An honest analysis of recent Greek opinion polls suggests that the radical left wing Syriza is on course to win a clear mandate to implement anti-austerity policies that are inconsistent with continued euro membership.  Syriza support is sufficient to secure a workable majority. 36% of the final vote is the approximate threshold beyond which a strong anti-austerity government is plausible. Syriza’s performance has been consistent with this in each of the last 20 opinion polls, and over 40% of the vote on average in the last five.  The electoral system may work in Syriza’s favour. It is not just that a sixth of all seats are awarded as a bonus to the winner; but also that the votes of parties with less than 3% do not count in the final analysis.  It is not over yet. The ruling New Democracy party is entitled to portray the vote as a referendum on euro exit (around 75% of Greeks strongly wish to stay in). The experience of mid-2012 suggests voters’ sight of the exit abyss could help New Democracy close the gap slightly on Syriza.  But the binary (in or out) nature of the vote decision may also help Syriza to achieve a decisive victory by squeezing out smaller parties (eg. Independent Greeks), as voters herd to the big two.  A decisive Syriza victory in such a “referendum” would lower the probability of full capitulation to Troika program requirements. Even if Syriza were to sign off on a continuation of the programme, adequate implementation appears unlikely. It was hard enough for determined centre-right politicians, never mind Syriza.  Should Syriza fail to implement the program adequately, Greece could return to the precipice. Perhaps the government would fall at or before this point and there would be a return to an implementation-minded government; perhaps Greece would exit (this is not our baseline).  Greek assets have responded negatively; bond prices suggest default probabilities have risen sharply.

The EU will start to work when first, Greece is out and every average, say, Spanish voter can communicate with the average German voter without more than 40% lost in language issues. Cross border communication between the people, not politicians, is downright crucial. They can all spend years learning French, Slovenian, or whatever, or spend about a year learning the easiest language possible. Which? The one hears more than 50% of the time on German, Spanish, Italian, French, Portuguese, Dutch, Austrian radio. The day the average German farmer walks up to a French farmer and can actually carry out important discussions about their future as Europeans, as farmers with common interests, then there is hope. Despite the damn taboos about discussing politics in Europe which is a bar hobby by comparison in America... 

With regards to Greece ...  There is an often quoted figure of €240 billion "pumped into their economy". It wasn't. It went in and came straight out again, into the hands of desperate and grateful banksters across Europe, who, had Greece defaulted, would themselves have gone tits up.

Now. The €240 billion is most definitely still there as "extra Greek debt". And it's that extra debt that Syriza, and many Greeks, are rightly not very happy about, regardless of the "generous interest rates" they've been offered. They got no injection of capital into their economy. They instead got a gun held to their heads to accept a loan to make sure foreign banksters didn't suffer any consequences of their reckless, even criminal (Goldmann Sachs) financing of the various groups of oligarchs running the country over the past 30 years. There are many things wrong with the structure of the Greek economy. It is a monumentally corrupt place. But still, there are an equal number of things wrong with the "solutions" offered by the rest of the EU and others. And the real wrongdoers - the Greek oligarchs and the banks - have yet to suffer any meaningful consequences of their actions. Syriza would definitely see to it that that at least changed.

Indeed...

Indeed ... A form of  dictatorship is the only way that the EU CAN work. Fascism - where the state comes before the individual - same with the EU - the EU project comes before EVERYTHING and EVERYBODY else. It must not fail !!!! People eating out of bins in Athens....50% youth unemployment.....convicted murderers roming Europe at will.....who cares, so long as the Eurocrats get their fat pension - all in the name of 'a democratic Europe' - apparently. Let's hope the EU gradually disappears up its own backside. Is it really such a big deal for Greece to leave the Eurozone? Yes, they will default on their debts, but this is only virtual money and the debtors (ie Germany) were not going to see very much of it back in any case. There will be some months of turbulance whilst they create a new currency and agree on an exchange rate ....the average person will be better off as he will suddenly have a load of New Drachma's in his pocket ...the rich will keep their Euros in their various non-Greek accounts...but then the country can start to benefit from an influx of holiday makers and increased competitiveness for their industry, which is responsible for 60% of their exports. They will still be in the European Union and benefit from the open market....as will the rest of the Union....That's the worse case scenario for the EU. Other countries would see that life is better outside euro. Some countries would also want to exit and some countries that are meant to join would refuse to do so.   I want to think that Berlin and Paris will not cause any more pain on Greece, but on the other hand, if Greece exits and it is a success, the Francogerman monetary union can seriously collapse. So, I suspect that Berlin and Paris would still try to make life difficult for Greece outside the euro.

The Spanish economy has been undergoing a process of labor market reforms in a bid to boost its competitiveness and stimulate growth after years of recession.  Spain posted positive growth for the first time in over two years in the second half of 2013 and is expected to grow by 1.6 pc in 2015, according to the OECD.  However, unemployment continues to be stubbornly high, and at 23.7pc is still the second worst in the single currency area after Greece.  Spain’s deputy labor minister Engracia Hidalgo said the numbers were evidence the country's labor market reforms, which make it easier for companies to hire and fire employees, are beginning to bear fruit.   The biggest fall in unemployment came in the services sector where joblessness was down by 65,275 people, or 2.2pc. Unemployment rose in the construction and industrial sectors. .. Spanish unemployment has recorded the sharpest drop since the country adopted the euro in 1999, in a further sign the economy is managing to get a hold on its joblessness problem.  There was a fall of more than 253,000 in registered unemployment from December 2013 to December 2014, an annual decrease of 5.39pc and the biggest since the country joined the eurozone, according to government figures.  Monthly jobless claims also fell by 64,405 for the last month of the year, representing the second largest December decrease on record ... Meanwhile, the number of people registering as in work rose by 417,000 in 2014 compared, the first annual increase since 2007.

China will relax restrictions on banks' yuan trading from next year, in a small but significant move toward relaxing its capital controls.  The changes will replace daily caps on banks' foreign exchange positions with weekly limits, and for the first time establish unified standards for total foreign exchange positions that banks can hold.  The State Administration of Foreign Exchange published a set of new rules on Tuesday to simplify 14 sets of related regulations and add new provisions liberalizing banks' forex trading practices.  "The timing is well chosen," said a senior dealer at a major European bank in Shanghai.  "With the dollar strengthening globally and emerging market currencies suffering from lingering weakness, it is a good time to relax restrictions."

The yuan has lost 1.3 percent so far this month and looks set to close the year down 2.8 percent in the face of bearish pressure, which is expected to last well into 2015.  Starting Thursday, the SAFE will check banks' position compliance status each week, according to the rules published on the regulator's website, www.safe.gov.cn, leaving them leeway to short dollars within that period, traders said.  However, the SAFE appeared to discourage this interpretation in its statement.

"While banks manage their positions on a weekly basis, their average daily positions should be kept within the limits defined by SAFE," the regulator said, in what traders said was an apparent signal that banks should not go too far.  While position caps for shorting dollars will remain unchanged, the SAFE has published standards for total forex positions that will apply to everyone.

Banks previously needed to apply for quota individually.   All banks with less than $100 million worth of forex settlement business in the previous year will be allowed total positions of $50 million on average by the end of each day in a week, with a maximum short position value of $3 million, according to the new rules.  Those recording a value between $100 million and $1 billion will be granted total positions of $300 million and short positions of $5 million.

Those doing more than $1 billion of business can have total positions of $1 billion and short positions of $10 million.  "Those banks that cannot meet their business demand via the above-mentioned positions can apply to SAFE for additional quotas," the regulator said.

The rules also apply to China-based foreign banks; overseas lenders that have more than one office in China must appoint one key office to manage the positions, the rules said.

The leading oil producer in Latin America, Venezuela, was meanwhile negotiating another big loan with China, as it takes a battering from the price drop and its own planned economy. While Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was in Beijing on , the daily El Nacional reported that China had already lent Venezuela more than $50 billion since 2007, though about half of that had been written off. Every Venezuelan it noted, owed China over $761. In oil-rich Mexico, experts were observing that the state may well have to envisage smaller budgets for several years, not just this year, as Mexico's own export blend may end up costing around just $30 a barrel. Milenio newspaper cited the Senate President Miguel Barbosa as suggesting that the cabinet should start drafting "austerity" plans — a word rarely heard in Mexico. The South China Morning Post reported on the economic stakes of the visit of Latin American leaders in China, although the Hong Kong daily also noted that the first windfall of lower oil prices could be felt in the air: lower costs for the world's airlines.  Analysts around the world widely agree that the most notable new factor in the current trend in energy production is the flood of mostly American-extracted shale gas into the market.  The Guardian notes that U.S. oil production has increased 48% over the past five years, which was originally offset by drops elsewhere. But as demand has also abated, prices have dropped, and may continue downward. Stephen Schork, a U.S.-based market analyst, told the London daily that investor “psychology” is driving oil trading. “We could get a rebound to $70 but we could see $30 before we see $70.”  The political ramifications weigh in the most immediate way on Russia, which may have to reconsider its aggressive policy towards  Ukraine, as it suffers the effects of both "western" sanctions and the sustained drop in oil prices.

Brussels is bent on destroying the private sector - apart from the European conglomerates. We will become like Russia - controlled by the State and a few oligarchs in hock to the leaders. The agenda is of course to destroy the independence of the States that make up the EU and what better way, than by destroying their independent businesses.  Hopefully Europe, the sick old man of the global economy, quietly shuffles off into further isolation and less prominence, with a whimper and not a bang. If European history of the last 2 centuries is of any indication however, that may prove to be wishful thinking. These verbose toffs may look effeminate to American eyes, but they have a peculiar genius for slaughtering each other and much worse, dragging every one else into the fray with them...It probably won't play-out quite as bloodily as in the past, but it could all be just as damaging when all is said and done, I'm afraid....If I remember rightly, I read somewhere (probably in the DT) that a senior member of the Saudi government had declared the country's intention to maintain current production even if the price of oil fell to $20 a barrel -- hence, presumably, the headline of this article....Motivation? Well, the high price of oil for the last number of years, driven in large part by the rapidly expanding Chinese economy, has motivated the exploitation of previously unviable sources of oil, as well as the development of shale, and the development of new technology in engine fuel economy. This wasn't a problem as long as the Chinese were prepared to buy whatever oil the world could produce, but now that the Chinese economy's expansion is slowing, they need less oil, which means there is now a glut. Saudi, which can produce it relatively easily and cheaply, has an opportunity to regain market share and put the kibosh on all the new technologies....If the long term average is $60/bbl, why would it drop to $20/bbl this year? $20/bbl in today's money doesn't compare at all with $20/bbl 15 years ago - this is a silly assumption. Similarly, $100/bbl oil price won't cause a revolution in major oil producing countries, $20/bbl risks widespread budget defects and revolution's. The ruler's of Saudi Arabia and their ilk have enough domestic issues to allow a low oil price to add to it. The US will not allow Saudi Arabia to persist with low oil prices indefinitely, they have a shale industry to protect. If the last goodness knows how many years has shown anything, it is that America survives on protectionism and aggression to protect its economy.