Since the last crisis, central banks around the world have pumped trillions into
the economic cycle, both by lowering interest rates and buying up securities in
the markets. For central bankers like United States Federal Reserve Chairman Ben
Bernanke, the aim of the policy was to stimulate the economy and rescue banks
that could no longer raise capital elsewhere. But this "grand monetary
experiment," as Spitznagel calls it, has side effects. Because it makes
borrowing cheaper than even before and saving all but pointless, it encourages
investors to pursue reckless deals. Share prices are exploding on stock
exchanges around the world, while real estate prices are rising at an alarmingly
fast pace. And many US companies are now in as much debt as they were before the
financial crisis. To take Spitznagel's metaphor a step further, the flood of
money coming from central bankers acts like a highly aggressive, artificial
fertilizer. It generates enormous yields in the short term, but eventually leads
to potential devastation. For this reason, the ongoing party in the stock and
real estate markets is beginning to feel uncanny to a growing number of
observers. "It might go badly," Nobel laureate Robert Shiller told SPIEGEL. Some
economists are even convinced that the question is no longer whether the next
crash is coming, but when. For brokers on the venerable trading floor at the
New York Stock Exchange, such predictions are hugely exaggerated. "This is not a
bubble," says Peter Tuchman, who has worked on Wall Street for almost 30 years
and, with his white, Einstein-like hairstyle, half a dozen bracelets and
well-worn running shoes, is a legend on the floor. He taps his smartphone a few
times and pulls up a graph depicting the S&P 500 index of stock prices for
500 large companies, which has gone up by 166 percent since it hit rock-bottom
in 2009. "This is a stable development," says Tuchman, pointing to the graph,
which is directed uniformly upward. In his view, these are simply good times
following on the heels of years of crisis. "There are new company listings every
day," he says. "That is a good sign to me."
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