Bucharest - the extremely optimistic estimate of the evolution of the economy in the next four years is not the only weak spot of the budget. Even if we overlook "transparency" easily, what about prudency? Hasn't the CNP learned anything, and more so our authorities, from the lesson of the crisis that began in 2008? Where does this optimism concerning the evolution of the economy over the next four years come from, when the global trade "landscape" is precisely in the process of undergoing a transformation following the victory of the Trump administration, and the problems of the EU are going through a new phase of worsening? The report also states that the "potential GDP will increase at an annual growth rate of 5.1%", whereas "the gap between the GDP and the potential GDP levels expressed as a percentage of the potential GDP will be closed in 2018". But don't we have the opinion of some NBR officials, that the output gap was closed as early as 2013 or Q2 2016? Aside from "faith", we must not forget that the methods for estimating the difference between the potential GDP and the real GDP are more or less mechanical, as they are heavily influenced by the growth of lending. Does the new government believe that we are back to the period of "growth" based on cheap loans and ultra-lax lending norms? It would seem so, because the report concerning the macroeconomic situation in the next years reflects an unrealistic approach of the evolution of borrowing costs. The governmental report also shows that "the yields of government bonds have followed a downward trend in the first three quarters of 2016, and then rise was mostly due to a number of foreign events". Unfortunately, we are not given a forecast of borrowing costs until 2020. Even though the president of the PSD has participated in the festivities for the instatement of the new president of the United States, the "expertise" he gained from that has not included the transparency provided by institutions such as the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) or Government Accountability Office (GAO), even though their forecasts are unrealistic as well.
Showing posts with label agenda de business. Show all posts
Showing posts with label agenda de business. Show all posts
Friday, January 27, 2017
NIS, subsidiară a Gazprom, începe
operaţiunile de foraj în perimetrele concesionate în vestul
României
Monday, January 23, 2017
Donald Trump is planning a new deal for Britain this week as Theresa May becomes the first foreign leader to meet him since the inauguration.
With hundreds of thousands of people across the world protesting his presidency, Mr Trump’s team was working with Number 10 to finalise plans for White House talks.
Mr Trump has even taken to calling Mrs May “my Maggie” in reference to the close Thatcher-Reagan relationship he wants to recreate, according to sources....
The historic trip comes as:
- A deal to reduce barriers between American and British banks through a new “passporting” system was being considered by Mr Trump’s team
- A US-UK “working group” was being prepared to identify barriers to trade and scope out a future trade deal
- A joint statement on defence was expected to demand EU countries spend 2 per cent of GDP on defence and promise collaboration in tackling Isil
More than 60 million people in this country are hopeful — they want Mr. Trump to work on behalf of them to restore jobs in their dilapidated towns, to improve the education for their children, to help unite this fractious Republic, by making the American dream obtainable to all Americans. They’ll dance at the balls this weekend, or toast champagne from within their homes. All are uncertain at what a Trump presidency may bring, but they are willing to give the man a chance. All but the mainstream media that is. Network heads and newspaper editors are filled with anxiety — yes, Mr. Trump’s supporters are jubilant, but the other half of this nation (including most within their own newsrooms) are devastated. And to them, that devastation is more powerful, more convincing. And thus, their coverage has reflected those fears, and none of the optimism.
In the centre of Trappes, in Paris’s western suburbs, a group of young men are handing out flyers urging locals to vote for Benoît Hamon. Neither the name nor the face is familiar in Britain, but that could well be about to change today.
“Vote for this man and you will see the real France,” says one, thrusting a leaflet into my hand. It sounds more like a threat than a promise, but this rather gritty Parisian banlieue – the subject of several billion euros’ worth of regeneration investment – is Hamon’s home ground. One of seven candidates in the first round of the Socialist party’s (PS) primary election to choose a presidential candidateon Sunday, Hamon, 49, was considered an outsider only a fortnight ago, but is fast gaining ground. To some, he is the French Bernie Sanders or Jeremy Corbyn – albeit a considerably younger version. Hamon’s anti-capitalist programme includes a “universal wage” (a form of basic income), work sharing, the use of referendums to decide policy and the legalisation of cannabis. It has been dismissed as utopian by centrist critics, but that will not worry Hamon overly. This is about the socialist movement showing that it can do populism and protectionism better than the far right. France’s Front National leader, Marine Le Pen, is profiting from dissatisfaction among working-class voters who feel abandoned by both the left and the right. Hamon, his Socialist primary rival Arnaud Montebourg, 54, and the hard left presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, 65, who is standing “outside the frame of political parties”, all argue that the Socialist party has abandoned the working class by shifting to the centre ground. This is embodied by Manuel Valls, the former prime minister and another primary contestant – who once reportedly suggested dropping the word “Socialist” from the party’s name.
Wednesday, January 18, 2017

And they did so with their eyes open: accepting that the road ahead will be uncertain at times, but believing that it leads towards a brighter future for their children - and their grandchildren too. And it is the job of this Government to deliver it. That means more than negotiating our new relationship with the EU. It means taking the opportunity of this great moment of national change to step back and ask ourselves what kind of country we want to be. My answer is clear. I want this United Kingdom to emerge from this period of change stronger, fairer, more united and more outward-looking than ever before. I want us to be a secure, prosperous, tolerant country - a magnet for international talent and a home to the pioneers and innovators who will shape the world ahead. I want us to be a truly Global Britain – the best friend and neighbour to our European partners, but a country that reaches beyond the borders of Europe too. A country that goes out into the world to build relationships with old friends and new allies alike.
Tuesday, January 17, 2017

Monday, January 16, 2017

The Chancellor admitted in an interview with a German magazine that the “UK we could suffer from economic damage at least in the short-term” if it is left with no access to the EU. But he suggested that Britain could cut taxes to encourage companies to move to the UK if it were shut out from trading with the EU...The Telegraph disclosed Mrs May is preparing to set out plans for a ‘clean’ Brexit’ when she delivers her major speech at Lancaster House on Tuesday. This would see the UK pulling out of the single market and the customs union in order to regain control of immigration and end the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. A government source told The Sunday Telegrpah: “She's gone for the full works. People will know when she said 'Brexit means Brexit', she really meant it.” The comments alarmed pro-Remain MPs. Former education secretary Nicky Morgan, who was sacked by Mrs May, said the Prime Minister should put "maximum participation" in the single market at the heart of her negotiating strategy and warned her not to do anything to damage the economy.
Saturday, January 14, 2017

Persoanele fizice care vor să-şi izoleze termic locuinţa vor putea cere de la stat o sumă nerambursabilă de până la 40.000 de lei, în cadrul programului „Casa verde Plus”, se arată într-un act normativ al Ministerului Mediului, Apelor şi Pădurilor (MMAP), ce a fost publicat ieri în Monitorul Oficial. Totuşi, pentru a putea beneficia efectiv de bani, cetăţenii trebuie să aştepte stabilirea sesiunii de înscriere. Regulile pentru participarea în programul denumit, pe scurt, „Casa verde Plus” sunt incluse în Ordinul MMAP nr. 2.425/2016 pentru aprobarea Ghidului de finanţare a Programului privind efectuarea de lucrări destinate eficienţei energetice, beneficiari persoane fizice. Acesta a fost publicat astăzi în Monitorul Oficial, Partea I, nr. 34 şi se aplică deja. Însă înscrierea cetăţenilor va fi posibilă abia după ce autorităţile vor stabili o perioadă anume în acest sens.
Prin intermediul programului „Casa verde Plus”, statul vrea să încurajeze folosirea materialelor izolatoare organic-naturale pentru a reduce consumul energetic al clădirilor, cu scopul de a îmbunătăţi calitatea mediului. Banii nerambursabili vor fi acordaţi persoanelor fizice atât pentru casele aflate în construire, cât şi pentru cele deja existente, însă, aşa cum reiese din actul normativ, numai dacă acestea au cel mult parter şi două etaje. Concret, persoanele fizice vor putea cere o sumă de până la 40.000 de lei (dar nu mai mult de 120 de lei pe metru pătrat izolat şi finisat), care va fi acordată sub forma unei prime de eficienţă energetică. „Finanţarea se acordă sub forma unei prime de eficienţă energetică în valoare de maximum 40.000 de lei, aferentă cheltuielilor eligibile, dar nu mai mult de 120 lei/mp izolat şi finisat, pentru izolarea locuinţelor aflate în faza de construcţie şi pentru izolarea locuinţelor existente”, scrie în ordinul recent publicat, citat de avocatnet.ro.
Thursday, January 12, 2017

Wednesday, January 11, 2017

Tuesday, January 10, 2017

“Higher borrowing costs could raise concerns about debt sustainability,” warned the IIF. “With the focus in 2017 likely to be on prospects for fiscal stimulus, already-high levels of mature market debt may act as a constraint.”. Borrowers in Britain have been working hard to pay down their debts, slashing the total debt to GDP ratio by 65 percentage points between 2011 and 2015. That is now in reverse, as the government keeps borrowing and banks stop deleveraging – in the first nine months of the year, debts rose by 15 percentage points to more than 465pc of GDP. Governments in emerging markets have increased their debt more slowly – debt to GDP increased by only two percentage points. Those nations could be particularly hit by higher interest rates in the US, however, as investors looking for yield in riskier markets may be tempted back to the States, as they were in the so-called taper tantrum of 2012. The biggest emerging market borrower in 2016 was China – it accounted for $710bn of the total $855bn of bond issuance from the governments.
The country’s households were also keen borrowers in the nine-month period. Individuals took on loans amounting to an additional 3pc of GDP, while overall emerging market household debt hit a new high of 35pc of GDP.
“This suggests that for some households, debt service capacity could be challenged in a rising interest rate environment,” the IIF warned.
“This suggests that for some households, debt service capacity could be challenged in a rising interest rate environment,” the IIF warned.
Monday, January 9, 2017

Sunday, January 8, 2017

Saturday, January 7, 2017

Friday, January 6, 2017

Wednesday, January 4, 2017

By the end of 2017 it will be clear that nothing has changed for the better. Powerful deflationary forces retain an invisible grip over the global economy. Bond yields will ratchet up further and then come clattering down again – ultimately driving 10-year US yields below zero before the decade is over. There are few ‘shovel ready’ projects for Trump’s infrastructure blitz. The headline figures are imaginary. His plan will be whittled down by Congress....The House will pass tax cuts for the rich but these are regressive, with a low fiscal multiplier. The choice of an anti-deficit Ayatollah to head the budget office implies swinging cuts to federal spending. These will hit the poor, with a high multiplier. This Gatsby mix is mostly self-defeating...
Friday, December 30, 2016

Sunday, December 25, 2016
...and of course by inference the EU. It will be until the next crisis hits 2 or 3 weeks down the road. This bailout will certainly help MPS in the short term, but it doesn`t offer any solution to the problems effecting larger financial institutions such as Unibanco. As A-EP points out the tapering of bond purchases by the ECB will lead to rising bond yields doesn't bode well for Italy and it`s banks...." The Italian state will be allowed to compensate some of 40,000 retail investors shunted into MPS bonds without understanding the risk, but these rebates will be partial, glacially-slow, and conducted on a means-tested basis. Fabio Fois and Giuseppe Maraffino from Barclays said the rescue falls short of a “systemic solution”, arguing that funding is too thin and the MPS model cannot easily be replicated. “We estimate that the largest six Italian banks could need about €30bn in total to clean-up their balance sheets,” they said. Some analysts think it could take €50bn, or more if the next global downturn hits early. If so, this risks another messy drama a year hence in even less hospitable circumstances."
Saturday, December 24, 2016

Friday, December 23, 2016
SIF Oltenia has announced that it has brought two lawsuits against Banca Comercială Română: "- a request to bring an action for annulment of the Decision of the Extraordinary General Meeting of BCR of November 23rd, 2016, which is the object of the case no. 45844/3/2016; - a request for intervention which is aimed at rejecting the request for authorization of the merger approved by the Extraordinary General Shareholder Meeting of BCR of November 23rd, 2016, which is the object of case no. 44243/3/2016 which will have the first hearing on January 17th, 2017. Defendants: BCR, BCR Real Estate Management SRL (REM) and Bucharest Financial Plazza SRL (BFP)". The merger between BCR, REM and BFP represents a necessary operational simplification, given the fact that BCR is a majority shareholder in both entities, as its holdings are near 100%, and the two companies conduct their commercial activities through BCR, according to bank officials, who gave us the following statement: "The activities of the two subsidiaries will be internalized, and the merger will have a significant contribution to simplifying the structure of the BCR group and corporate governance". Law no. 31/1990 of companies allows shareholders who did not vote in favor of a spinoff or merger decision to exit the company and to ask the company to buy their shares, in which case their shares will be evaluated by an independent evaluator. SIF Oltenia is the only one of the SIFs that has remained a shareholder of BCR, with a stake of 6.3%, after the other SIFs made their exit in 2011, following deals with Erste Bank, the majority shareholder of the bank. SIF Oltenia values its stake in BCR at 439.05 million lei, according to the report of September 30, 2016. In its 2016 strategy, SIF Oltenia has announced that it is still willing to negotiate with investors interested in its BCR stake, in order to get an attractive offer. "In the event such a negotiation is completed, we will summon the General Shareholder Meeting in order to put the deal up for approval - according to art. 241 (1) of the law 297/2004 - that stake exceeds 20% of the total assets, less receivables", SIF Oltenia wrote, and added: "We need to remind that BCR has ended 2015 very profitably, meaning that the chances of selling this stake in good circumstances have seen a good evolution". Bucharest Financial Plazza SRL owns the BCR building of Calea Victoriei (the former Bancorex headquarters). The office building has been inaugurated in 1997, is 83 high, has 18 floors and a surface of approximately 31,000 sqm.
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