They are meant to be the powerhouses of Europe, but the latest
figures show that the “core” economies of France and Germany are faltering while
growth in the rest of the eurozone is at its strongest since pre-recession
levels.
France’s economy was hit by a steep downturn, and in Germany the pace of
expansion was at its weakest in eight months, according to a flash reading of
most recent Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report by Markit.
Across “peripheral” Europe - including the countries that were hit the
hardest by the global financial crisis - output accelerated and growth is at the
strongest since August 2007.
Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, said that these divergent trends between the “core” and “peripheral” countries of Europe were a “big concern”.
He said: “Although the survey suggests the eurozone as a whole should grow by
at least 0.4pc in the second quarter, France appears to be entering a renewed
downturn after GDP stagnated in the first quarter.
“Germany meanwhile looks set to grow by 0.7pc or more in the second quarter,
albeit with signs that the upturn is starting to lose momentum again.
“It is the rest of the region, outside of France and Germany, which – as a
whole – is seeing the strongest growth momentum at the moment, highlighting how
the ‘periphery’ is recovering.”
The PMI report showed that in France, business contracted for the second
month running ad suffered the steepest downturn with headcounts cut at the
fastest rate since February.
Despite the slow increases that were recorded in both the manufacturing and
service sectors in Germany, the latter remained optimistic about prospects for
output growth in the year ahead, with positivity hitting a three year high.
Elsewhere across the eurozone, new orders showed the largest increase since
July 2007.
Aengus Collins, Europe analyst at The Economist Intelligence Unit, said that
the PMI figures for France “paint a picture of an economy in trouble”.
He said: “France is a particular worry, slumping to a reading of 48. Real GDP
stagnated in the first quarter - propped up by government spending - and a host
of indicators point to continuing weakness in the private sector.
“There is now a real prospect that the economy contracted in the second
quarter, and that a return to solid growth remains some distance off.”
Eimar Daly, head of market analysis at Monex Europe, said that the PMI report
showed that weakness in the Eurozone was “mainly isolated in France”.
She said: “The most optimistic point of the recovery was the continued
resurgence of the periphery.
“This underlines that the periphery is catching up with the core and the
dangerous precedent of a two tier Eurozone, a sluggish periphery heavily
indebted to the robust core, is changing.”
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