you cannot rule a democratic EU. The whole project has been derailed because it was never possible to unite countries of such diverse cultures and work ethics. France wants to be socialist, therefore it needs Germany which is capitalist to pay up! Greece does not collect taxes so it wants them collected elsewhere and passed on to them otherwise they might have to pull out and it might be a systemic risk, Cyprus needs a bailout they too could be "systemic" and what about all that Russian money? Sure Russia might give a dig out? It is a tower of Babel ... I wonder whether most people in more stable Northern European countries realize just what exposure they are going to have to these bailouts via the ESM (for that is what the EU are now touting as the Spanish rescue vehicle)The ESM can make a capital call any time it likes on it's EZ members at 7 days notice and it's officers are immune from prosecution in any EU jurisdiction.. and it's records inviolable. So all those EZ member states that thought they were relatively safe are going to end up providing whatever funds a bunch of people with no accountability whatsoever demand of them. Budgetary independence and fiscal prudence gone in a flash and they never even noticed....Well, the next round of protests/riots ought to be interesting. Maybe Draghi, LaGarde, Merkel, Barroso, Van Rumpy and Rajoy could sit down with the hungry masses to explain how the worst is behind them.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Investors are once again being spooked by political uncertainty from both Spain and Italy as both countries deal with local political difficulties that could derail ongoing and future reform programs.

While markets appear able to shrug off bad economic data, as Spain January unemployment jumps 132k, it is politics once again that has markets worried as Spanish PM Rajoy deals with a corruption scandal over illegal cash payments that could have the potential to seriously damage his government.

Even in Italy the calm waters of recent weeks have hit stormy seas as the general election campaign starts to see a rise in support for Berlusconi which has increased the risks of political deadlock post-election rising here as well.