Showing posts with label obligatiuni. Show all posts
Showing posts with label obligatiuni. Show all posts

Friday, March 13, 2015

Clearly there are some who have not realized the new economic tectonic shift in power towards the East.  The U.S. has an unpayable debt of nearly 200 TRILLION dollars, when you include unfunded liabilities.  The western shadow banking system is hiding over a 1000 TRILLION in derivatives, that have zero backing.  The plain truth is that Russia is dependent on sales of a product that will NEVER recover to its old price level.   $60 a barrel is the new norm.  This is a disaster for the Russian economy.  The prosperity it enjoyed in the days of $100+ a barrel are gone forever.
And worse times are coming for Russia as the Little Russian Psychopath persists with his grossly transparent plan to get a secure land route from Russia to Crimea through puppet "republics" in Soutern Ukraine... RBS, which maintains an office in Russia, said in its full-year results that it had “reduced limits to customers affected by [sanctions], including tightening transactional controls to mitigate credit risk while ensuring sanctions compliance”, and that it had placed restrictions on new business in the country. Its net exposure fell by £120m last year to £1.8bn, around half of which is fully hedged. While half of RBS’s loans to the country are to corporates, most of Barclays’ exposure is to the financial sector. The retreats represent a major pull-back for Britain’s banks in Russia, after a pre-crisis investment splurge. In 2008, at the height of the banking boom, Barclays paid £373m for Expobank, before selling it for an undisclosed sum in 2011. In the same year, HSBC closed its retail banking operations in the country, having opened them just two years earlier. Other banks cut funding last year, including the French bank Société Générale, which is one of the largest foreign lenders in the country.

Thursday, February 26, 2015

Gold Rush ??? -A few years ago annual production was 13,000,0000 ozs,it is now 10,000,000 ozs worldwide,although figures for Russia and China are vague and possibly unreliable.We do know,however,that they do not export in any volume that which they do mine.  I have a friend ,a board member ,of a company ,that produces 1,000,000 ozs per s no secret that they have enough ore above ground for about two years production,they are ,at the moment,not mining.  Now,onto consumption,prefaced by the admission that I reside in Thailand,and I am speaking as I see the situation here and indeed the surrounding countries of S.E.Asia.  The general population buy gold to keep for weddings and the rainy day syndrome.They do not buy as an investment or for trading,the spread is too great.  The Chinese will,if the coming year is thought to be unfavourable.  India,the largest consumer, placed tax on imports a couple of years ago of  (I believe) 5%.  My question to my self at the time was answered by an Indian who was trying to come to an agreement with the company mentioned above,to no avail of course,when he reminded me of our conversation of sometime before,years in fact,when he predicted that middle class Hindu brides,say five or ten million every year,would swallow world production.  The presumption I now have confirmed to myself is that most markets are manipulated,you and I will be allowed to gamble in shares bonds and propery,because they are our decisions and will be our fault.The underpinning we used to enjoy fifteen years ago ,is no more.Good luck and God bless you all ... $1000 dollars of gold stuffed under the mattress a hundred years ago would be more valuable today than $1000 in cash stuffed under the same mattress, so people saying pieces of paper issued by a central bank are a better bet than gold are clearly talking nonsense, how are those Hapsburg thalers, Reich marks or Czarist rubles doing these days?  But, and it is a huge but, gold only retains its value in a civilized society, it is spectacularly useless when society breaks down a fact about which many gold buyers seem to be completely unaware. How the heck do you think gold coins will save your neck when the Morlocks are coming over the garden fence?  The mere fact of owning gold will mark you out for immediate attack. The first time you go to the market to buy your bag of rice with a gold sovereign is the moment your fate is sealed.  Historically Jews and other persecuted groups kept their wealth in gold as they figured it was their passport when the crisis came, all it meant was that the bad guys knew to strip them naked and steal their clothes and luggage after chasing them out while the peasants ransacked their homes looking for the secret stash.  Think of those caches of gold dug up by archeologists, which we are told were hidden to keep it safe from the Vikings and ask yourself how much use all that gold was to its original owner. 

Monday, February 23, 2015

(Reuters) - A war of words between Greece and EU paymaster Germany escalated on Tuesday with Athens' new leftist prime minister rejecting what he called "blackmail" to extend an international bailout and vowing to rush through laws to reverse labor reforms.  A source close to the government said Greece intends to ask on Wednesday for an extension for up to six months of a loan agreement with the euro zone, on conditions to be negotiated. The source drew a distinction between a loan agreement and the full bailout program which the government insists is dead.  However hardline German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble dismissed the Greek gambit, telling broadcaster ZDF: "It's not about extending a credit program but about whether this bailout program will be fulfilled, yes or no."   Financial markets held their nerve after the latest talks among euro zone finance ministers broke down late on Monday and EU partners gave Greece until the end of the week to request an extension or lose financial assistance.   Many investors believe that whatever the rhetoric, both sides will find a face-saving formula before Athens' credit lines expire in 10 days. If they fail, Greece could rapidly run out of cash and need its own currency.  Greek banking sources said outflows of deposits increased on Tuesday after the failure of Monday's talks, but were not as severe as on some days last month around the election of a radical anti-austerity government.  The European Central Bank will review emergency funding for Greek banks on Wednesday but should not cut the lifeline this week, a source familiar with the situation said.   Both sides continue to insist Greece will remain in the euro.  Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras told lawmakers in his Syriza party that the government - elected to scrap the bailout, repeal hated austerity measures and end cooperation with the "troika" of EU, ECB and IMF lenders - would not compromise.

Saturday, September 13, 2014

There is another gloomy assessment of the world's jobs market On Tuesday. The International Labour Organisation, the World Bank, and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) have produced a labour market update for the G20 employment and labour ministers' meeting in Melbourne.
It highlights "large employment gaps remain in most G20 countries", the grouping of the world's biggest developed and emerging market economies. The authors also say that "the quality of employment remains a concern" and that "the deep global financial and economic crisis and slow recovery in many G20 countries has resulted not only in higher unemployment but also in slow and fragile wage gains for G20 workers." The paper concludes: "Seven years after the onset of the global financial and economic crisis, the economic recovery may be strengthening but remains weak and fragile. The employment challenges across most G20 countries are still very sizeable both in terms of a persistently large jobs gap and low quality of many available jobs."The current growth trajectory, if unchanged, will not create enough quality jobs – giving rise to the risk that the jobs gap will remain substantial, underemployment and informal employment will rise, and sluggish growth in wages and incomes will continue to place downward pressure on consumption, living standards and global aggregate demand. Underlining these challenges is the fact that income inequality continues to widen across the G20 countries. "The G20 commitment to boost GDP by more than 2% by 2018 over and above the baseline projections is certainly a welcome step, although it will be important to ensure that this additional growth is job-rich and inclusive"....Of course the report is gloomy - and if the present way of sharing out work is to persist it can only get gloomier. Automation is creeping through every aspect of our lives, gone way beyond the industries now and the amount of work left for humans dwindles by the day.It pays businesses to get rid of people wherever they can - people are its greatest expense. They are now commodities to be plugged in then cast aside as the profit/loss account dictates. Unless someone thinks up something soon to share out what remains of human work, the whole edifice will collapse. People unemployed? No money to spend? - No one to buy the outpourings of these factories; to buy services etc. No wonder the rich are worried about the "stagnant" economy.

Saturday, March 29, 2014

Banks with high levels of distressed debts will have to face the music eventually as interest rates return to normal and this will be the moment of highest risk for the Eurozone. The question is what will be the trigger for rates to increase - growth in the US, a credit crunch in China or war in Russia - take your pick! The deepening slowdown in emerging markets is holding back global recovery and risks fresh financial strains in Spain, Britain and other European countries with large bank exposure to the bloc, the OECD has warned.
Rintaro Tamaki, chief economist for the OECD club of rich states, said bond tapering by the US Federal Reserve has “only just begun” and threatens to trigger a fresh wave of capital flight from vulnerable parts of the emerging market nexus. “There remains a risk that capital flows could intensify,” he said.
Mr Tamaki said Spanish bank exposure to developing countries is 35pc of Spain’s GDP, mostly through the operations of Santander and BBVA in Latin America. Exposure is 21pc for Britain and 18pc for Holland. The US is largely insulated at just 3pc of GDP.
Much of Britain’s link is through lending to Chinese companies on the dollar market in Hong Kong. British-based banks account for almost a quarter of the estimated $1.1 trillion of foreign-currency loans to China.
The OECD called on the Fed to go easy on bond tapering and said the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan may have to step up stimulus to prevent the recovery faltering. This round if it really gets out of sync, would be far worse than anything previous. I have my doubts if Yellen will soften up on the tapering as she is a home baser. Vlad could knock the chessboard as EU landers stew with fiscal ferment. The Greeks will need more bailout dosh too....given the recent meetings for the 3rd bailout have stalled.
I have my doubts that Draghi can control a potential runaway situation when real asset shifting starts. The Eurozone economics aren't that sound as he makes them out to be given lander debt is rising faster.
A new "low" is coming with levies; just park ones dosh in the right place.

Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Ireland is to regain its sovereignty after three years under the thumb of the EU-IMF Troika, the first of the eurozone crisis states to return to the free market.
The crippled Celtic Tiger has been subject to intrusive controls after a banking collapse forced it to seek a €78bn loan package from the EU and the International Monetary Fund in November 2010, compelled to cut wages and inflict a fiscal squeeze of 19pc of GDP. The country will not break free of its shackles entirely. Inspectors will continue to carry out visits twice a year until 2031 “at the earliest” under a surveillance mechanism. Ireland will face binding constraints under Europe’s deflationary Fiscal Compact.  The "poster child" of EU austerity, Ireland has taken its medicine stoically without street violence or a lurch towards extremism, thanks to a close-knit tripartite system of trade unions, business and the government working together.
European officials have hailed Ireland’s recovery as a vindication of their strategy of “internal devaluation”, a policy of wage cuts aimed at clawing back lost competitiveness within monetary union. Yet it remains far from clear whether Ireland is really out of the woods or whether debt-stricken countries in southern Europe can replicate the feat. Ireland has a highly-competitive export base, akin to Asia’s tigers. It is the fruit of an industrial strategy 20 years ago that lured in American software and pharmaceutical firms, and built a financial service sector. Exports equal 108pc of GDP, compared with 39pc for Portugal, 32pc for Spain, 30pc for Italy and 27pc for Greece.  This trade "gearing" makes it far easier for Ireland to export its way out of trouble. The current account surplus is 4pc of GDP, though the Viagra and Lipitor “patent cliff” has cut exports by 17pc this year.  Ireland does not have an overvalued currency, unlike EMU’s Latin bloc. Its crisis stemmed from a credit bubble, caused by super-loose monetary policy set for German needs. Real interest rates averaged -1pc for seven years, a disaster for a young fast-growing economy.

Monday, September 9, 2013

China's National Bureau of Statistics has accused a county government in southern China of faking economic data by coercing local companies to boost industrial output figures, state media have reported. Luliang county in southern Yunnan province pressured 28 local companies to report 6.34bn Yuan (£665m) of industrial output last year, while according to "initial calculations" the true figure was less than half of that, the state newswire Xinhua reported on Thursday night. "Companies complained that if they did not fraudulently report higher data their reports would be returned by local government departments," it said, citing a National Bureau of Statistics report. "They also said that fake reports would ensure they would enjoy favorable policies such as securing bank loans."
The county government itself reported fake investment data, Xinhua added. Analysts say that phony economic data is nearly ubiquitous in China, as officials are promoted based on their ability to present favorable numbers. "You have an incentive system that encourages the falsification of data," said Fraser Howie, the co-author of Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China's Extraordinary Rise. "We known that for literally decades provincial GDP figures have never totaled the national GDP figures – you have a fundamental mismatch of those numbers." "Anybody who's working with Chinese statistics runs up against problems, inconstancies, and incomplete data," Howie added. "There are just black holes in information gathering." Howie said that while false data was a long-running national problem, Chinese authorities may launch selective crackdowns every few months to demonstrate vigilance. "It could be that this is a particularly egregious case, it could be that there's political infighting, it could be that this leaked somewhere else first," he said. He drew a parallel to President Xi Jinping's anti-corruption drive, which critics have dismissed both as lip service and as a political purge. "Its like the corruption thing – they're not going after nobody, but they're certainly not going after everybody," he said. "Yunnan is far away, nobody really goes there, nobody really cares. It's not like this happened right in Beijing, at the heart of things."

Monday, November 5, 2012

German two-year bond yields turn negative

Another sign of nerves this morning -- investors have been racing to put their money into German two-year government bonds, a classic 'safe-haven'.
That has driven up the value of the bonds, and pushed down the yield (the measure of the interest paid on the bonds) into negative territory. German two-year bonds are now yielding just -0.01%, as this Bloomberg graph shows:
German two-year bond yield
A negative yield means that buyers are effectively paying for the privilege of holding the bonds.

Friday, October 12, 2012

A pathetic gesture by a group of Nordic Europhiles intended to boost EU morale in dark times.

Has the committee which runs the Nobel Peace Prize been infiltrated by satirists or opponents keen on discrediting the organisation? Norwegian radio reports this morning, carried by Reuters, suggested that the European Union is to be awarded the prize for supposedly keeping the peace in Europe for the last sixty years. Was this a Nordic spoof? Apparently not.
It is only a few years since President Obama was ludicrously awarded the Nobel peace prize for winning the 2008 election and not being George Bush. Since then Mr Obama has continued the war in Afghanistan, stepped up drone attacks and got America involved in Libya's bloody revolution, suggesting that it is better to hand out baubles after someone has finished their job rather than when they are just getting started or are half way through. Incidentally, the same stricture should have applied to bankers honoured by New Labour when they were still running banks which later blew up.
Giving the EU a peace prize is at best premature, like knighting Sir Fred Goodwin in the middle of the mad boom. We have no idea how the experiment to create an anti-democratic federation will end. Hopefully the answer is very peacefully, but when Greek protesters are wearing Nazi uniforms, and Spanish youth unemployment is running at 50 per cent, a look at history suggests there is always the possibility of a bumpy landing.
Daftest of all is the notion that the EU itself has kept the peace. It was the Allies led by the Americans, the Russians and the British who defeated and disarmed the Germans in 1945. The German people then underwent the most extraordinary reckoning, transforming their country into an essentially pacifist society. The EU had very little to do with it. Throughout that period it was Nato, led by the Americans and British, which kept the peace in Western Europe. The American taxpayer picked up most of the resulting tab, and the British paid a significant part of the bill too.
Under this defence umbrella, the federalists who wanted to reconstruct the notion of Carolingian Empire which dominated 9th century Europe, created what we have come to know and love as the EU. Of course there are advantages in what they constructed – the single market and easier travel, making the South of France and Tuscany more accessible. But they also built an appallingly designed single currency, a horlicks of an agricultural policy and rapacious bureaucracy determined to stifle the nation state in the name of utopian, unachievable continent-wide homogeneity. And at every turn those driving it looked for ways to outwit the democratic will.
It is said that those in charge of the Nobel Peace Prize have made their latest award to distract attention from the eurozone crisis, which only adds a further surreal twist. The last year or so in Europe has been marked by demonstrations and extensive European rioting. There are words one can use to describe what is going on, but "peaceful" isn't one of them.(By

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

The ECB's U-turn on buying Spanish and Italian bonds may suggest that the eurozone's financial establishment is edging towards fiscal union. But don't confuse a shuffle, performed over a weekend in the midst of a crisis, with the real thing. German public opinion will continue to dictate chancellor Angela Merkel's freedom to act. Will the ECB “sterilize” its purchases?... So far, the ECB has said it isn’t printing euros to run its secondary-market bond buying program (which has been going for more than a year for Greece, Ireland and Portugal). That’s because for every euro it spends on government bonds, it vacuums up a euro–thus there’s no net increase in liquidity. Up to now, the ECB has done this every week by taking in deposits; the volume is now at €74 billion. Can the ECB continue to do this if the volume is several times bigger? We are somewhere in Act IV or V of the euro-zone debt drama, but, lo!, the European Central Bank has descended, deus ex machine, to buy Italian and Spanish bonds. This is a major, major development. Here are three things to consider. How long will it last?.... The ECB very much did not want this role of crisis-fighter of last resort. For months, it had agitated for euro-zone governments to seize the mantle. The governments’ attempt, at the July 21 summit, was judged too little by markets, and the rout of Italy commenced. The governments then made clear they weren’t interrupting their August holidays to do anything else before the fall, and so the crisis was left to the folks in Frankfurt. Look for them to try hard come September to hand it off to Paris, Berlin and Brussels. This is the crux of the euro-zone tug-of-war: Do the governments of the strong countries tax their citizens to pay for the rescue? Or does the ECB create euros to pay for it?

Sunday, February 20, 2011

BERLIN - The succession of European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet will not be a topic at this week's Group of 20 meeting and will be dealt with after March, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Friday. "We will then see (if there will be a German candidate). The important thing is that we will have a good candidate," Schaeuble added in an interview with German radio channel Deutschlandfunk.BCE,EURO,Dollar,RON,Crisis Agerpres, Mediafax
FRANKFURT - Emergency borrowing from the European Central Bank remained exceptionally elevated for a second straight day on Friday, intensifying speculation that one or more euro zone bank might be facing new funding problems. ECB figures showed banks borrowed more than 16 billion euros in high-cost emergency overnight funding, the highest amount since June 2009 and well above the 1.2 billion euros which banks were taking before the figure first jumped on Thursday. The ECB gives no breakdown of the borrowing figures and declined to comment on Friday when asked for an explanation for the jump. Traders remained unsure whether the spike was due to a serious funding issue or whether a bank had simply made an error earlier in the week by not borrowing enough at the ECB's regular weekly funding handout. If a bank, or number of banks, did not get enough funding, and were unable to make up the difference in open markets, they would be forced to use the ECB's emergency facility until the next ECB tender came around. The next ECB offering is on Tuesday, banks get the money on Wednesday, meaning any change would evident in figures published early on Thursday. "As no bank or banking group from any euro zone country is aggressively seeking money in the interbank market at the moment, it is likely that something went wrong at the main refinancing operation," said one euro zone money market trader. "The bank or banking group needs to tap the ECB for the money whether they like it or not, or they are doing that so as not to appear active on the money market and to thereby be stigmatized," he added

European bank shares were down 1 percent by 1100 GMT while the euro fell against the dollar and other major currencies for much of the morning. Money markets showed little reaction, however. Key euro bank-to-bank lending prices remained on a downward trajectory, a direction traditionally at odds with rising tensions. The theory that the spike was due to human error appeared to be supported by data from the ECB's latest weekly funding operation. Banks borrowed the lowest amount since June at the tender, 19 billion euros less than the previous week and well below expected demand of around 160 billion euros.

However, a monetary source in Italy, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters that the increase in borrowing was not a technical problem and was a sign that money markets were still not functioning correctly and geographically split in the wake of the global financial crisis. The source said the Italian banking system continued to have good access to money markets, while high-level Spanish financial source said the jump was not down to Spanish banks. The borrowing jump added extra complexity to the question of whether the ECB will scale back, or extend, its money market support measures at its next meeting on March 3.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said in a recent interview that the health of money markets had improved, although Belgium's Guy Quaden said this week liquidity support remained necessary. "If the increased use of the marginal borrowing facility is due to new problems in the banking system this would call for an extension of the ECB's liquidity support," said UniCredit analyst Luca Cazzulani. "The ECB knows exactly who is borrowing the money and why they are doing it. If it is due to a mistake then it should not influence their thinking at all." The extra 0.75 percent which banks have to pay for overnight funding from the ECB normally means it is used only as a last resort. The last time before this week that overnight borrowing exceeded 10 billion euros was on June 24, 2009, when it was 28.7 billion euros, the highest ever. This year, emergency overnight borrowing has been above 1 billion euros only twice. Traders said while mistyping the required amount or missing the ECB's tender altogether would be an unlikely mistake, it could happen. "It would be a huge oversight and pretty unlikely but it is possible if a lot of things conspired against you," said one London-based money market trader. "If it is a mistake then someone's boss is not going to be very happy." A number of banks, mainly from the euro zone's most debt-strained countries but also troubled banks in core countries, remain barred from open money markets and almost completely dependent on the ECB for funding.

Monday, January 17, 2011

In the past three years, over 52% of Fondul Poprietatea (FP) shares changed hands, according to data published by the Central Despository, with the value of transactions amounting to over 600 million euros, considering the prices thrown around the market. Transactions with Fondul Proprietatea (FP) shares boomed in the past year, after the appointment of American group Franklin Templeton as fund manager and the fund's Stock Exchange listing became a certainty. Around 30% of the shares changed hands in 2010. The estimated value of transactions, based on average prices thrown around the market, amounts to nearly 2 billion RON = over 460 million euros), accounting for 35% of the overall volume traded on the Stock Exchange. Foreign funds, SIFs (financial investment companies) and local speculators last year loaded their portfolios with Fondul Proprietatea shares, investing tens of millions of euros in the hope that the Stock Exchange listing will bring the price of shares up. For all these investors, the stake of listing Fondul Proprietatea is huge. The prices at which FP shares were traded last year fluctuated between 0.25 RON at the beginning of the year, and highs of around 0.6 RON in September, prior to dividend distribution. The fund's net asset value (NAV) is currently around 1.11 RON, according to FP reports.euro, criza datoriilor de stat, euroscepticismul, monede nationale, renuntarea la euro, salvare euro, zona euro