Thursday, September 10, 2015

I can't help thinking that the whole sell off (in China) was sparked by the authorities' currency devaluation. Although outside share ownership is limited it is still significant enough if they all act in concert and sell up fearing that the values of their holdings is going to drop in (say) USD terms. A bunch of them headed for €, $ or £ climes and started the snowball rolling.  Long-term low interest rates and QE (because interest rates couldn't be lowered further) has left the West's economies so weak that even a slight breeze from the East is enough to shake them. A wind from the East would blow them away.  Let it only be pointed out that the 173,000 new jobs just reported in the US was totally eclipsed by the whopping 293,000 workers who "dropped out" of the labor force. 94 million people are now "out of the workforce" in the US, signalling record low participation rates. Almost 15 million joined that category since peak employment in 2007, while 4 million jobs were created.  That's why unemployment is "so low"... fewer workers, lower unemployment creates... that's the stuff liberals like Krugman celebrate...most key indicators follow these dismal results that are swept under the rug.  US output is only slightly better than it was almost eight years ago and is now faltering as inventories are piling up and Liar's loans in the automotive industry have peaked.  As for China, Roubini seems to ignore the other Chinese bubble in housing. And the fact that the Chinese equities markets are not in free fall because the authorities in Beijing is willing to suppress any selling trends.  There is a way out for China, but in part, it means the political class has to take a long haircut. The Party bosses won't do this, so slow downward drift can be expected, especially as global customer demand tanks as well.

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