The future of Europe looks bleak.

So the Germans probably don't want the deal with Greece to go ahead, but Merkel will still get it through parliament.  See, it's not the EU that is non-democratic, it's endemic in Europe.  Germany’s biggest-selling mass-market newspaper has said “Nein!” to the new bail-out deal agreed by the Eurozone for Greece.  Bild has launched a new campaign against the deal, printing a massive “NEIN!” across an entire inside page, and encouraging readers to take selfies holding the page up and send them in for publication.  “No more billions for greedy Greeks,” the newspaper adds, in only slightly smaller print. The page is printed in the blue and white of the Greek flag, instead of Bild’s more usual red and white.   With a daily circulation of some 2.5m Bild is hugely influential in German society. Though it is printed in broadsheet format – allowing for a particularly large “Nein!” – it is decidedly tabloid in tone.   Selfies of readers brandishing the “Nein!” had already begun flooding in on Thursday morning, with many holding it up in their offices or outside their homes.

Lars Riiser, a banker had stuck it to the window of his office on the upper floors of one of Frankrfurt’s skyscrapers, with a view of Germany’s financial capital behind.  Another man, Steffen Beier, brandished it out of the window of his car. Some readers took the selfie holding up iPads showing the headline instead of a newspaper.  The stunt comes ahead of a vote on the new deal in the German parliament on Friday, and is a sign of the deep resentment in many sections of German society against what is seen as being forced to bail out Greece for the profligacy of its own governments and banks yet again.   Many in Angela Merkel’s own Christian Democrat party are unhappy with the deal, and 22 MPs indicated on Thursday that they intend to defy the party whip and vote against it.  There is no chance of the deal being defeated, because Mrs Merkel’s coalition has a huge majority of several hundred, but so many defection from her own party would be a symbolic blow... Moments ago the Bank of Greece presented its latest, January, deposit data. And it's a doozy: following a record €12.2 billion monthly outflow, greater in absolute and relative terms than anything experienced during any of the previous Greek crises and bailouts, the total amount of Greek corporate and household deposits has now tumbled to just €148 billion. This number is in line with some of the more pessimistic expectations, and brings the total cash holdings at Greek banks to the lowest level since August 2005.Currently suffering the biggest bank run in history . 

Eurozone finance ministers have approved reform proposals submitted by Greece as a condition for extending its bailout by four months, officials say.  The Eurogroup said it had agreed to begin national procedures - parliamentary votes in several states to give the deal final approval.   The measures proposed by Greece include combating tax evasion and tackling the smuggling of fuel and tobacco.  The European Commission said earlier they were a "valid starting point".   Eurozone finance ministers - known as the Eurogroup - then held a conference call before giving their backing to the Greek proposals.  "We call on the Greek authorities to further develop and broaden the list of reform measures, based on the current arrangement, in close co-ordination with the institutions," the Eurogroup said in a statement.  The agreement had "averted an immediate crisis", said European Commissioner for Economic Affairs Pierre Moscovici.   "It does not mean we approve those reforms, it means the approach is serious enough for further discussion," he added.  'Lack of clear assurances' .  However, International Monetary Fund (IMF) head Christine Lagarde was quoted as expressing reservations about the reform proposals.  "In some areas like combating tax evasion and corruption I am encouraged by what appears to be a stronger resolve on the part of the new authorities in Athens," she wrote in a letter to the Eurogroup.  "In quite a few areas, however, including perhaps the most important ones, the letter is not conveying clear assurances that the government intends to undertake the reforms envisaged."

Bucharest, Romania — Outside the National Anticorruption Directorate in downtown Bucharest, more than a dozen reporters and cameramen stand around chatting. It’s a weekday afternoon, and they know it’s only a matter of time before the next high-profile Romanian shows up to face charges of corruption.  Even a few years ago, Romania's powerful and well-connected were able to line their own pockets with impunity, earning the country deserved notoriety as one of Europe's most graft-ridden nations.  But today, in a perfect storm of external pressure from the European Union and internal public anger, Romania's crackdown on corruption is almost routine. With an independent and tenacious special prosecutor's office driving the effort, the country is making dramatic strides in holding elites just as accountable as the common man.   Yet as part of the country’s ascension into the EU, which they joined in 2007 along with neighboring Bulgaria, Romania – where graft reaches to all levels of society – was required to clean up its act.  “It started because we had the right mix of external pressure from the European Commission and internal pressure from the population,” says Laura Stefan, an anticorruption expert and a former director in the Romanian Ministry of Justice.  Yet, she adds: “When this started, there was no trust in the state. A lot of people were skeptical, and it took a long time and a lot of strong cases to convince people.”  In 2003, the country established the National Anticorruption Directorate (DNA), a specialized prosecutor's office tasked with fighting corruption and graft. Initially the DNA targeted lower-level figures, but within a few years it was aiming far higher, and the number of people convicted of high-level graft of more than 10,000 euros ($11,300) has risen accordingly.  Last year 1,138 individuals, including politicians, businessmen, judges, and prosecutors, were convicted of corruption in Romania, up from 155 in 2006. This included 24 mayors, five members of parliament, two ex-ministers, and a former prime minister, not to mention seven judges and 13 prosecutors. Those convicted include politicians of all stripes, irrespective of party lines.    This year the headlines have continued to pile up. Last week Monica Iacob Ridzi, a former sports and youth minister, was sentenced to five years in prison for abuse of power and corruption. A few days earlier, a former transportation minister was also jailed, sentenced to two years for taking bribes while in office, including getting a house built for his mother free of charge.  These days Romanian news channels are fixated on the rapid fall from grace of Elena Udrea, a glamorous MP, former tourism minister, and recent presidential candidate (she finished fourth) who was arrested in mid-February on charges of money laundering, influence peddling, and taking bribes. Pundits had a field day when Ms. Udrea asked for permission to refurbish and decorate the cell she was being held in under preventive arrest.  Some 7 percent of politicians elected in 2012 have been convicted or are currently under investigation for corruption, according to estimates. The DNA’s conviction success rate is over 90 percent.  The DNA’s biggest conviction to date has been that of former Prime Minister Adrian Nastase (2000-2004), who was sentenced to four years behind bars in January 2014 for bribery and blackmail.  “Right now it is ugly, but it is a sign of progress, it shows willingness,” says Cristian Ghinea, director of the Romanian Center for European Policies, a Bucharest-based think tank.    Last November, just days after an anticorruption candidate won Romania’s latest presidential election, lawmakers were once again called to vote on a controversial amnesty bill. This one would have opened the way to releasing any inmate serving up to six years in prison for non-violent crimes – which would have included most of those serving time for corruption.  This time the vote was almost unanimously against the bill.   If there were clear-cut signs that no one is now safe from investigation, it has been in recent weeks, as first Udrea, the former presidential candidate, was arrested, and then Iulian Hertanu, the brother-in-law of Romania’s Prime Minister Victor Ponta, was detained. Mr. Hertanu was allegedly involved in embezzling funds worth around 1.75 million euros.  “The area of untouchables has gotten smaller and smaller with time,” says Ms. Stefan, the anticorruption expert.  “People are seeing for the first time, if you steal you go to jail, no matter who you are. This is the way it should be, but we need to keep the momentum.” (source  CS Monitor)

Kaiser Merkel has spoken.We must all obey!

The EU Commission has approved proposals to create a single European energy market.

The Energy Union plan would give the Commission more influence in the negotiation of gas supply contracts.  It is partly designed to reduce Europe's dependence on Russian gas, at a time of tension over the conflict in eastern Ukraine. The proposals still need to be approved by member states and the European Parliament. The Commission says they will give customers more choice, bring down prices and cut down on the use of fossil fuels.   "This is about Europe acting together, for the long term," said Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.  "I want the energy that underpins our economy to be resilient, reliable, secure and increasingly renewable and sustainable."  However critics accuse the Commission of trying to wrest control from member states, while green groups say it should be doing more to cut greenhouse gas emissions.  'More intelligently'   EU countries import 53% of their energy at a cost of around €400bn (£293bn; $454bn), according to EU figures.  Some member states take all their gas from Russia. In total, Russia supplies 23% of the EU's gas, making it Europe's biggest supplier.  But the deteriorating situation in Ukraine has led to fears of disruption to gas supplies. Russia cut off supplies to Ukraine last June in a dispute over unpaid bills, before agreeing to restore them as part of an EU-brokered deal.  "Current events show the stakes - as many Europeans fear they may not have the energy needed to heat their homes," Mr Juncker said.


 

Gold Rush ??? -A few years ago annual production was 13,000,0000 ozs,it is now 10,000,000 ozs worldwide,although figures for Russia and China are vague and possibly unreliable.We do know,however,that they do not export in any volume that which they do mine.  I have a friend ,a board member ,of a company ,that produces 1,000,000 ozs per annum.it s no secret that they have enough ore above ground for about two years production,they are ,at the moment,not mining.  Now,onto consumption,prefaced by the admission that I reside in Thailand,and I am speaking as I see the situation here and indeed the surrounding countries of S.E.Asia.  The general population buy gold to keep for weddings and the rainy day syndrome.They do not buy as an investment or for trading,the spread is too great.  The Chinese will,if the coming year is thought to be unfavourable.  India,the largest consumer, placed tax on imports a couple of years ago of  (I believe) 5%.  My question to my self at the time was answered by an Indian who was trying to come to an agreement with the company mentioned above,to no avail of course,when he reminded me of our conversation of sometime before,years in fact,when he predicted that middle class Hindu brides,say five or ten million every year,would swallow world production.  The presumption I now have confirmed to myself is that most markets are manipulated,you and I will be allowed to gamble in shares bonds and propery,because they are our decisions and will be our fault.The underpinning we used to enjoy fifteen years ago ,is no more.Good luck and God bless you all ... $1000 dollars of gold stuffed under the mattress a hundred years ago would be more valuable today than $1000 in cash stuffed under the same mattress, so people saying pieces of paper issued by a central bank are a better bet than gold are clearly talking nonsense, how are those Hapsburg thalers, Reich marks or Czarist rubles doing these days?  But, and it is a huge but, gold only retains its value in a civilized society, it is spectacularly useless when society breaks down a fact about which many gold buyers seem to be completely unaware. How the heck do you think gold coins will save your neck when the Morlocks are coming over the garden fence?  The mere fact of owning gold will mark you out for immediate attack. The first time you go to the market to buy your bag of rice with a gold sovereign is the moment your fate is sealed.  Historically Jews and other persecuted groups kept their wealth in gold as they figured it was their passport when the crisis came, all it meant was that the bad guys knew to strip them naked and steal their clothes and luggage after chasing them out while the peasants ransacked their homes looking for the secret stash.  Think of those caches of gold dug up by archeologists, which we are told were hidden to keep it safe from the Vikings and ask yourself how much use all that gold was to its original owner. 

In a letter to Jeroen Dijsselbloem, president of the eurozone finance ministers’ group, obtained by Reuters, Greece’s finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, conceded that the Greek authorities would “refrain from unilateral action that would undermine the fiscal targets, economic recovery and financial stability”.  Crucially, he said Greece would remain under the supervision of the European commission, the European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund – the unpopular troika that the Syriza-led government had insisted it would throw off.  Germany says Greek proposals for a six-month extension to its bailout programme do not go far enough .   Eurozone officials are meeting in Brussels on Thursday to assess the latest Greek proposal. Raoul Ruparel, the head of economic research at Open Europe, thinks the Greek government has little chance of getting the rest of the eurozone to back its plans on labour market reforms, pensions or privatisation.   However, in a briefing paper, he wrotethat the eurozone could give way on another one of Greece’s key demands, to allow the government to run a smaller budget surplus, so freeing up money for social spending. “The Greek election represented a tipping point, meaning that the rest of the eurozone will have to consider some tradeoffs,” he wrote.  A spokesperson for the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, said the letter was a positive sign that could pave the way for a reasonable compromise....

The Greeks were screwed to save the banks, now the banks are free, they are being screwed to save EU taxpayers and the debt just keeps on growing, how anyone thinks this makes sense I do not know....Grexit is inevitable. The only question is when, and how?  Many imagine Grexit will mean be a return to the Drachma and cheap holidays in Greece and maybe even cheap property to buy in Greece.  The reality will be very different.  You cant wind the clock back to the nineties (some DT journalists think you can!).  Most likely scenario is a semi-orderly/disorderly retreat from the Euro.  Starting this weekend with drastic capital controls to prevent a run on Greek banks next week , in the run up to the 28 Feb deadline.  Followed by either a cut in Govt spending (unlikely) or IOU’s and delayed payments for /salaries /pensions/ contracts from the Greek govt.(more likely)
Reason being the Greek Govt budget is already at -12% at end of last year - they are bankrupt  and this is set to go higher - Greek taxpayers aren’t paying their taxes …they are stuffing their spare Euros in offshore accounts or under the mattress, plus the social spending promised by Syriza– rehiring public employees, pensions at 50, free energy for some (the ones who voted for them).   The introduction of capital transfer controls and IOU’s by Greek Govt will be de facto exit from Euro , although officially Greece wont leave the Euro and cant be kicked out… instead a dual currency economy will exist.   You will still pay for your holiday in Greece this year in Euros… nothing will change for those parts of the Greek economy which are productive and competitive. Likewise real assets like property will keep their Euro value.   A situation much like Cambodia for example – a third world country but with a competitive tourist industry. Tourists pay in Dollars and get dollars from ATM’s , but every time they pay with foreign currency they get their small change in local currency …ending up with a pile of useless local currency at the end of the holiday.
Unproductive parts of the Greek economy – public employees, pensioners, unemployed and the poor will have to use local, depreciating currency on a hand to mouth basis, like all banana republic currencies.  But if you are a Brit- look on the bright side - the depreciation in the Euro , primarily due  to this Greek fiasco, will result in holidays being 10-15% cheaper in2015 , as compared to 2014….