In Italy - The Bank of Italy says it expects Italy's economy to
shrink 1.9pc. That is significantly down from its previous
estimate of a 1pc contraction. However, it did say growth would return next
year and it expects that economy to grow by 0.7pc in 2014. There are
downside risks around the recovery in activity between the end of 2013 and the
beginning of 2014, linked mainly to prospects for the global economy, liquidity
conditions for companies and credit supply. It added that
improvement in the economy depended on "the full and efficient implementation of
economic policy measures" and said the recovery could be at risk if a loss of
investor confidence led to a rise in Italy's borrowing costs. The central bank
also said there was little prospect of an improvement in Italy's
unemployment rate, which it said would rise from some 12pc in 2013 to
nearly 13pc next year, with no improvement until the second half of 2014.
In Greece - the vote in the Greek
parliament is expected to be close. MPs will vote on
more than 100 articles contained in a multi-bill of reforms that paves
the way for sackings and job transfers in the civil service. Prime Minister
Antonis Samaras and Deputy Prime Minister
Evangelos Venizelos met yesterday to discuss
the mood in their respective parties, New Democracy and PASOK. The coalition
has 155 MPs, giving it a slim majority in the 300-seat Parliament but there was
relative confidence among government officials that any defections would be kept
to a minimum. However, it would seem that the government is more concerned
about keeping the country's 325 mayors happy, as ekathimerini.com
reports. The government appears more concerned about the long-term
impact of alienating the country’s 325 mayors, especially since local elections
are due next year. Mayors have expressed opposition to a range of reforms,
particularly the fact that many local authority workers will be among the 25,000
civil servants to be placed in a job transfer scheme by the end of the year.
The government conceded some ground on Tuesday by agreeing not to move
municipal police officers or school caretakers if they had postgraduate degrees.
More importantly, though, the coalition decided to withdraw a provision that
would have led to mayors facing disciplinary action for not keeping within their
budgets. It also backed down on the powers that an observatory set up to monitor
municipal finances would have. The watchdog will not have the right to
intervene in the drawing up of municipal budgets, as had previously been
planned.
1 comment:
And news from Germany is that Deutsche Bank intends to shrink its balance sheet by a fifth. Another sign that financial deleverage is stil in full deflationary force.
And at time virtually every country in the Eurozone is in recession or flirting with it, what is the ECB doing. Mopping up 'excess' liquidity by letting LTRO mature. Shrinking the base money supply. Theoretically the ECB is committed to an 'expansionary' monetary policy. Asmussen has stated rates will stay low and the ECB is 'technically ready' to let the deposit rate go negative. But what impact are very low interest rates going to have if banks are committed to shrinking their balance sheets so their equity gearing rises above 3%. In the US they realises that low interest rates wouldn't work as long as the banks were under apitalised. The 'broken string'. But it still doesn't seem to have seeped in to the minds of Europe's central bankers.
May be all that excess liquidity isn't doing uch good but may be they should have considered an 'operation twist' and provide a lot more longer term lending.
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