Why is George Soros selling stocks, buying gold and making “a series of big, bearish investments”? If things stay relatively stable like they are right now, these moves will likely cost George Soros a tremendous amount of money. But if a major financial crisis is imminent, he stands to make obscene returns. So does George Soros know something that the rest of us do not? Could it be possible that he has spent too much time reading websites such as The Economic Collapse Blog? What are we to make of all of this?  The recent trading moves that Soros has made are so big and so bearish that they have even gotten the attention of the Wall Street Journal…Worried about the outlook for the global economy and concerned that large market shifts may be at hand, the billionaire hedge-fund founder and philanthropist recently directed a series of big, bearish investments, according to people close to the matter.  Soros Fund Management LLC, which manages $30 billion for Mr. Soros and his family, sold stocks and bought gold and shares of gold miners, anticipating weakness in various markets. Investors often view gold as a haven during times of turmoil. Hmmm – it sounds suspiciously like George Soros and Michael Snyder are on the exact same page as far as what is about to happen to the global economy.  You know that it is very late in the game when that starts happening…One thing that George Soros is particularly concerned about that I haven’t been talking a lot about yet is the upcoming Brexit vote. If the United Kingdom leaves the EU (and hopefully they will), the short-term consequences for the European economy could potentially be absolutely catastrophic…Mr. Soros also argues that there remains a good chance the European Union will collapse under the weight of the migration crisis, continuing challenges in Greece and a potential exit by the United Kingdom from the EU.  “If Britain leaves, it could unleash a general exodus, and the disintegration of the European Union will become practically unavoidable,” he said.

Peter Mandelson, the former EU trade commissioner and ex-business secretary, said Schäuble’s comments “finally knocks on the head the leave campaign’s claim that we can leave the EU and still enjoy the benefits of the single market”.  “We cannot leave the club and continue to use its facilities,” the Labour peer said. “Being outside the single market wold be a hammer blow to the UK economy. Our future trade [would] be hit and our manufacturing sector, which relies on the single market’s free movement of goods and people, [would] be at risk. This is the cold reality of Brexit that the British people must face. If we leave we lose the economic gains of being the world’s largest free-trade zone, putting jobs and livelihoods at risk.”  Iain Duncan Smith, the former work and pensions secretary, said of Schäuble’s comments: “To quote Mandy Rice-Davis, he would say that, wouldn’t he? … What I call the realpolitik underneath the surface is that they don’t want to get into spats. Of course they don’t. We’re a friend, we cooperate in Nato, the G8 and G20. Mr Schauble’s bound to say what he said. Come on. Don’t tell me that Mr Osborne hasn’t been on that line to him almost permanently for the last few weeks …“You’ll probably get a load of these statements. Every finance minister in Europe is going to line up. They’ve probably got them every day between now and the referendum.”

The leave campaign has said it does not want to be in the single market, because it would not want the UK to have free movement. But its leading advocates, including Boris Johnson and Gove, dismiss the idea that Germany or other EU countries would impose trade tariffs given they sell the UK more in manufactured goods than they buy.

Three-month interbank offered rates in Riyadh have suddenly begun to spiral upwards, reaching the highest since the Lehman crisis in 2008.  Reports that the Saudi government is to pay contractors with tradable IOUs show how acute the situation is becoming. The debt-crippled bin Laden group is laying off 50,000 construction workers as austerity bites in earnest. Societe Generale’s currency team has advised clients to short the Saudi riyal, betting that the country will be forced to ditch its long-standing dollar peg, a move that could set off a cut-throat battle for global share in the oil markets.  Francisco Blanch, from Bank of America, said a rupture of the peg is this year’s number one “black swan event” and would cause oil prices to collapse to $25 a barrel. Saudi Arabia’s foreign reserves are still falling by $10bn (£6.9bn) a month, despite a switch to bond sales and syndicated loans to help plug the huge budget deficit.  Can Saudi Arabia weather the current storm?   The country’s remaining reserves of $582bn are in theory ample – if they are really liquid – but that is not the immediate issue. The problem for the Saudi central bank (SAMA) is that reserve  depletion automatically tightens  monetary policy.  Bank deposits are contracting. So is the M2 money supply. Domestic bond sales do not help because they crowd out Saudi Arabia’s wafer-thin capital markets and squeeze liquidity. Riyadh now plans a global bond issue.  While crude prices have rallied 80pc to almost $50 a barrel since mid-February, this has not yet been enough to ease Saudi Arabia’s financial crunch.  The rebound in crude is increasingly fragile in any case as tough talk from the US Federal Reserve sends the dollar soaring, and Canada prepares to restore 1.2m barrels a day (b/d) of lost output. “We feel that markets have moved too high, too far, too soon. We still face a large inventory overhang and supply outages are reversible,” said BNP Paribas. Total chief Patrick Pouyanne told the French senate last week that prices could deflate as fast as they rose. “The market won’t come back into balance until the end of the year,” he said. Mr Pouyanne said the collapse in annual oil and gas investment to $400bn – from $700bn in 2014 – would lead to a global shortage of 5m barrels by 2020 and another wild spike in prices, but first the glut has to be cleared.  The oil rally is now at a make-or-break juncture. A growing number of oil traders warn that speculative purchases of “paper barrels” by hedge funds have decoupled from fundamentals. There is usually a seasonal slide in demand over the late summer. 

Over the last few weeks, several German politicians have criticized the ultralax monetary policy adopted by the ECB, which cut the policy rate to zero in March. The officials in Berlin are saying that this measure affects those Germans who save money. (A.V.)  Mario Draghi said that the ECB is ready "to use all the available instruments" to stimulate the rise of prices in the Eurozone, but expressed his confidence in the effects of the measures passed by the bank so far.  "Our policies work, they are efficient", said Draghi, and he added: "It just takes time for those measures to produce their effects in full".  The president of the ECB also stressed that aggressive measures, the kind of "money thrown from helicopters", has not even been brought up in this week's meeting of the council of governors.  Yesterday, the ECB decided not to change the interest rate, after it cut it to a historic low in its March meeting, in an attempt to boost inflation.  The ECB kept the policy rate at zero, while the interest on the marginal lending facility was kept at 0.25%, and the interest rate on deposits was kept at - -0.40%. 

Regulators from some of Europe's biggest markets will take centre stage at this year's EUROMAT Gaming Summit which will take place at the Majestic Hotel in the heart of Barcelona.  The latest programme for the Summit shows that Marta Espasa, the Director General for Gaming in Catalonia will open the programme along with the European Commission's top official Harrie Temmink. Mr. Temmink will then join several other European regulators for a panel discussion including:

     - Peter Naessens from the Belgian Gaming Commission;

     - Elisabetta Poso from the Administration of State Monopolies, Italy;

     - Carlos Hernandez Rivera, Director General of Gaming, Spain;

     - Fernando Prats, Madrid Regional Government, Spain.

Eduardo Antoja, President of EUROMAT and Chairman of the panel discussion with regulators said: "Regulation makes or breaks our industry so having so many top gaming officials from European markets together for one session is a real added value of this year's summit. Operators and manufacturers from across the industry should be there if they want to get a valuable insight into the thinking of the people making decisions that have a direct impact on the industry". Other panel sessions at this year's summit include:

     -What does convergence mean for the land-based gaming industry in Europe?

     - Player tracking: Does it help to improve responsibility?

     - Are manufacturers or operators driving the gaming machine market in Europe?

     Delegate numbers are set to soar with industry leaders and regulators sharing their thinking on how the European market is evolving.

The rulings issued by the courts in the lawsuits filed by the National Consumer Protection Authority (ANPC) against banks apply to all similar loan contracts, the Constitutional Court of Romania ruled yesterday (CCR), which has rendered a ruling on the unconstitutionality exception raised concerning art. 12 and 13 of the Law no. 193/2000 concerning abusive clauses in contracts concluded between traders and consumers, as announced by the Parakletos Association in a press release. He explained that the exception was invoked by four banks in the lawsuits they are involved in with the ANPC concerning the existence of abusive clauses in the contracts they concluded with consumers. "The CCR has rejected the exception, meaning that a ruling in favor of the ANPC has erga omnes effects, in other words it applies to all contracts of that nature", according to Parakletos. So far, the ANPC has won several such lawsuits in the first circuit, with the banks, the one against OTP has also been won in the last circuit.  In October 2013, the provisions of articles 12 and 13 of the Law no. 193/2000 concerning abusive clauses in contracts concluded between professionals and consumers, with the modifications that were made to them by the Law no. 76/2012 for the implementation of the Law no. 134/2010 concerning the Civil Procedure Code. Article 12 stipulates: "If the use of adhesion contracts which include abusive clauses are found, the control entities stipulated in Art. 8 (ed. note: the authorized agents of the National Consumer Protection Agency and authorized specialists of other entities of the public administration, depending on their competences) will notify the court from the domicile, or the headquarters of the professional, and demanding that the professional be required to amend the ongoing contracts, by removing the abusive clauses they may contain. (...) The consumer protection associations (...) can sue professionals that use adhesion contracts that contain abusive clauses, with the courts stipulated in paragraph (1), and ask the latter to decide the cessation of their use, by eliminating the abusive clauses". Article 13 states: "The court, if it finds the existence of abusive terms in the contract, requires the professionals to change all ongoing adhesion contracts, as well as to eliminate all abusive clauses from boilerplate contracts, meant to be used as part of the professional activity". There are several ongoing "class action" lawsuits filed by the ANPC, especially against banks.  The Parakletos Association has intervened in seven of the ANPC cases against the banks, as a third party. The leaders of Parakletos state that, through the ruling in the ANPC/OTP Bank case, lays the groundwork for the straightening of all the contracts between professionals and consumers, when they contain abusive clauses, without the consumers in question having to resort to individual lawsuits.

The European Commission will impose fines of hundreds of millions of pounds on countries that do not take in refugees.  Jean-Claude Junker is tomorrow expected to unveil plans to impose a penalty of around €250,000 euros per rejected refugee, in a bid to salvage his botched migration quota scheme.

The European Commission is expected to propose on Wednesday that an emergency scheme to distribute 160,000 people around the bloc following the massive influx last summer be put on a permanent footing, with a quota system of allocations that kick in if there is another vast wave of migrants that overwhelms a country.  The new plan comes despite the temporary scheme having proved a flop. It was approved against the wishes of Poland, Slovakia, Romania and Hungary in September, and so far, 1,441 people have been moved.  “Einstein defined insanity as doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results,” remarked one diplomat.

Greece's lenders, especially the IMF, want the Greek parliament to adopt a €3.6 billion package of austerity measures that would be implemented only if Greece missed its primary surplus target for 2018, set at 3.5 percent of GDP by the bailout memorandum signed last year.

The primary surplus is the budget surplus before the state has to repay interests on its debt.

The Greek government, which said legislating in advance was unconstitutional, has proposed to commit to take measures in the future if fiscal data approved by Eurostat show that the target will be missed. A more political argument is that the quartet's request for a contingency package goes beyond what was agreed by eurozone leaders last July and then written down in the bailout memorandum of understanding signed in August.  That is why Tsipras, who always said he would do "nothing more and nothing less" than what was agreed last summer, is trying to push the discussion back to the highest political level.  A eurozone summit is however unlikely, as EU leaders have been willing to let their finance ministers deal with the Greek crisis. The leaders took over the talks last year only when a Greek exit from the eurozone became a real danger.

The biggest Italian banks, insurers and asset managers in the country, have accepted, on Monday night, to create a five billion Euros fund meant to help troubed banks, to allay investor fears over the stability of the local banking sector. The fund, called "Atlas", will benefit from major capital injections from "UniCredit" and "Intesa Sanpaolo", the top two largest banks. According to sources quoted by Reuters, "UniCredit" and "Intesa Sanpaolo" will each contribute one billion Euros to that fund. The sources are also saying that state owned bank CDP will contribute 500 million Euros, smaller banks will allocate between 500 and 700 million Euros, banking foundations will contribute approximately 520 million Euros, and insurers - another 500 - 700 million Euros.  In exchange for the financing offered by private banks, the Italian government has accepted to revise its bankruptcy legislation, in order to facilitate the sale of non-performing loans. Italian PM Matteo Renzi said: "In the coming days we will make the bankruptcy procedure simpler and quicker, so that all the parties involved recoup their money within a reasonable delay".  Currently, in Italy it takes about eight years on average to recoup non-performing loans, compared to approximately two years in the EU. The Italian banking system is facing non-performing loans of approximately 360 billion Euros, one third of the total volume in the Eurozone. The "Atlas" fund will allow supporting "Banca Popolare di Vicenza" and "Veneto Banca", financial institutions that have to raise almost 3 billion Euros in the coming weeks, to consolidate their capital. The fund may invest two billion Euros in the future stock issues of "Banca Popolare di Vicenza" and "Veneto Banca", and may even acquire one of these banks.  The European Commission has informed that it is keeping in touch with the government in Rome on the creation of the fund intended to support banks.

It will take months to reopen Brussels airport fully, its CEO has warned, as staff return to the site a week after it was targeted by Islamist bombers. Arnaud Feist said the building will have to be rebuilt "from the air conditioning to the check-in desks".  The airport said later it would remain closed on Wednesday, dashing hopes it would resume partial services.  Thirty-two people were killed and 96 more are still in hospital after bombs targeted the airport and a metro train.  EU institutions reopened on Tuesday, amid beefed-up security measures. Increased searches on bags and vehicles are being introduced at the European Parliament while many events organised by non-EU bodies have been suspended.  Some 800 airport workers were asked to return to work on Monday to test provisional arrangements involving a temporary check-in area. Enhanced security measures are being introduced in the temporary building and further screening of baggage will take place before passengers reach the departure lounge.

Europe faces a perfect storm of crises on a scale not seen since World War Two. Endless streams of migrants are testing political cohesion. The euro zone crisis remains deeply unresolved, with the richer north and poorer south eyeing each other suspectly. A resurgent Russia provides an external threat in a way not seen since the Berlin Wall fell. Ukraine is a stark reminder that limited conflicts are not unthinkable.  But major, widespread European conflagration? It might remain unlikely, but no longer as unthinkable as it once was.  Some even predict it. In recent months, several current and former U.S. and European officials have told me they privately believe a major European war is no longer unthinkable. One even said he actively expected it to happen.  My own country, Britain, faces its own rather raw choice in June this year, deciding whether or not to remain a member of the European Union. The UK will probably stay in, informed opinion says — although there is also a consensus that the worse the news flow from the continent, the more likely it is to leave. It is difficult to predict how events will unfold, or even what the greatest risks might be: the effects of mass migration, the dangers of growing tensions with a resurgent Russia, the ongoing lingering threat that the euro might unravel. The worst-case scenario might be all of the above happening at once, prompting a collapse into chaos and violence that could be extremely difficult to manage or recover from. Worries over the effect of the migrant crisis skyrocketed after the November Paris attacks, and perhaps even more after reported New Year’s Eve mass sexual assaults in Cologne and other German cities, some blamed on migrants. Russia, meanwhile, is increasingly accused by some U.S. and European officials of deliberately exacerbating tensions in Europe through propaganda and disinformation. At the end of February Philip Breedlove, NATO’s military chief and head of the U.S. European Command went so far as to accuse Moscow of “weaponizing” refugees by stoking the Syrian war to undermine European institutions and resolve. Russia’s agenda remains extremely opaque — particularly since this week’s announcement by Moscow of a withdrawal from Syria. Vladimir Putin could be trying to push Bashar al-Assad towards the negotiating table by threatening to cut support — or simply trying to muddy the waters still further. For sure, the unraveling of the EU — and even more so, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization — would offer Moscow considerable short-term advantage. It would also be a catastrophe for vulnerable Northern European states such as the openly nervous Baltics. Ultimately, though, a truly chaotic collapse in Europe could threaten Russia’s interests as much as anyone else.

"I am concerned this Government I want to succeed ... it has become too focused on getting the deficit down."  He added that he chose to step down because he felt "semi-detached, isolated in a sense".  And he claimed he began to lose the ability to make the case for his way of doing things and felt he was losing his influence. "I progressively got more and more depressed that we were running to an arbitrary agenda with a welfare cap in it", he added.  "My concern as I have said ... it's all about how we are perceived and how that balance is right. My deep concern has been that this very limited narrow attack on working age benefits means we simply dont get that balance, we lose the balance of the generations."  "I would not need to do anything on Europe because I have as much freedom as I like ... Europe has nothing to do with this, that is a deliberate attempt to put something out there that discredits me" IDS tells Sky.  "If I was restrained on Europe this might have some logic but it does not ... I recognise this would happen, there would be an attempt to besmirch my ... it's not about Europe."   "I went through a lot of tough decisions last year," IDS adds, mentions tax credits, taper among other things. He says he realised he did not have the power to oppose "raids" on his DWP budget and says Number 10 briefing that the PIP cuts were to pay for tax cuts for middle earners were "wrong". That appears to have been the final straw.

Despite the new set of panic selling hitting markets in the last minutes, Draghi is continuing to stress just how determined the ECB is fight off deflation.  He is asked if the central bank is over-reacting.  "It is not an over-reaction to low oil prices. It is a reaction to the fact conditions have significantly changed since early December. This change was due to a significant weakening of global growth prospects." He also bats away criticism that central banks are running out of tools or that their current measures don't work, highlighting that credit creation has increased after QE .  "Fragementation in the eurozone has now disappeared" he asserts. .. The euro and stocks are taking today's mega stimulus measures badly, despite the fact they exceeded all initial expectations.  It's difficult to tell just why, but Draghi's comments that rates do not need to head lower for now seems to have unleashed  a fresh round of panic for traders. However, and it is important to stress, =the Italian insisted that the ECB would be flexible in reacting when "the facts change".  Interest rates will also stay low and could head lower beyond the QE window into 2017. Before the press conference concluded, Draghi added:  "We are not in deflation" despite the -0.3pc consumer prices this year. Inflation will go up as a result of these measures, but Draghi admits it will take a long time to get near the close to 2pc target. "This is substantially difference to Japan in the 90s".

A recession in Europe could lead to the collapse of the Eurozone, as the single currency would buckle under the political turmoil unleashed by a fresh downturn, a leading investment bank has warned.  In a research note titled "Close to the edge", economists at Swiss bank Credit Suisse warned the fate of monetary union hangs in the balance if Europe's policymakers are unable to ward off another global slump and quell anti-euro populism.  "The viability of the euro is contingent on the current recovery," said Peter Foley at Credit Suisse.  "If the euro area were to relapse back into recession, it is not clear it would endure."  Although the bloc's nascent recovery was likely to persist in the coming months, Credit Suisse said there were worrying signs of deterioration emanating from Europe's economies. These include heightened credit stress in the banking sector and market volatility.    Benoit Cœuré , executive board member at the ECB, said the central bank's policy stance could not "become a source of uncertainty" for expectant markets. "In the still fragile environment we face today, what is essential is that policy works to reduce uncertainty," Mr Cœuré  said on Wednesday.  He admitted that the ECB's move into negative interest rates could have adverse effects on the continent's lenders, hinting policymakers would mitigate the impact of its -0.3pc deposit rate on bank profitability. "We are well aware of this issue. We are monitoring it on a regular basis and we are studying carefully the schemes used in other jurisdictions to mitigate possible adverse consequences for the bank lending channel," said Mr Cœuré .

 Following the capital deficit of almost 8 billion Euros, the regulator of the Austrian financial market (FMA) has imposed a moratorium on the payment of the debts of Heta on March 1st, 2015, which will expire on May 31st, 2016.  "The Finance Ministry has said that Heta is not insolvent, and the guarantees offered by Carinthia and the federal government for Heta's debts will not be affected by the decision", Reuters wrote at the time. The suspension of the payments of Heta has been justified by the need to draw up a resolution plan, which would ensure equal treatment of all creditors, according to the press release of the FMA.  Back in 2015, the Austrian Finance Minister said that the bail-in procedure will also be applied to creditors, as the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD) was transposed into the country's national legislation and came into effect on January 1st, 2015.  Now, honoring the government's debt doesn't seem to matter in Vienna anymore, and judging by his own statements, the minister of finance is convinced that the financial situation of the country and its borrowing costs will not be affected.  Unfortunately, reality, in particular the one that is giving the European authorities nightmares since the beginning of the crisis, does not "bend" to political will. Frances Coppola further writes that "Carinthia's insolvency will lead to a heavy fiscal adjustment for Austria, amid an increase in borrowing costs", and the "value of no risk investments will see a massive drop, because government can no longer be considered safe". "The implications, not only for the financial stability of Austria but for that of Europe as well, are terrible", the Forbes journalist concludes. If we also add in the uncertainties concerning the application of the bail-in framework, it is almost certain that Europe will need bigger crises than the Brexit and the refugees' "cover" the growing cracks in its financial foundation. 

The European Parliament backs the monetary policy carried out by the European Central Bank to guarantee price stability but warns that its effect won't last without structural reforms, budgetary discipline and productive investments in the Member States. Moreover, the risks of the ECB's unconventional measures need to be monitored carefully, the European Parliament cautions in its Annual Report on the European Central Bank.  Tom Vandenkendelaere MEP, Shadow Rapporteur and Member of the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, calls for a multi-tiered approach to stimulate growth and job creation: "We support the ECB's efforts to increase inflation to under but close to 2%, and its policy to increase the supply of money is slowly yielding results. However, we should not be blind to the risks of this approach and carefully monitor for negative side effects. In addition, Member States should deliver on their part and carry through the necessary reforms and productive investments to boost economic growth and employment."

Tom Vandenkendelaere is appreciative of the ECB's efforts to increase transparency and maintain close ties with the European Parliament: "Thanks to the ECB's efforts on greater transparency, most central banks are now in the habit of explaining important monetary decisions to the wider public."

The ECB is to discuss whether to expand its stimulus measures at its next meeting March 10. Draghi said there were "a variety of instruments" the ECB could employ if it decided more is needed. It could increase its 60 billion euros in monthly bond purchases with newly printed money, a step aimed at driving down already low interest rates and raising inflation that remains too low at 0.4 percent.

He expressed some frustration with governments that have held back spending at a time of economic weakness. He urged governments that are in better shape financially to spend more on public investment that would increase grow and to avoid excessive taxation.

Monetary policy from the central bank "is the only truly stimulative policy over the past four years," he said. ECB officials have warned governments not to rely just on central bank stimulus to boost the modest eurozone recovery.

Frankfurt, Germany • European Central Bank head Mario Draghi says some eurozone banks "face challenges" but that the system is more resilient due to oversight that was strengthened after the global financial crisis.  Draghi said Monday that thanks to new supervision at the European Union level, banks were in a position to bring down the amount of bad loans burdening their finances "in an orderly manner over the next few years."  His comments in the European Parliament follow a week of violent swings in the stock prices of major European banks including Deutsche Bank and Societe Generale. Draghi said some banks faced challenges from litigation and restructuring costs as well as working off soured investments.  The recent sharp drops in stock prices reflected fears banks might be exposed to risks in commodity producing markets, companies and countries. Commodity prices have dropped amid fears about the health of the global economy. Draghi said the situation was "amplified" by perceptions that banks may have difficulty adjusting to an economy with lower growth and lower interest rates. Low interest rates, in part the result of central bank policies, have squeezed bank earnings by narrowing the difference between the rate at which they borrow and the rate at which they lend.

The European Commission has cut its forecast for economic growth in the eurozone this year. It has cut its prediction for the 19-country bloc in 2016 to 1.7% from the 1.8% it had forecast in November.  That figure would still mark a moderate increase from the figure of 1.6% in 2015. The Commission said government spending had been unexpectedly high because of the number of migrants arriving in Europe, which had boosted GDP.  But it warned that the crisis posed "major political challenges" that could undercut growth if not properly handled.  And vice-president Valdis Dombrovskis said: "Europe's moderate growth is facing increasing headwinds, from slower growth in emerging markets such as China, to weak global trade and geopolitical tensions in Europe's neighborhood."  "It is important to continue structural reforms that can help our economies grow, withstand shocks in the future and improve job opportunities for our population." The Commission cut its inflation forecast for this year from 1.0% to 0.5%, even further below the European Central Bank's target of about 2%. Consumer prices fell by 0.3% in 2015, largely as a result of the fall in energy prices.

What a shock. Listening to the news this morning it was clear to me that Shell has done slightly better than expected and the market was happy. In fact Shell is up 60 this morning. Imagine my surprise when I read the "shock horror" headline, and this from a, so called, Business Reporter. Not having read the accounts I am assuming that the "exceptional items" include a great deal of write downs which of course do not affect the cash position. More information and less hyperbole would have been helpful.  Royal Dutch Shell has become the latest victim of the oil price rout after it confirmed 10,000 jobs would be axed amid its sharpest decline in income in 13 years. Pummelled by low crude prices, income for the year slumped 87pc to $1.9bn.  The oil major said earnings on a current cost of supplies basis, its preferred way of measuring profits, tumbled 56pc in the final three months of 2015 to $1.8bn, compared to $4.2bn in the previous year.  The torrid quarter took its toll on the Anglo-Dutch group, dragging its full-year profit from $19bn in 2014 to $3.8bn - an 80pc fall. Excluding exceptional items, profits for the year came in marginally below market expectations at $10.7bn. Earnings in Shell's upstream business - which seeks out and produces oil - were hindered by “the significant decline in oil and gas prices”, the group said.  Ben van Beurden, chief executive, said: “We are making substantial changes in the company reorganising our upstream, and reducing costs and capital investment, as we refocus Shell, and respond to lower oil prices”.