Access Investments-European Union- ROMANIA

A British exit from the EU would send fateful signals around the world, in the US and the far east, of an inward-looking Europe mired in fragmentation, provincialism and bickering. While Merkel and senior cabinet members such asWolfgang Schäuble, the finance minister, favour renegotiating the Lisbon treaty to push through big political and economic policy shifts in the eurozone, Berlin acknowledges that this is a tall order because of the resistance in many other countries, mainly but not only France. Cameron argues the single currency crisis has changed the EU, and is transforming the eurozone into a much more integrated core Europe, changing Britain's status, and wants the treaty renegotiated to reflect this fundamental shift. But senior officials in Brussels warn that any moves to substantially rewrite the Lisbon treaty would trigger a referendum domino effect, with not only Britain, but Ireland, parts of Scandinavia, perhaps the Netherlands and then France needing to stage referendums on a new deal. The leading government figures in Berlin acknowledged that Hollande was opposed. The damage to Hollande could be twofold. The treaty changes would inevitably entail transfers of fiscal and economic policymaking powers to Brussels, something Paris opposes, then possibly a national vote on the new deal in an increasingly Eurosceptic country, according to recent opinion polls. Hollande played a prominent role in the yes campaign for the French referendum on an EU constitution in 2005 and lost. A repeat of the failure could cost him his office. The differences between Berlin and Paris are reinforcing their estrangement, with no improvement expected until the dust settles after the German elections in September when Merkel is bidding for a third term. Berlin is also worried that France, Italy, and Spain are stuck in a vicious downward cycle of growing unemployment, austerity, and relative lack of meaningful reform. The Germans are relaxing the austerity that has been the principal response to the sovereign debt crisis of the past three years, but are demanding sweeping structural reforms in return in the form of labour law and labour market changes, longer working weeks, pension and social security reforms. Berlin is prepared to give France and Spain an extra two years to reach budget deficit targets under the euro rulebook, but is insisting that the two years not be wasted in policy paralysis.