Showing posts with label New. Show all posts
Showing posts with label New. Show all posts

Friday, October 9, 2015

Russia - "Experts estimate that some 400,000 to 500,000 citizens could apply for bankruptcy,".  So Putin is like Great Britain in the Suez Crisis, his economy is falling and when more sanctions hit he will have to make a choice. Plus new travel bans and his financial empire (purchased by Russian Taxpayers) exposed. The Oil prices is falling and set to remain low. His population is falling and people leaving Russian for their Human Rights. The cost of running a foreign war will hit the Soviet budget.  Russia like Britain is no longer an Empire, get over it Mr. Putin. Russia has previously allowed companies to declare themselves bankrupt but not individuals.
Russian banks encouraged people to take out loans and mortgages during the boom years of high oil prices and many are now struggling to make the repayments, particularly those who took out loans denominated in foreign currency before the ruble plummeted last year on the back of low oil prices and Western sanctions over the Ukraine crisis. Some experts have questioned how many will actually be able to do so, due to the relatively high cost of the procedure. Banks, however, fear that a large number of lenders will use the law to avoid paying back loans, with the number of delayed payments already soaring over the past year. "I receive many such letters [on the issue] and behind each is a personal tragedy," said the deputy president of Russia's central bank, Vasily Pozdyshev. "Experts estimate that some 400,000 to 500,000 citizens could apply for bankruptcy," Mr Pozdyshev said. "The law is entering force at an inconvenient moment," wrote Vedomosti business daily. "Debts on consumer loans today total six trillion rubles, while mortgage debts total three trillion rubles."  "Formally, just under 600,000 Russians fall under the terms of the law."

Monday, September 21, 2015

“The real pr0blem Despite the incessant jawboning to the contrary by Fed and central bank mouthpieces - who under an honest system would be charged with currency manipulation - there is zero possibility of a rate rise. You can't taper a Ponzi scheme, and central bankers are not about to give up their most effective tools for asset-stripping the 99% and transferring their wealth to the .1% in the financial sector. The City of London and Wall Street must keep luring in new suckers and new money, and since the supply of Greater Fools is running out and the retail investor herd is starting to get spooked, the Fed has no option but to maintain ZIRP. Moreover, it will need to print new trillions in QE4/helicopter money and shower them on its TBTF banker cohorts to keep the Ponzi levitated long enough to lure in the last of the retail bag-holders before the pump & dump. So on Thursday Yellen will announce continued ZIRP and foreshadow a new round of "stimulus." No other outcome is possible. The con game is becoming more brazen even as people are finally waking up and rejecting the crony capitalist status quo, as seen by the meteoric rise of anti-establishment political contenders in the US and UK. problem isn’t what the Fed may do, but the ultimately unavoidable consequences of what the Fed has already done. The cost of reckless Fed-induced yield seeking will likely be felt first in the financial markets as  previous paper gains evaporate, while defaults on excessive low-quality covenant-lite credit will emerge over the course of the economic cycle, and the  impact of investment will be to limit productivity and economic growth over the longer run. This is all rather inevitable except in the eyes of those who haven’t watched and memorized a dozen adaptations of the same movie…my view is that activist Fed policy is both ineffective and reckless (and the historical data bears this out), and that the Federal Reserve has pushed the financial markets to a precipice from which no gentle retreat is ultimately likely. Similar precipices, such as 1929 and 2000, and even lesser precipices like 1906, 1937, 1973 and 2007 have always had unfortunate endings... A quarter-point hike will not cause anything. The causes are already baked in the cake. A rate hike may
be a trigger with respect to timing, but that’s all. History suggests we should place our attention on valuations and market internals in any event.”

Thursday, September 10, 2015

I can't help thinking that the whole sell off (in China) was sparked by the authorities' currency devaluation. Although outside share ownership is limited it is still significant enough if they all act in concert and sell up fearing that the values of their holdings is going to drop in (say) USD terms. A bunch of them headed for €, $ or £ climes and started the snowball rolling.  Long-term low interest rates and QE (because interest rates couldn't be lowered further) has left the West's economies so weak that even a slight breeze from the East is enough to shake them. A wind from the East would blow them away.  Let it only be pointed out that the 173,000 new jobs just reported in the US was totally eclipsed by the whopping 293,000 workers who "dropped out" of the labor force. 94 million people are now "out of the workforce" in the US, signalling record low participation rates. Almost 15 million joined that category since peak employment in 2007, while 4 million jobs were created.  That's why unemployment is "so low"... fewer workers, lower unemployment creates... that's the stuff liberals like Krugman celebrate...most key indicators follow these dismal results that are swept under the rug.  US output is only slightly better than it was almost eight years ago and is now faltering as inventories are piling up and Liar's loans in the automotive industry have peaked.  As for China, Roubini seems to ignore the other Chinese bubble in housing. And the fact that the Chinese equities markets are not in free fall because the authorities in Beijing is willing to suppress any selling trends.  There is a way out for China, but in part, it means the political class has to take a long haircut. The Party bosses won't do this, so slow downward drift can be expected, especially as global customer demand tanks as well.