Tuesday, February 17, 2015

...and now...the BS of this week ...

The eurozone's economy grew by a stronger-than-expected 0.3% in the last three months of 2014, helped by rapid growth in Germany.  Germany's economy - the largest in the eurozone - grew by 0.7% in the quarter, comfortably beating analysts' forecasts.  However, France's economy grew by just 0.1% in the same period.  Figures from European statistics agency Eurostat showed the eurozone's economy grew by 0.9% across 2014 as a whole. 
While Germany's economy shrank 0.1% in the third quarter of last year, strong domestic demand helped it to regain momentum in the fourth quarter, the Federal Statistical Office said. The economy grew by 1.6% during 2014.
"This is a thunderbolt," said UniCredit economist Andreas Rees.  "Some spoke of possible recession after the summer but instead Germany rebounded. The fact that the growth comes mainly from the domestic economy gives strong grounds for optimism," he said. The strong data helped to lift European stock markets, and the German Dax index climbed above the 11,000 mark for the first time.
Berenberg Bank economist Christian Schulz suggested cheaper oil, a weaker euro exchange rate and government bond buying by the European Central Bank (ECB) should all help the German economy and "more than offset the serious short-term risks such as Greece and Russia".
"While the first half of 2015 could still be a little more subdued due to these risks, we expect German growth to reach trend levels a bit above 2% in the summer 2015."
Meanwhile, France's anaemic fourth quarter growth meant the economy expanded by just 0.4% over 2014 as a whole.  "It's obviously still too weak, but the conditions are ripe to permit a cleaner start of activity in 2015," said French Finance Minister Michel Sapin.

Monday, February 16, 2015

There is no chance of truce or political solution on the very same day when Merkel and François made their trip to Kiev. On the same day, John Kerry visited Kiev and blame Russia for everything. At the same time, Joe Biden was visiting Brussel and talking to EU president (polish guy) about stopping Russia from redrawing the map.   Merkel and François want to reduce the risk of "total war". John Kerry and Joe Biden are obviously on the opposite direction. Each side has their audience in Europe. And Kiev is listening to nobody but American.  If I have to bet my money, I will short EU currency before spring comes.    The EU has a strasbourg court to punish its member states for HRA non-compliance. Most member states have a judiciary that is an independent pillar that can balance and challenge the executive. The EU itself has no such judiciary to challenge its own shady inner workings and corruptions.   For instance where is the means to force an inquiry into the action of the EU officials and Catharine Ashton which precipitated the fall of the Yanukovych administration. Where are the judicial structures to shine a light on chronic mismanagement and corruption at the EU level and hold its players to account?   Then we can also consider that Khordokovsky was jailed for tax evasion in Russia, most Putin opponents are bankrolled by super rich people who do not want to pay taxes. The jailing of khordokovsky was condemned by the west for unspecified failings in the legal process involved. Though there is much awareness of bank related frauds and mismanagement and of wide spread tax evasion and dodging in the EU and we can see no one held to account, whilst the majority of the population must suffer with austerity. Which region and jurisdiction has the most fair legal system and competent government may be the first one to cast their stone against Russia. It is a pity that we are up to our necks in the west dominated by establishment cronies that have mismanaged their way to the top and now offload the blame and distraction onto Russia and shield their lies behind a wall of mass fear and hysteria.   As for the criticism that the US have given of Russian "meddling" in Ukraine, one may not be in a glass house to throw stones. Exactly how many countries sanctioned the US when it sent in proxy armies into various republics and toppled and assassinated various governments and political leaders? How many governments opposed the US installed puppet states in Iran and elsewhere? How many governments opposed France and UK and issued sanctions when it sought to take the Suez?
If the standards used to indite and send Russia to hell were consistent and not hypocritical in form then people would not be able to see the corrupt state of our countries stolen from us by charlatans and liars.

Sunday, February 15, 2015

The former head of the US central bank, Alan Greenspan, has predicted that Greece will have to leave the eurozone. He told the BBC he could not see who would be willing to put up more loans to bolster Greece's struggling economy.  Greece wants to re-negotiate its bailout, but Mr Greenspan said "I don't think it will be resolved without Greece leaving the eurozone".  Earlier, UK Chancellor George Osborne said a Greek exit would cause "deep ructions" for Britain.  Mr Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1987 to 2006, said: "I believe [Greece] will eventually leave. I don't think it helps them or the rest of the eurozone - it is just a matter of time before everyone recognises that parting is the best strategy.  The problem is that there there is no way that I can conceive of the euro of continuing, unless and until all of the members of eurozone become politically integrated - actually even just fiscally integrated won't do it."  Following the election in Greece of the anti-austerity Syriza party, Greek ministers have been touring European capitals trying to drum up support for a re-negotiation of its bailout terms.  However, there appears little willingness in Berlin, or at the European Central Bank, to alter the terms of its €240bn (£182bn) rescue by the European Union, ECB, and International Monetary Fund.  "The [bailout] conditions with Greece were generous, beyond all measure,'' German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said last week. He saw not justification for relaxing them further. Euro break-up ... Mr Greenspan said: "All the cards are being held by members of the eurozone." He also warned that trying to hold the 19-nation euro bloc together "is putting strain on everybody". He said as well as Greece leaving the eurozone, there was a real risk of a "much bigger break-up" with other southern European countries forced out. Earlier on Sunday, Mr Osborne told the BBC's Andrew Marr Show that the UK was stepping up contingency planning to prepare for a possible Greek exit. "This stand-off between Greece and the eurozone is increasing the risks every day to the British economy," the chancellor said.  A Greek exit from the single currency would create instability in European financial markets and cause "real ructions" in Britain, too, he added.

Saturday, February 14, 2015

Alexis Tsipras outlined a broad range of measures last night, to unravel the austerity programme that Greece has endured since 2010.
Teneo Intelligence has helpfully rounded up the key commitments, which MPs will vote on tomorrow night:
  • Abolish the single property tax (ENFIA) and replace it with another tax targeting large real estate properties.
  • Re-increase the tax-free threshold to €12k (from its current €5K).
  • Restore the 13th pension for gross monthly pensions below €700 from end 2015.
  • Introduce subsidized meals for families living below the poverty line.
  • Rehire 3,500 civil servants who lost their jobs as a result of the mobility scheme introduced by the previous government in the public sector. However, this number would be subtracted from the 15,000 recruitments scheduled for this year.
  • Raise the monthly minimum wage in the private sector from €586 (or €510 for under-25s) to its 2011 level of €751 by 2016.
  • Restore collective wages bargaining with the advice of the International Labor Organization (ILO).
  • Extend the existing ban on foreclosures of primary residences.
  • Stop new privatizations, but extend concessions when in the national interest.
  • Introduce legislation enabling the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund (HFSF) to exercise its full voting rights with no restrictions in recapitalized banks.
  • Repel legislation providing immunity to the members of the boards of the HFSF, the Hellenic Republic Asset Development Fund (HRADF) and the Bank of Greece.
  • Introduce a new ‘stable, simple and fair’ tax system and fight corruption and tax evasion.
  • Introduce a comprehensive reform of Greece’s public sector.

Friday, February 13, 2015

When the leaders of three nations meet without ANY advisors for two hours and nothing good can be said, things are very very bad.  War? If it comes it would be the most foolish of wars ever fought.
It would only splinter the world and societies further. None predicted at the beginning of WWI that monarchies would be destroyed. That a new era had arrived. None now predict that a war would lead to the demise of some nation states as we know them. None seem to see that it would destroy (for good or bad) the structure of the world economic system as we know it.  Ah....but fear does unite a people and economies prosper in war. Merkel & Holland, desperate to appease Putin and desperately looking to make money from Russia are trying to force a disgraceful deal through that let's Putin get away with it AGAIN and forces Ukraine to be subservient to Russian aggression AGAIN.  Forget Germany and France we know their history BUT where is the UK and USA in directing AND standing up for freedoms and democratic rights in Europe. Germany and France are so worried about being invaded and occupied by Russia they will seek any deal that is good for them, or so they think and they will try and spoil any deal where Ukraine receives real actual useful help to enable Ukraine to defend itself.
PUTIN AND RUSSIA HAVE TOLD THE GERMAN'S AND THE FRENCH THAT THEY MUST LEAVE UKRAINE IN IT'S CURRENT STATE OF MILITARY CAPABILITY or RUSSIA WILL HOLD THEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RUSSIAN EXCUSE OF ESCALLATION. 

Thursday, February 12, 2015

About Ukraine - It all started with the US spending five billion dollars to destabilise Ukraine. Then, Victoria Nuland distributed cookies in Kiev and McCain offered his support to the fascists and extremists. Then, the CIA sent its snipers to kill protesters and policemen. Then, Nuland declared "Fuck the EU". Then there was the coup and a legally elected Presidenf was ousted from power and was replaced by an illegitimate president backed by the US. The US by some kind of gymnastics made the western population believe that the new government that resulted in a bloody coup is more legitimate than a legally elected government. Then, the US congress prepared a bill to offer several billion dollars of assistance to the "legitimate" government that ousted the legally elected President by force. Then, Crimea voted to join Russia and became part of Russia. Then the proposed assistance of the US was reduced to one billion dollars. Then Eastern Ukraine voted to separate themselves fron Ukraine. The proposed assistance of the US was reduced to a couple of hundred thoysand dollars as Joe Biden announced. Then, the Director of the CIA visited Kiev and declared the whole population of Eastern Ukraine terrorist. Proshenko, who was elected President by less than 15% of the voters, lead a war against the so-called terrorists. He declared that the war against terror would be over in a couple of days. The war is still on after nine months. Then the illegitimate legitimate government used one of its plane to shoot down a commercial plane, the MH17. Meanwhile, sanctions were imposed the western countries for anything and everything. It is like applying sanctions on North Korea. Sony is hacked by its former employees, sanction North Korea. North Korea refusex to talk, sanction North Korea. North Korea talks, sanction North Korea. The same with Russia. And now the gas supply is reduced drastically and Merkel and Hollande rush to Moscow. One week ago they refused to go to Kazackstan. Now, John Kerry stands guard in Kiev, in Munich to make sure that the US f**king partners do not sleep with Russia. But Russia do not want Germany and France. It has China, India, Brazil, South Africa.Interesting to see the difference between Western reporting here and the Russian reporting.  The West still does as if rebels are responsible for the thousands of deaths and again only see their own viewpoint, while rebels or separatists see the army destroying and shelling all the time. They don't kill their own citizens in Donbass and yet it is talked about 'as if' the separatists are the only problem. Ukraine completely destroyed Donetsk Airport and still pretends the rebels invade, rather than 'contain' their own region.  Us involvement means total war as they cannot resolve anything without destruction. It gives Putin a reason to use his own troops and weapons instead of the Russian Imperial Movement and other mercenaries doing their own thing. That would mean serious stuff as Russia so far has done very little with its power. US in the meantime cannot oversee the situation as they never see or admit to their own Shadow, which is very dark as we all know.

Wednesday, February 11, 2015

(Bloomberg) -- Greek government bonds rose, with three-year yields falling the most in three weeks, after Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis backed away from a demand for a debt writedown.
Negotiations between euro-area officials and Greece’s newly-elected government remained tense, and gains made on Tuesday that were the biggest since 2012 were pared in the remainder of the week. Greece’s credit rating was cut by Standard & Poor’s after markets closed on Friday and an emergency meeting of euro-area finance chiefs is scheduled for Feb. 11 in Brussels.
“Nobody knows where this is going,” said Peter Schaffrik, London-based head of European rates strategy at Royal Bank of Canada. “We’ve had a lot of news but we haven’t really gone anywhere.” Compared with the end of last week, “the market is slightly less nervous, particularly because the issue of a unilateral default in Greece is off the table.”
Greek three-year note yields fell 115 basis points, or 1.15 percentage points, to 18 percent at the 5 p.m. London close on Friday. The 3.375 percent security due July 2017 climbed 1.835, or 18.35 euros per 1,000-euro ($1,132) face amount, to 73.02. The 10-year rate dropped 1.07 percentage points since Jan. 30 to 10.11 percent.
Greek bonds were whipsawed through the week as Varoufakis and Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras toured Europe to try to cut a new deal on repaying a rescue package agreed to in 2012. Markets surged on Tuesday, following a meeting between the finance minister and bankers at which he outlined plans to swap some debt for new securities, rather than reducing the amount owed.