Monday, July 22, 2013

In Italy - The Bank of Italy says it expects Italy's economy to shrink 1.9pc. That is significantly down from its previous estimate of a 1pc contraction.   However, it did say growth would return next year and it expects that economy to grow by 0.7pc in 2014.   There are downside risks around the recovery in activity between the end of 2013 and the beginning of 2014, linked mainly to prospects for the global economy, liquidity conditions for companies and credit supply.   It added that improvement in the economy depended on "the full and efficient implementation of economic policy measures" and said the recovery could be at risk if a loss of investor confidence led to a rise in Italy's borrowing costs.   The central bank also said there was little prospect of an improvement in Italy's unemployment rate, which it said would rise from some 12pc in 2013 to nearly 13pc next year, with no improvement until the second half of 2014.
In Greece - the vote in the Greek parliament is expected to be close.   MPs will vote on more than 100 articles contained in a multi-bill of reforms that paves the way for sackings and job transfers in the civil service.   Prime Minister Antonis Samaras and Deputy Prime Minister Evangelos Venizelos met yesterday to discuss the mood in their respective parties, New Democracy and PASOK.   The coalition has 155 MPs, giving it a slim majority in the 300-seat Parliament but there was relative confidence among government officials that any defections would be kept to a minimum.  However, it would seem that the government is more concerned about keeping the country's 325 mayors happy, as ekathimerini.com reports. The government appears more concerned about the long-term impact of alienating the country’s 325 mayors, especially since local elections are due next year. Mayors have expressed opposition to a range of reforms, particularly the fact that many local authority workers will be among the 25,000 civil servants to be placed in a job transfer scheme by the end of the year.   The government conceded some ground on Tuesday by agreeing not to move municipal police officers or school caretakers if they had postgraduate degrees. More importantly, though, the coalition decided to withdraw a provision that would have led to mayors facing disciplinary action for not keeping within their budgets. It also backed down on the powers that an observatory set up to monitor municipal finances would have.    The watchdog will not have the right to intervene in the drawing up of municipal budgets, as had previously been planned.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

And news from Germany is that Deutsche Bank intends to shrink its balance sheet by a fifth. Another sign that financial deleverage is stil in full deflationary force.

And at time virtually every country in the Eurozone is in recession or flirting with it, what is the ECB doing. Mopping up 'excess' liquidity by letting LTRO mature. Shrinking the base money supply. Theoretically the ECB is committed to an 'expansionary' monetary policy. Asmussen has stated rates will stay low and the ECB is 'technically ready' to let the deposit rate go negative. But what impact are very low interest rates going to have if banks are committed to shrinking their balance sheets so their equity gearing rises above 3%. In the US they realises that low interest rates wouldn't work as long as the banks were under apitalised. The 'broken string'. But it still doesn't seem to have seeped in to the minds of Europe's central bankers.

May be all that excess liquidity isn't doing uch good but may be they should have considered an 'operation twist' and provide a lot more longer term lending.