Monday, December 21, 2015

Even in recent weeks, Fed policymakers remained split over whether the economy is finally ready for higher rates. On the one hand, the unemployment rate has fallen sharply from 10% in 2009 and monthly job growth has averaged well over 200,000 the past two years, developments that led Fed Chair Janet Yellen to state that a rate increase was likely before the end of 2015. Still, many Americans continue to work part-time even though they prefer full-time jobs or have given up looking for work, though the ranks of such Americans have fallen. Partly as a result of this surplus labor supply, wage growth has only recently shown signs of accelerating beyond the tepid 2% annual pace that has prevailed throughout the recovery.  Broader inflation has been stuck well below the Fed's annual 2% target, both because of meager pay gains as well as low oil prices and a strong dollar that has kept imports cheap for U.S. consumers. The Fed reiterated Wednesday that it expects energy prices and the dollar to stabilize. In September, global economic troubles, which has combined with the rallying greenback to clobber exports, and related market turbulence stayed the Fed's hand.  Citing those forces and feeble inflation, Fed board members Daniel Tarullo and Lael Brainard were among those who have argued for caution, saying the risks of moving too soon and derailing a still-vulnerable recovery outweighed the hazards of waiting and possibly having to raise rates more rapidly to catch up to inflation.  Since October, though, the mood has shifted. China's economic troubles eased somewhat and failed to spread to other emerging markets, stock markets rallied, and U.S. job growth rebounded strongly in October and November from a late-summer slump. As result, momentum for a rate hike began building, both among some Fed policymakers and in financial markets.

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