Sunday, December 6, 2015

If the British public were to vote to leave the European Union it would be the modern equivalent of the toppling of the Berlin Wall and herald the beginning of the end for the bloc, says Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s National Front. In a week when Denmark rejected “more Europe” in their latest EU referendum, and David Cameron was rebuffed in Brussels over his demands to cut welfare benefits to newly arrived EU workers, the new, softer face of France’s far-Right is clearly dreaming big. “Brexit would be marvelous - extraordinary - for all European peoples who long for freedom,” she told The Telegraph on Friday on a frantic last day of campaigning ahead of Sunday's regional elections in France where the polls put her party on the cusp of a new electoral breakthrough. “Objectively, it will be the beginning of the end of the European Union,” she adds, “I compare Brussels to the Berlin Wall. If Great Britain knocks down part of the wall, it’s finished, it’s over.”  And if Britain did knock a hole in the European project, then Ms Le Pen, with her hardline anti-immigrant, anti-Europe, anti-globalisation mantra wants to be there in 2017, leading France through the breach. For her, that real road to power begins on Sunday when, if polls are correct, Ms Le Pen’s party could emerge as the first-round winners in as many as six of France’s 13 new “super-regions”, a showing that she is already touting as a launch-pad for a serious run at the French presidency in 2017. In round two, she is widely expected to clinch control of the northern Nord-Pas de Calais-Picardie region. Down South, her niece, Marion Maréchal-Le Pen, 25, stands a high chance of clinching France’s second largest region, Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur. The FN could also triumph in Alsace-Lorraine-Champagne-Ardenne, Burgundy-Franche Comté and Normandy.
The International Monetary Fund has  given the yuan a historic vote of confidence when it included the Chinese currency in its elite club of major currencies. The yuan, also known as the renminbi, is widely expected to be added to the IMF’s group of international reserve currencies after an IMF meeting held by its managing director Christine Lagarde.   It comes after lengthy efforts by Chinese officials to legitimise the yuan, which critics say has been kept artificially cheap to artificially boost exports in the world’s second-largest economy. China has lobbied hard for the currency to be included in the list, which at present is made up of just the dollar, the euro, the pound and the Japanese yen. The list has not been altered since 2000, when the euro replace the franc and deutschmark. While being a part of the club carries no particular conditions, and is largely symbolic, the yuan will contribute to the value of the special drawing right – a weighted average of the currencies – which the IMF uses to price its emergency loans...More significant is the diplomatic legitimacy that inclusion will grant the yuan, whose value is carefully managed by Chinese authorities. Officials devalued it over the summer in a shock move to respond to slowing growth, but it is still seen as tightly controlled with the country’s central bank lacking transparency. Being included in the IMF basket will draw additional scrutiny and see officials encouraged to open up the currency at the same time that China faces economic slowdown, which could put the brakes on reform.  Although the decision is expected to be announced today, the yuan will not officially become a reserve currency until September 2016.

Saturday, December 5, 2015

Confidence among shoppers in Germany has dipped according to a survey, amid worries over Europe's largest economy.  The forward-looking GfK consumer sentiment indicator fell to 9.3 points for December from 9.4 points in the previous month.  The score is the lowest since February, but was above analysts' predictions.   Confidence in the economy among German consumers dropped for the sixth consecutive month, although the pace reduced.  Concern about the labour market led the way, according to the survey of 2,000 shoppers, with 69% of all those surveyed expecting an increase in unemployment due to the influx of asylum seekers this year.   This month's survey was conducted before the attacks in Paris on 13 November.  In contrast to general sentiment, optimism for making a big purchase improved, with the sub-index for willingness to buy climbing by three points to 48.9.
GfK analyst Rolf Buerkl said he was optimistic for this year's Christmas sales, as customers might be tempted to shop online if they are concerned for public safety.  "It is possible that a few people here and there will avoid going to the Christmas market or visiting a shopping mall," Mr Buerkl said.

Friday, December 4, 2015

Sixteen Romanian energy projects are included by the European Commission on the list of projects of common interest (PCI) to achieve the objectives of the Energy Union, according to the first annual report on this initiative. By including them on the list, projects are eligible for funding via Connecting Europe financing facility.  European Commissioner for Climate and Energy, Arias Cañete, said at the launch of the report: “A modern and reliable energy infrastructure is an essential element for the energy to circulate freely in Europe. All these projects will support the integration of energy markets, will diversify sources and supply routes and will end the isolation of some Member States. Our funds, invested in these projects, will serve the goal of providing to all Europeans clean energy at affordable prices.” Maroš Šefčovič, Vice-President responsible for energy union, said: “After nine months, we can say with confidence that we did not strayed from the path to realize the Energy Union. My messages for 2016 are clear. First, the EU should continue to play a leading role in the transition to a low carbon economy. Second, this transition should be socially equitable and focused on the consumer. Third, geopolitical challenges that we faced this year will not disappear. Also, 2016 will be the year when we will establish a robust system of governance, ensuring predictability and transparency, the environment that investors need. In conclusion, 2016 will be a year of accomplishments!”

Thursday, December 3, 2015

There are three parallels between the Eurozone and the migration crises: the hybrid nature of European governance structures that are little prepared to face up to major external challenges; the preeminence of Germany as a key player; and the important role of a peripheral country – Greece – as a conduit for an external challenge that is becoming an internal crisis.  These issues will determine whether and how the EU will overcome the refugee crisis. They are also, all the same, the areas in which the EU’s capacities have been most stretched by the Eurozone crisis.  First, much as the Eurozone, Schengen reflects the willingness of EU member-states to cooperate in an area that touches upon the core of national sovereignty (border control), but without fully delegating decision-making and legislative and regulatory initiatives to a supranational agency (like the Commission in ‘first pillar’ policies). While the involvement of the Commission can be significant, political impetus requires intergovernmental agreement while effective implementation relies on national policies, in border control as much as macroeconomic policy. This makes both structures slow in responding to external challenges.

Wednesday, December 2, 2015

Stocks plunge by as much as 6pc as markets hit by regulatory probe and fresh fears over stability of the financial sector .. China's stock market plunged on Friday after several brokerage firms said they were being investigated by regulators over securities violations.
The Shanghai Composite Index fell by as much as 6.14pc to 3,412.43, while the Shenzhen composite, which tracks stocks on China's second exchange, tumbled 6.66pc, to 2,170.73.
Citic Securities and Guosen Securities plunged by the daily limit of 10pc in Shanghai after admitting they were under investigation for alleged rule violations.
Reports in the media suggested Haitong Securities was also being probed as the shares were suspended on Friday. Experts have called time on China's three-decade growth miracle, as the economy makes the delicate transition towards domestic consumption from investment-led growth. Official figures show growth fell to a six-year low of 6.9pc in the third quarter.