Monday, July 13, 2015

Any currency's value only reflects how it is perceived.  That credibility to state:   ''The Bank promises to pay the bearer on demand the sum of''.  Immaterial whether you call your currency a Euro, Drachma or a Turnip-Pie.  'Tis the degree of credibility that sustains its value not the name.  Greeks to be taken seriously must deliver that credibility to the markets and as such, not be viewed as mish-mash of political influences devoid of ''FOCUS''.  Can it do that .... Not easy .... But 'Yes' it can.  But it must be seen as adopting credibility as opposed to hoping something of the  Mr Micawber politics: albeit ''something will turn-up'' .... Because, one way or the other it certainly will?  Thus delivered: then it may well be the EU and the Euro that come under that FOCUS, if not already?  Greece might engage in this very activity - continuing to print Euros, while ceasing to take orders from the European Central Bank.  Nice idea excepting member state's central banks are not allowed willy nilly to churn out Euro paper currency.  Which is, of course, one of the two core flaws of the Euro mechanism. Any nation state operating a fiat monetary system has two essential levers to try and adjust their monetary economy: base rates and money supply. Excepting, of course with the Euro this is "Managed" centrally by the ECB; leaving only local taxation and sovereign borrowing for member governments, which is clearly not sufficient.  Trying to meld hugely disparate states into a One Size Fits All, monetary system simply doesn't and could not ever work: unless, of course, the successful Euro members are happy for their taxpayers to fund the cost of shipping buckets of capital to the impoverished - in relative terms - member states.  Seems now, as I forecast years back, the German taxpayers are simply no longer prepared to accept higher taxes and a reduced standard of living simply to prop up the basket cases.

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