Saturday, October 31, 2015

Britain's financial stability could be threatened by closer eurozone integration unless the UK secures safeguards from Brussels that protect the interests of non-members, the Governor of the Bank of England has warned. Although Carney pre-warned his speech was a bit of a yawner I listened to every word SkyNews broadcast (they cut away after it became clear he was being VERY cautious in the way he was laying out the economic pros and cons) and my takeaway actually was he was tiptoe saying being out was in our best interests at this point given the reference to the Treaty of Rome (without a mention of the Treaty of Lisbon that has caused so d*mn trouble) and the way he kept saying safeguards to protect Britain and other non-Eurozone member states had to be in place.
Seriously, let's face it - what are the real odds Brussels will ever agree to any real economic reforms that will not go against the UK and other non-Eurozone members, really?!  I have to say I was impressed by the way he walked that razors edge, and not at all surprised he seemed to feel he had to give the facts, appear to be carefully endorsing our staying in the EU whilst really saying staying is too dangerous (references to various EU laws that clearly act against Britain's best interests)...There is absolutely no prospect that the EU will remain a multi-currency zone. As the EU moves towards economic union - and the French are pressing for swifter progress - all member states will be required to adopt the euro. That includes the UK and Carney know this. Are we to deduce that he favours Britain's joining the EZ which will require all the pain on the UK's part of synchronising its economic cycle with that of Europe that Brown and Balls judged would be politically unacceptable?  The Eurozealots want and need economic union because they believe it will be the last and essential step towards guaranteeing the survival of the single currency, putting it beyond the reach of future crises.  It's implicit in the Inners case, led by David Cameron, that eventual membership of this "safe" euro is precisely what they have in mind and that they will use a referendum vote in favour of staying in the EU as a mandate. There will be no opt outs for Britain or anyone else under economic union and the political union that will follow which will cement in place Brussels' complete usurpation of all meaningful national sovereignty. Carney is aware also that it is the dearest ambition of the Berlin, Brussels, Paris axis that will determine the terms of economic union to bring the City under full EU control. Economic union will be about harmonising all aspects of economic and financial policy across the entire EU. The City will be harmonised along with everything else.  Again, as I listened, my takeaway was he actually was saying staying in will expose Britain to grave economic dangers. It didn't change my mind at all - I have been hoping to tick the NO-LEAVE NOW box for years, decades in fact, ever since ticking that box back in the day.

Friday, October 30, 2015

"We are open to a whole menu of monetary policy instruments," Mr Draghi said, noting that further interest rate cuts had been discussed. "The discussion was wide open."" Sounds like he has Yellen's Disease, but printing money is always the solution for the left to fix fiscal abnormalities... “The ECB will almost certainly be delivering an early Christmas present this year,” said Nick Kounis, the head of markets and macro research at investment bank ABN Amro. Draghi is an enthusiastic proponent of “forward guidance”, the strategy of sending strong verbal policy signals in order to shift financial markets – in this case, driving down the euro.  His dramatic pledge in the summer of 2012 – in the middle of the Greek debt crisis – that the ECB would do “whatever it takes” to save the single currency helped to reassure panic-stricken investors. Jeremy Cook, the chief economist of international payments company World First, said ECB policymakers were likely to have become increasingly concerned in recent weeks about the strengthening of the currency, which makes eurozone goods less competitive on international markets. “Draghi and the executive council couldn’t have been clearer that additional policy easing was coming if they’d had the words ‘sell the euro’ tattooed on their faces,” he said. Euro area GDP rose 0.4% in the second quarter of 2015, a slight slowdown from 0.5% growth in the previous quarter. We must all call attention to the salient fact that the EU, US, UK and Japan are riding along using debt to sustain their economies. QE and other nostrums directly related to money printing thus monetizing the debt must be clearly understood...A number of reasons they do this:
1) kicking the can in the hope some visionary guides us to economic enlightenment before the global economy implodes in it's entirety
2) this is simply a response to the US' decision not to raise rates as well as the Yuan's devaluation a number of months ago. Given the Euro depends on exports, a weaker Euro will prop up the currency. Make no mistake, we're at war, a currency war
3) this is also being pushed as a solution by those who seek to gain the most, ie banks and investment funds. Governments in the aforementioned states are too large and expensive, too inefficient, too prone to spend without consideration of how the debt is affected by the deficits and too prone to call for more taxation in every case where they run short of money.So now it is completely safe to say that the relationship between stocks and underlying fundamentals now NO LONGER EXISTS.
No if's, no maybe's, just absolute fact. Stock valuations are entire fiction. The entire purpose of the Fed / ECB / BoE/ BoJ is to make something levitate. What they cannot do is make anyone with a brain believe a word of it. It is almost game over, pension fund over, banking system over, savings over.  Quantitative easing is not the answer, reality is the answer. Let's just accept that our standard of living is going to fall. QE will delay it and make matters worse, facing reality on the other hand will ensure that the fall in our standard of living will happen now, but won't be as painful in the future when compared to the QE option. The reality is - Too much debt
One of the three following options are open to the central planners.
1. QE for as long as possible - outcome - Dreadful economic future.
2. Attempt to reduce the deficit to zero by the end of this Parliament. - outcome - significant reduction of our standard of living and civil unrest.
3. Attempt to reduce the deficit over a long period of time, bearing in mind the paradox of thrift will make this a slow and relatively painful process, but from my point of view, this is the best option open to us.  A tipping point passed many years ago, we needed brave politicians dealing with the debt issue. However. I can understand why politicians did not grasp the nettle, a fickle public would not vote for them, after all, who wants harsh reality.

Thursday, October 29, 2015

Well, Deutsche Bank, VW, immigrant welcome mat manufacture rates down, Mother Merkel beatification questioned. Bit bumpy huh!...Deutsche Bank has unveiled plans to split-up its struggling investment banking operations as part of a shake-up which will see the departure of a host of senior executives. The bank, which employs more than 8,000 people in the UK, said Colin Fan, who was co-head of the investment bank, has resigned, while Michele Faissola, the head of the asset and wealth management business, will also leave. Stefan Krause, who was Deutsche’s finance chief until earlier this year, is also departing at the end of the month. Stephan Leithner, currently a member of the lender’s management board, is quitting to join private equity house EQT ... The dramatic overhaul is part of a plan by John Cryan, who became co-chief executive in July, to revive the lender’s fortunes. As well as the personnel changes, Deutsche said that its investment bank, which is Europe’s largest, will be divided into two divisions: a new unit called Global Markets, comprising sales and trading activities, and another called Corporate & Investment Banking, incorporating its corporate finance and global transactions banking operations. The shake-up comes less than a fortnight after the bank revealed that it would slump to a €6.2bn loss during its third quarter. The huge loss was driven by a €5.8bn impairment charge that Deutsche blamed on a higher capital requirements, which hit the value of the investment bank, and a write-down of its Postbank business, which is being sold.

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

The Eurozone has no fire-power to strengthen. QE has failed because they are already mired deep in a Japanese style deflation trap to which there is no easy escape. Draghi's peashooter has allowed them to standstill for a few months and nothing more.  The only thing to be done now is to forcibly devalue the currency and drive it through dollar parity as policy. This is what is necessary to re-establish inflation and growth on the continent.  This would be European style economics but may be the only way to save the euro. It must be done now though. The alternative is a slow death and definitely lose the euro.  My bet is that the Europhiles cannot face up to what they have done and will therefore opt to do nothing. So it will be the slow death then...the Central Banks are in trouble...and relying on Draghi's monthly or quarterly QE payroll. It's as simple as that. Deflation will hit their books hard. Notice the pressure on Banks to impose charges, more now than ever before. As for Deutsche Bank; it's all their satellites that will feel the pinch....something that Merkel has overlooked at her peril....There is no money. Nobody can buy anything so nobody can sell anything so there is no growth and all kinds of social bills still to be paid through more borrowing along with all the previous debt service costs. Reciprocal debt forgiveness: for some nations temporary retreat from an utterly inappropriate €conomic instrument used as a political weapon that has failed on both battlefields: sustainable, as equable as possible, benefit reduction and an opening of the democracy door to all of the peoples with the same voting weight at all levels are the only answers now. But I think the burden is too great and it is too late, especially with the utterly divisive irritant of the imperial court's decrees on immigration to add to the stew....The ECB printing up more trillions of fiat currency to lavish on their .1% cronies in the financial sector "to combat deflation" (and buy up the distressed assets of the increasingly pauperized middle and working classes at fire sale prices) - my, how groundbreaking.  Remind me again of the clinical definition of insanity.

Tuesday, October 27, 2015

OOHHH - YESSS - Another step in the collapse of the euro....

Poland consolidated its rightwing shift on Sunday as exit polls showed voters had handed an absolute majority in its parliamentary election to Law and Justice, a Eurosceptic party that is against immigration, wants family-focused welfare spending and has threatened to ban abortion and in-vitro fertilisation.  The current ruling party, Civic Platform, conceded defeat following the first exit poll, published by Ipsos moments after polling stations closed at 9pm (8pm GMT), which gave the national conservative Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (Law and Justice party) 39.1% of the vote, putting it far ahead of Civic Platform on 23.4%.  JarosÅ‚aw KaczyÅ„ski, Law and Justice’s chairman and the twin brother of Poland’s late president Lech, immediately declared victory...the result would give Law and Justice 242 seats in the 460-member lower house of parliament, meaning the party could govern alone and that its lead candidate, 52-year-old Beata SzydÅ‚o, is likely to be appointed prime minister...“If Law and Justice end up governing alone with an allied president, Poland will become another Hungary,” said Prof RadosÅ‚aw Markowski of the Polish Academy of Sciences, a reference to the extremist rightwing views of the Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán...Most of Europe is moving to the Right. Euroscepticism and anti-immigration feelings are running at an all-time high.  Even in liberal nations like Sweden where the politicians are grimly trying to maintain open door policies, the ordinary citizens are heading in another direction entirely, and showing their distaste for such policies by burning down refugee camps and (regrettably) going into schools and killing immigrants.  Merkel is becoming increasingly isolated and reviled - even by many German citizens.  If ever proof was needed that multiculturalism is a failed social experiment - we now have it writ large. I feel a BREXIT coming on. And it feels good....HAHAHA...Merkel should threaten Poland with Pexit until they learn to vote in the correct party.

Monday, October 26, 2015

Portugal's Socialist party is poised to form a left-wing alliance with the eurosceptic radical Left in a bid to become the country's new government. Following an election stalemate in which the opposition Socialists came in second place to the incumbent conservatives, leader Antonio Costa has said he is ready to strike up an alliance to become the country's new prime minister.  Mr Costa - whose party is on the moderate Left and supports Portugal's membership of the euro - has been making overtures to extreme Leftist parties who saw a surprising surge in October's general election. The eurosceptic Left Bloc and Communist Party both received 10.2pc and 8.3pc of the national vote share respectively. However, Mr Costa has affirmed that he will only head up an alliance that would pursue policies that will keep the country in the euro, four years after it received an €78bn international bail-out. "Although the negotiations are obviously still underway, at this moment, everything indicates that the Socialist Party is in better condition to be able to lead a more stable government solution,” said Mr Costa, a former mayor of Lisbon...The continuing Eurosceptic growth should arrive as no surprise. It is currently being fueled by Merkel's open door policy to economic migrants. How many times do we see images of purported Syrian refugees, on our television screens, made up mostly of young delinquent looking men who hardly look Syrian? Not long ago, on our television screens, a report of mongoloid and negro looking economic migrants where heralded as Syrian refugees. It should be very clear that this migration crisis is being orchestrated to fill the purported aging working population with young economic migrants. The EU, if it continues with this UN backed project, will perish as will the Vatican's current Communist Pope.

Sunday, October 25, 2015

The European Central Bank is expected to hint at fresh stimulus measures to ward off the threat of deflation when it holds its next monetary policy meeting on Thursday.  This week’s gathering takes place in Malta, under the governing council’s policy of occasionally departing from its Frankfurt HQ to visit other areas of the eurozone.  But although the location will be different, the event will be dominated by familiar concerns after the region’s inflation rate fell below zero last month, to -0.1%, for the first time since March.  City economists predict that ECB president Mario Draghi will repeat his pledge from September to add more stimulus if needed. However, few expect decisive action this week.  “The ECB’s October meeting is for watching. Draghi’s message will be dovish, but it’s not time to act yet”, said Holger Sandte, chief European analyst at Nordea Bank.  The ECB is currently committed to buying €60bn (£40bn) of government and corporate bonds each month until September 2016, in an €1.1tn attempt to stimulate growth, inflation and bank lending.  But last week, ECB policymaker Ewald Nowotny declared that it was “quite obvious” that additional instruments would be needed, as the ECB is now “clearly missing” its inflation target.  Nowotny’s comments mean that “further ECB stimulus as soon as next Thursday certainly cannot be ruled out,” said Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight.  Capital Economics’s Jonathan Loynes said that ECB will boost its QE firepower €80bn a month in December, but does not totally rule out an announcement this week.
The eurozone’s return to negative inflation is driven by cheaper energy costs, which fell 8.9% year-on-year following the tumble in oil prices. This countered a 1.2% rise in service sector prices, and a 1.4% rise in food, alcohol and tobacco costs.