Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Brent crude plunged below $57 per barrel briefly on Tuesday, marking a new five-and-a-half-year low as traders bet that the global oversupply of oil will continue deep into 2015.
The benchmark has fallen more than 45pc since June and is on track for its worst year since 2008, while oil traded in the US is now poised to crash through the $50 per barrel level.
"Oil bulls are having another hard week as Brent oil dropped to $56.90, a new five-year low, as lingering worries over supply excess overwhelmed fear of Libya supply disruptions," said Peter Rosenstreich, head of market strategy at Swissquote.
Crude prices have plummeted since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) agreed in November to leave its production quotas unchanged at 30m per day, effectively triggering a price war with producers outside the Middle East-dominated cartel.
Opec countries led by Saudi Arabia - which pump a third of the world's crude - are concerned about the loss of market share to shale oil drillers in the US and ballooning supply outside the group.
I am pro. EU.but unfortunately as time goes on it seems more likely that as the Federalist Gravy Train Merchants push their agenda further a nationalist backlash looms larger . The more responsibility these incompetents take on themselves the more they present a bigger target to the likes of UKIP . Individual governments make equally bad judgements but they can be held to account by their electorates , the alternative may be not much better but at least the people can have their say. Looking at the record of governance by the EU so far it has been a disaster for many of it's citizens. The clown Junker seems to have the attitude that democracy is only for the wealthy and that in the smallest of doses. Examine the Great New Junker Plan the most unlikely piece of economic nonsense since Ms Hollande promised to reduce unemployment by the power of social spending and an agreement to reduce coporate taxation but only if business took on staff they didn't want or need. Now The French can hold Hollande responsible ,and they surely will. But when a group that purports to be running a society and fails miserably to sectors of that society (whole countries) and those sectors have no means to change their governors that will invariably end in revolution.    
Nothing could be more patriotic than protecting the rights of free born Britons from the the clutches of EU bureaucrats and so leaving the corrupt, undemocratic empire in the making of Europe would help Britain to retain its place in the world as a free country.
There is so much disingenuous rubbish spouted by pro-EU folk - NATO kept the peace, not the EU in the last 60 years. Our jobs are safe as we would continue to trade with the EU and they with us regardless of whether we're in or out so that 3 million jobs lost claim is a complete fantasy. The EU is seen by the rest of the world as an anti free trade bloc (talks the talk but imposes a myriad of regulations to thwart the walk) operating barriers. EU fisheries policies have ruined the UK fisheries industry. In most southern EU countries the rule of law is not observed in the same way as it is in northern Europe, so we are aligned to a bunch of corrupt politicians whose main aim is self interest (as can be seen by the Brussels elite helping themselves to salaries and pensions out of all proportion to the usefulness of their work. The Euro was a vanity project where the rules were all broken to enable unsuitable countries to join, and rules throughout the EU are ignored by many countries where the national interest always overrides the agreed objectives of the EU.
I could go on... the EU has been a disaster for Britain and judging the results by having the ability to drive around the EU unimpeded by passport controls is the blinkered rose tinted view of a tourist ignorant of how horrid it is to deal with bureaucracy in much of Europe and how ghastly it is to get any justice when there has been no greasing of palms to get things done.

Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Greece was plunged into a renewed political crisis  after parliament failed to elect a head of state, setting the stage for snap polls tipped to bring radical leftists to power. Athens’s 300-seat house voted by 168-132 in favor of Stavros Dimas, a former European commissioner and the sole candidate for the post, becoming president, but he had been required to win 180 ballots.
“The number of 168 votes is a clear parliamentary majority but as the constitution foresees it does not allow my election,” he said. “What is important, now, is the interests of the country and the Greek people … what unites us is Greece.”  Under Greek law the parliament now has to be dissolved within 10 days and elections called within 30. The prime minister, Antonis Samaras, whose conservative-dominated two-party alliance has been in office since June 2012, said he would seek elections as soon as possible. “Tomorrow I will go to the president of the republic to request snap polls as early as possible on 25 January,” he said. “It is the hour of democracy, which means truth and responsibility, not populism.”  Five years into Greece’s worst economic crisis in decades, the stridently anti-austerity Syriza party is leading polls and likely to win. The leftists have declared that renegotiation of the accords Athens has signed with the EU, ECB and IMF – the bodies that have kept it afloat to the tune of €240bn – will be among its top priorities. It will also seek to write off the country’s monumental €320bn debt – ambitions that have revived fears of Greece colliding with creditors and being ejected from the eurozone.   Following the vote, Syriza’s leader, Alexis Tsipras, told reporters the country had experienced “a historic day”.
“In a few days the Samaras government, which pillaged the country, will belong to the past, as will the memoranda of austerity,” he said of the bailout accords. “The future has already begun. You should be optimistic and happy.”  The roll-call vote took place in a somber atmosphere, eclipsed by the tragedy on board a ferry in the Adriatic where rescue efforts were at that point continuing almost 24 hours after the vessel caught fire.  Saying it is a crisis depends very much from where the individual is sitting. For the pro-EU and the bankers it might well be a crisis as it threatens their corrupt game, but for ordinary Greeks and eurosceptics this is a good day.
For 5 years Greece has been plunged into crisis, GDP down 27% from the 2008 peak, average household income down 40%, debt to GDP over 170%, unemployment near 30%, youth unemployment over 50%, Golden Dawn Nazis on the march, suicide rate up...........and so it goes on. If that isn't a crisis in the last 5 years I don't what is. If Syriza wins then the real hard work starts, they are going to renegotiate the MOU with the Troika, and if no agreement can be reached will leave the euro. That will cause even more pain in the short run, but ultimately it is the only salvation for Greece.   If there is contagion, and a fair chance there will be then the blight of the euro can be consigned to the dustbin of history where it belongs, along with the EU. This could be the re-ignition of the eurocrisis which has been dormant for the last year or so. ,, That sucking noise you can faintly hear? that's Euros, rushing out of Greek banks by the truckload. If you had EU denominated savings, you'd move them too. It may not be a high probability, but one outcome is a Grexit and anyone with EU savings will have them swapped for new currency at a rate they didn't like, which would probably get a lot worse rather quickly. Anyone with EU denominated debts might quite like such a settlement (unless it was you who was owed the money).   After a ghastly reset, the country would find it hard if not impossible to borrow, and imported goods (in EU) would be unaffordable expensive.
Inequality would probably get worse, as those with assets will long ago have hedged by parking some of what they own outside of Greece and they'll be rich in local currency.
Whatever happens, it will be bad for those at the lower end, as always it is. I feel very sorry for them. I have no idea what would be the best as well as realistic to happen.

Monday, December 29, 2014

Greek MPs failed to elect a president in a second vote in parliament, bringing an early general election, feared by financial markets and the country's EU-IMF creditors, a step closer.
The government candidate, EU Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas, fell 32 votes short of the required 200 votes, meaning a third and final vote will be held on December 29.
"The required majority has not been met, therefore the vote will be repeated for a third time," parliament speaker Evangelos Meimarakis told the chamber.  Failure to elect a president in the third vote will automatically spark early elections in Greece, the second in less than two years, a prospect that could reverse fiscal reforms.  The Greek stock exchange opened with a drop , losing over 2.0 percent at the time of the vote. In a bid to sway independent MPs, Prime Minister Antonis Samaras on Sunday offered to hold early elections in late 2015, provided that a president is elected and that tough talks with the country's EU-IMF creditors are concluded first.  European Union and International Monetary Fund officials fear an early election -- which could be held as soon as January 25 -- would be won by radical leftist party Syriza and would undo Greece's ongoing fiscal reforms. The presidential vote has been tainted by allegations from a small nationalist party that people close to the government were trying to bribe its lawmakers into voting for Dimas. )AFP)

Sunday, December 28, 2014

Moscow’s Trust bank has become the first financial casualty of Russia’s currency crisis after the country’s central bank threw it a $530m (£340m) lifeline to prevent it going bankrupt.
Trust, which uses the Hollywood star Bruce Willis to advertise its credit cards, ran into trouble after its policy of offering attractive savings rates and consumer loans fell foul of Russia’s economic slowdown.  The country’s central bank said it was providing up to 30bn rubles to help the medium-sized bank in what is thought likely to be the first of a series of bailouts made necessary by the near-halving of the global price of oil and the sharp fall in the value of the ruble.
Last Friday, Russian MPs rushed through a bill authorizing a 1tn-rouble recapitalization of the country’s banks, which have suffered big losses as a result the currency crisis.
The central bank’s Deposit Insurance Agency will be responsible for supervising Trust under a temporary arrangement until a new investor, likely to be one of Russia’s leading banks, is chosen as a white knight.  Trust’s problems echo those of Northern Rock, the first bank to get into trouble in the UK when the global financial crisis broke in the summer of 2007. Like Northern Rock, the Russian bank had been offering loans on easy terms and annual rates of interest in excess of 20% on ruble accounts.  Its difficulties have been made worse by western sanctions, which have made it impossible for Russian banks to get funding from overseas financial markets and left them dependent on domestic investors.  The announcement from the central bank came as a steadier oil price eased the pressure on Russia’s currency. Brent crude was trading at $61.14 after losing early gains on the commodity markets, and the ruble was up 5% against the dollar at 55.2.
Emerging markets’ analysts at Capital Economics said in a briefing note: “The Russian ruble has stabilized in recent days, but only after the central bank introduced a raft of measures to limit ruble liquidity – including a massive hike in interest rates – and, perhaps more importantly, oil prices started to edge up. The effects of the collapse in the currency on the real economy will be felt in the first half of 2015.  “Inflation looks set to jump, perhaps to 20%, and real incomes will contract. Meanwhile, although the ruble has stabilized over the past few days, interbank interest rates have spiked to levels that have typically preceded a credit crunch in the wider economy. All told, we think that GDP will shrink by 5% next year.”  James Butterfill, a global equity strategist at Coutts, said: “While the economic situation is serious, Russian equities look oversold – the MSCI Russia index is now trading at 0.4 times its book value – a 70% discount to emerging markets as a whole and a more bearish position than even the low of 0.6 times during the credit crisis. To find anything cheaper, you would have to go back to the 1998 crisis triggered by the collapse of hedge fund Long Term Capital Management, when Russia’s equity market traded at 0.2 times book value.”

Saturday, December 27, 2014

The number of people seeking work in France has risen to a record high, official figures show. The jobless total rose by 27,400 in November to 3,488,300 - the highest level yet seen.  That means the number looking for a job has risen by 5.8% in the past year.  The claimant count rose in November for the third month in a row, and official government estimates suggest the economy will have grown by just 0.4% this past year.  The jobless figures count the number of people claiming benefits and looking for work with the National Agency for Unemployment.  The alternative international measure of unemployment, devised by the International Labour Organization and based on a regular survey, says that unemployment in France rose to 2.84 million in the third quarter of the year, giving an unemployment rate of 9.9%.  President Francois Hollande, elected in 2012, made the creation of more jobs a key feature of his election campaign.  He recently stated that if he failed in this aim, he would not stand again in the 2017 presidential elections.  The latest attempt to rouse the economy from stagnation and to create more jobs was announced earlier in December. The French Prime Minister, Manuel Valls, and the Economy Minister, Emmanuel Macron, outlined plans that included increasing the number of businesses operating on Sundays, and opening up regulated sectors, such as certain professions, to competition. It is not obvious this strategy would succeed in reviving the economy, even if implemented fully. The deregulation plan produced immediate protests by thousands of people in Paris and faces opposition from within the ruling Socialist Party.

Friday, December 26, 2014

The US economy grew at its fastest pace in 11 years in the third quarter, in the strongest sign yet that the world's biggest economy has shifted into higher gear.
The Commerce Department on Tuesday revised up its estimate of GDP growth to a 5pc annual pace from the 3.9pc rate reported last month, citing stronger consumer and business spending than it had previously factored in.  It was the fastest growth pace since the third quarter of 2003. GDP growth has now been revised up by a total of 1.5 percentage points since the first estimate was published in October.  The news sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average above 18,000 for the first time as it climbed as high as 18051.05.  Big revisions to GDP data are not unusual as the government does not have full information when it makes its initial estimates. 
The economy expanded at a 4.6pc rate in the second quarter. It has now experienced the two strongest back-to-back quarters of growth since 2003. Economists polled by Reuters had expected growth would be raised to a 4.3pc pace.
While the pace of growth likely slowed in the fourth quarter, a rapidly strengthening labor market and lower gasoline prices should provide the economy with sufficient momentum in 2015 and keep the Federal Reserve on course to start raising interest rates by the middle of next year.