Monday, January 19, 2015

Top 10 Imports to USA
1. Oil: $389.3 billion (16.7% of total US imports)
2. Machines, engines, pumps: $311.2 billion (13.4%)
3. Electronic equipment: $303.5 billion (13%)
4. Vehicles: $253.3 billion (10.9%)
5. Medical, technical equipment: $72.1 billion (3.1%)
6. Gems, precious metals, coins: $67 billion (2.9%)
7. Pharmaceuticals: $63.4 billion (2.7%)
8. Organic chemicals: $54.7 billion (2.3%)
9. Furniture, lighting, signs: $51.4 billion (2.2%)
10. Plastics: $46.5 billion (2%)

In 2013, total U.S. trade with foreign countries was $5.02 trillion. This consisted of $2.272 trillion in exports and $2.744 trillion in imports of both goods and services. This makes the U.S. the world's third largest exporter, after the European Union (EU) and China, and the world's second largest importer, after the EU.
America is in the Global Economy. If cutoff, it would most likely collapse pretty quickly.
The markets are correct to worry about a slowdown, because the main reason for the fall in oil prices is simply a lack of demand, possibly supplemented by some geopolitical shenanigans.
Whilst the fall in the price of petrol and diesel is to be welcomed, these low crude oil prices are unlikely to last, and will depend on how much financial pain oil producing nations and energy companies can stand. Beyond 12 months or thereabouts too many energy companies will have, or be in the process of going bust. To delay bankruptcy, many energy companies are already cutting back on investment in newer more expensive sources of oil, especially for US oil shale where rig counts are already falling as US Rig Count Continues To Plunge To 10-Month Lows reveals. If this reduction in supply capacity goes too far it will result in future shortage and higher prices.
These low prices are a mixed blessing so make the most of them while they last.

Sunday, January 18, 2015

....and a lot of BS - since the "FED" pumped trillions of dollars in the Bundesbank in the last 3 years

Germany has balanced its budget for the first time in more than 40 years, and pressed eurozone partners to follow its austere example rather than try to stimulate their stagnant economies with borrowing or central bank money-printing.   Berlin had aimed to achieve the so-called "schwarze Null" (zero deficit) this year, but strong tax revenues and lower debt service costs due to rock-bottom interest rates helped it meet the goal a year early in 2014, the finance ministry said.   It is the first time Germany has balanced its budget since 1969 .  Chancellor Angela Merkel's government has rebuffed calls from EU partners, led by France and Italy, and international organizations such as the IMF and the OECD to spend some of the fiscal windfall on growth-promoting public investment.   Germany's announcement came nine days before the European Central Bank (ECB) may decide to launch large-scale purchases of eurozone government bonds in an effort to boost growth and avert deflation in the 19-nation currency area. The European Commission set out detailed rules on Tuesday for a planned €315bn investment programme over the next three years, involving no new public money in deference to German objections.  Public investment and structural reforms could win limited leeway for countries breaking EU budget rules, it said. That reduces the likelihood of tough penalties on France or Italy, the eurozone's second and third largest economies, when their fiscal plans are reviewed again in March.   Countries that put capital into a proposed European Fund for Strategic Investment would not be penalized if it tips them over the EU's deficit limit of 3pc of gross domestic product. However, those that already have an deficit in excess of the ceiling would win no indulgence.  The mood of self-congratulation in Berlin over the balanced budget made any easing of fiscal policy seem unlikely, even though the German economy is expected to slow this year. 
Far from using the leeway to invest more in creaking public infrastructure or cut taxes to stimulate weak domestic demand, politicians in Ms Merkel's conservative CDU party said the government should now focus on paying down the country's debt.

Saturday, January 17, 2015

Commenting on the UK's future in the EU, Mrs Merkel said: "We would very much like to have the UK in a strong and successful Europe."   On migrants' abuse of benefits, she said: "Abuse needs to be fought against so freedom of movement can prevail."   The German chancellor declined to comment about whether she would support or oppose any of the changes being sought by Mr Cameron.  The prime minister earlier accompanied Mrs Merkel to an exhibition on the history of Germany at the British Museum.  The five-hour visit, one of a number Mrs Merkel is making to world leaders as part of Germany's year-long presidency of the G7 group of nations, is likely to be her last to the UK before May's general election.   Mr Cameron has called for a far-reaching shake-up of welfare and employment rules across the EU, including requiring migrants to have a job offer before coming to the UK, making them wait four years before they can receive certain benefits and ending the payment of child benefit to dependents of EU migrants overseas.  He has said the proposals will, in some cases, require changes to existing treaties and therefore require the support of all 28 members - most of whom have said they are fundamentally opposed to anything will infringing the principle of the freedom of movement across the EU.  In a joint statement earlier, the two leaders said their talks would focus on tackling instability in the global economy and securing long-term growth, including the prospect of a trade deal between the EU and US.

Friday, January 16, 2015

...what a mess...now we'll see the "benefits of the EU"...

Getting the American or British or European public deeper into debt via QE bond buying schemes by their respective governments, has already put them or will put them into further "hock" for generations! And all this just to pump up "bank balance sheets" is ludicrous! It's far better to get rid of the vampires at the central banks and have governments everywhere start printing their own currency on good faith - without all the ridiculous debt!
Minimum wage, temporary jobs and wild speculation in the markets have replaced “real growth” while central banks such as the BoE, the FED, the IMF and the FED-backed ECB have created “A sow’s ear from a silk purse” when it comes to the major and minor economies of the civilized world!
The stockholders of the central banks' main concern is not the public interest or the general welfare - but to enslave Europe further into debt with the backing of the "hot air" dollar! This they have already achieved...and now they want everyone begging for QE as well! This just means more astronomical debt for all European governments and final control by the bankers!
Jackson was the only president to successfully get rid of the central bank of the United States and enjoy debt free currency for a generation. Lincoln also successfully funded the civil war with debt free currency! Kennedy also injected billions of debt-free silver certificates into the economy before the bankers had his brains blown out by a hit team! It's time to get rid of the buggers at the central banks for a more decent and fair world! The stockholders of the central banks need to be thrown into jail for crimes against humanity and then drawn and quartered for a start!...
So, it was 1,25 Francs for the euro. Now is 1 franc for the euro. The Real Euro Central Bank- The Swiss central Bank,the Rock of Money knowledge, having more euros than the ECB , got richer, very liquid....The more the ECB prints,the richer they go. ... Ok, they had to disclose for that many info,almost loose the banking secret, but they stash for the bad times. And there are ways for the safe haven to keep on.   The people who were betting on the Euro against the Franc were delusional years ago.  How it will backfire, this denial, in which the Eurozone is?... Well, they think they will sell more - to the Apache Indians.  And something will trickle down to the....... ( object missing).....?
The same goes with the other pals in the story- The QE Delirium Tremens syndrome is approaching, especially if you do not eat after you drink a lot.
An honest analysis of recent Greek opinion polls suggests that the radical left wing Syriza is on course to win a clear mandate to implement anti-austerity policies that are inconsistent with continued euro membership.  Syriza support is sufficient to secure a workable majority. 36% of the final vote is the approximate threshold beyond which a strong anti-austerity government is plausible. Syriza’s performance has been consistent with this in each of the last 20 opinion polls, and over 40% of the vote on average in the last five.  The electoral system may work in Syriza’s favour. It is not just that a sixth of all seats are awarded as a bonus to the winner; but also that the votes of parties with less than 3% do not count in the final analysis.  It is not over yet. The ruling New Democracy party is entitled to portray the vote as a referendum on euro exit (around 75% of Greeks strongly wish to stay in). The experience of mid-2012 suggests voters’ sight of the exit abyss could help New Democracy close the gap slightly on Syriza.  But the binary (in or out) nature of the vote decision may also help Syriza to achieve a decisive victory by squeezing out smaller parties (eg. Independent Greeks), as voters herd to the big two.  A decisive Syriza victory in such a “referendum” would lower the probability of full capitulation to Troika program requirements. Even if Syriza were to sign off on a continuation of the programme, adequate implementation appears unlikely. It was hard enough for determined centre-right politicians, never mind Syriza.  Should Syriza fail to implement the program adequately, Greece could return to the precipice. Perhaps the government would fall at or before this point and there would be a return to an implementation-minded government; perhaps Greece would exit (this is not our baseline).  Greek assets have responded negatively; bond prices suggest default probabilities have risen sharply.

Thursday, January 15, 2015

The EU will start to work when first, Greece is out and every average, say, Spanish voter can communicate with the average German voter without more than 40% lost in language issues. Cross border communication between the people, not politicians, is downright crucial. They can all spend years learning French, Slovenian, or whatever, or spend about a year learning the easiest language possible. Which? The one hears more than 50% of the time on German, Spanish, Italian, French, Portuguese, Dutch, Austrian radio. The day the average German farmer walks up to a French farmer and can actually carry out important discussions about their future as Europeans, as farmers with common interests, then there is hope. Despite the damn taboos about discussing politics in Europe which is a bar hobby by comparison in America... 
With regards to Greece ...  There is an often quoted figure of €240 billion "pumped into their economy". It wasn't. It went in and came straight out again, into the hands of desperate and grateful banksters across Europe, who, had Greece defaulted, would themselves have gone tits up.
Now. The €240 billion is most definitely still there as "extra Greek debt". And it's that extra debt that Syriza, and many Greeks, are rightly not very happy about, regardless of the "generous interest rates" they've been offered. They got no injection of capital into their economy. They instead got a gun held to their heads to accept a loan to make sure foreign banksters didn't suffer any consequences of their reckless, even criminal (Goldmann Sachs) financing of the various groups of oligarchs running the country over the past 30 years. There are many things wrong with the structure of the Greek economy. It is a monumentally corrupt place. But still, there are an equal number of things wrong with the "solutions" offered by the rest of the EU and others. And the real wrongdoers - the Greek oligarchs and the banks - have yet to suffer any meaningful consequences of their actions. Syriza would definitely see to it that that at least changed.

Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Indeed...

Indeed ... A form of  dictatorship is the only way that the EU CAN work. Fascism - where the state comes before the individual - same with the EU - the EU project comes before EVERYTHING and EVERYBODY else. It must not fail !!!! People eating out of bins in Athens....50% youth unemployment.....convicted murderers roming Europe at will.....who cares, so long as the Eurocrats get their fat pension - all in the name of 'a democratic Europe' - apparently. Let's hope the EU gradually disappears up its own backside. Is it really such a big deal for Greece to leave the Eurozone? Yes, they will default on their debts, but this is only virtual money and the debtors (ie Germany) were not going to see very much of it back in any case. There will be some months of turbulance whilst they create a new currency and agree on an exchange rate ....the average person will be better off as he will suddenly have a load of New Drachma's in his pocket ...the rich will keep their Euros in their various non-Greek accounts...but then the country can start to benefit from an influx of holiday makers and increased competitiveness for their industry, which is responsible for 60% of their exports. They will still be in the European Union and benefit from the open market....as will the rest of the Union....That's the worse case scenario for the EU. Other countries would see that life is better outside euro. Some countries would also want to exit and some countries that are meant to join would refuse to do so.   I want to think that Berlin and Paris will not cause any more pain on Greece, but on the other hand, if Greece exits and it is a success, the Francogerman monetary union can seriously collapse. So, I suspect that Berlin and Paris would still try to make life difficult for Greece outside the euro.