Showing posts with label financiar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label financiar. Show all posts

Monday, January 19, 2015

Top 10 Imports to USA
1. Oil: $389.3 billion (16.7% of total US imports)
2. Machines, engines, pumps: $311.2 billion (13.4%)
3. Electronic equipment: $303.5 billion (13%)
4. Vehicles: $253.3 billion (10.9%)
5. Medical, technical equipment: $72.1 billion (3.1%)
6. Gems, precious metals, coins: $67 billion (2.9%)
7. Pharmaceuticals: $63.4 billion (2.7%)
8. Organic chemicals: $54.7 billion (2.3%)
9. Furniture, lighting, signs: $51.4 billion (2.2%)
10. Plastics: $46.5 billion (2%)

In 2013, total U.S. trade with foreign countries was $5.02 trillion. This consisted of $2.272 trillion in exports and $2.744 trillion in imports of both goods and services. This makes the U.S. the world's third largest exporter, after the European Union (EU) and China, and the world's second largest importer, after the EU.
America is in the Global Economy. If cutoff, it would most likely collapse pretty quickly.
The markets are correct to worry about a slowdown, because the main reason for the fall in oil prices is simply a lack of demand, possibly supplemented by some geopolitical shenanigans.
Whilst the fall in the price of petrol and diesel is to be welcomed, these low crude oil prices are unlikely to last, and will depend on how much financial pain oil producing nations and energy companies can stand. Beyond 12 months or thereabouts too many energy companies will have, or be in the process of going bust. To delay bankruptcy, many energy companies are already cutting back on investment in newer more expensive sources of oil, especially for US oil shale where rig counts are already falling as US Rig Count Continues To Plunge To 10-Month Lows reveals. If this reduction in supply capacity goes too far it will result in future shortage and higher prices.
These low prices are a mixed blessing so make the most of them while they last.

Tuesday, December 10, 2013

Britain will give an extra £10bn to the European Union because of the weakness of struggling eurozone economies, it has emerged. The British contribution to the EU will rise dramatically from £30bn to £40bn over the next five years, the Office for Budget Responsibility said. It includes a surprise £2.2bn jump in funding to £8.7bn this year.  EU contributions are calculated in part according to each state’s national income.   The growth forecasts across Europe have been cut as eurozone economies, particularly Greece, France and Italy, struggle under a debt crisis, leaving Britain to make up the shortfall – costing the taxpayer an extra £1bn a year. How much longer are the taxpayers of this once great country going to tolerate the increasing financial support of this failing, tyrannical dictatorship, especially while our own public services are declining?
Are our fools and cretins of politicians, who are mostly in favor of this abomination waiting to be physically removed from Parliament?
The entire lib/lab/con are hell bent on keeping Britain in the EU, so it's time they were all removed from government!...If you take into account, the money Britain will have to spend to "welcome" the people from Bulgaria and Romania heading towards what they think is an Eldorado, it is much more than £10 billions. Thank you very much, anyway, as a French, I rather see them coming in the UK and as you are explained day after day by people living in huge houses in Surrey, with private medical care and with their children privately educated that it is for your benefit, you should call yourselves lucky....  "It includes a surprise £2.2bn jump in funding to £8.7bn this year."  This wasn't a surprise, the EU came begging for a bail out, what was surprising, was the little press it received?
This is why we are needed in the EU, to pay for all the little countries they admit, even when their finances don't meet the criteria!  From next June, we will be powerless in our decision making, the EU / US FTA is due to be signed then, this deal, gives companies complete control over us, even now, Tobacco giant Philip Morris is suing Australia for billions of dollars in lost profits because the government took action to reduce teenage smoking. Pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly is suing Canada for $500 million, just because Canada has laws to keep essential drugs affordable and the Nuclear industry is suing the German government. This is all happening in International courts, out of the public eye, via other TTiP deals. Lets get together and stop this one!  
The chancellor warned Britain is “too dependent” on weak European markets and must look to the Far East for growth.
The Euro area is forecast to shrink by 0.4 per cent this year and instability in the region is the first threat to Britain’s recovery, Mr Osborne said.
He has doubled the export finance capacity to £50bn to support British businesses that want to trade in new markets.
“The Prime Minister’s visit to China this week is the latest step in this Government’s determined plan to increase British exports to the faster growing emerging markets – something our country should have done many years ago,” Mr Osborne said.

 

Wednesday, December 4, 2013

Dynamic, fast-growing small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are driving a recovery that will transform the UK’s economic landscape, London Stock Exchange chief executive Xavier Rolet said yesterday.   Speaking at the launch of the LSE’s publication 1,000 Companies to Inspire Britain, Mr Rolet gave an upbeat assessment of their impact on economic growth.   “Vibrant, dynamic SMEs are the engine of the capitalist economy,” he said. “Large caps and the public sector have created no new net jobs over the last eight years – SMEs are powering our recovery”.   The 1,000 companies identified by the research agency Growth Intelligence have an average revenue growth of 80pc over the last three years and span 100 different sectors and every region. Far from being dead, manufacturing accounts for nearly one in five of the list – significantly more than the 105 technology companies represented.   While 267 of the companies are London-based, more come from the north of England than from the South East excluding the capital.  Mr Rolet said the debate over SME finance had focused too much on bank lending: “We need to balance bank financing with equity, building a funding ladder that starts with Business Angels and goes up through venture capitalists to private equity and the public markets”.  He praised initiatives, such as the abolition of stamp duty on AIM shares, making it easier to invest in SMEs and contributing to the strongest AIM performance since 2007 with 45 IPOs.  Featured companies include Mulberry, Addison Lee and Hunter Boot, as well as “hidden gems” specializing in everything from motor racing to animal antibiotics.

Wednesday, November 13, 2013

China and France should strengthen high-level exchanges to enhance mutual trust and deepen strategic cooperation on both bilateral and international issues, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Wednesday.
Wang arrived in France on Wednesday for a two-day visit, which will pave way for Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to France next year which marks the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries.
The trip to France is Wang's first official visit to Europe as foreign minister. He met French President Francois Hollande and Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius and exchanged views with them on hot international topics including the Syrian and Iranian issues.
"The relations between China and France go far beyond the bilateral realm and have distinct strategic importance. Therefore we should strengthen not only our bilateral cooperation but also coordination on major international issues," Wang said at a news conference.
China and France have vast potential to cooperate in areas such as urbanization, information technologies and agricultural modernization, he said.
Wang also reiterated China's position on the Syrian issue which is to support the settlement of the crisis through political means.
"China supports the second round of Geneva peace talk and the international community should create favorable conditions for various parties in Syria to reach a consensus for the settlement," he said.
French Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault will soon visit China for the preparation of the 50th anniversary of China-France relations, according to the French Foreign Minister Fabius.
He said that France has decided to further simplify the visa application procedures for Chinese citizens, which will allow them to get French visa in just two days.
Fabius also noted that the French government wants to deepen cooperation with China on environmental issues as Paris will hold the United Nations Climate Conference in 2015.

Tuesday, October 1, 2013

9 trillion dollars goes "missing" - how much of it is in The Budesbank???

There is one major flaw in the money system that I have never heard a single person mention, don't know why, maybe only I can see it, maybe it is the tin foil hat I wear that gave me it, but I am watching the most powerful man in the world clueless on how this happened, well the way I see it is that other countries like china created wealth, but did they really create it or did they borrow it.  If china created its wealth then that would have meant that it built its infrastructure and businesses internally, then it would have added wealth to the worlds circuit of money and been stable.  But if its infrastructure and businesses were borrowed from somewhere else then that is a transfer of wealth from one area to another and if the market of each depend on each other then its life is limited to the point when so much has been transferred so that it reverses in direction so starts an harmonic cycle decreasing in height until both end up even or at war, so very unstable.  This also means that's china's development was not natural as was the development in the west, now if china was many years ago about to start natural development and the west wanted to stop it or control it then this would have been a good plan. but that would have meant a Kissinger type person was about when the US and china first talked.  Anyway as china's development is not natural then it will collapse when who ever borrowed them the stuff wants it back.  And that's why I think it is all a Hollywood script, all written years ago by the likes of Kissinger. they are playing global power games using us poor mugs as pawns.   My simple high school / secondary school dropout understadning is that the United States government ( specifically the Obama adminstration) is operating one of the biggest PONZI schemes in history. OK, I have no law training or degree and I ain't no bean counter. However, this particular administration blackmails the house ( read Republicans) to constantly increase the debt limit. My understanding is that the main buyers of US Treasuries (China and the UK) are farely well maxed out on purchasing US Treasuries and there are no new substantial buyers, so, as the US $ is the main reserve currency it somehow has the right to print more money without having actual physical reserves (gold) to backup all the money it has spread aropund the world. Thus when they increase the debt limit they print more money in order for the Fed (Federal Reserve) to buy (although I understand not directly) their own older treasuries and even newly printed treasuries. His Obamaship and his sycophantic Democratic poodles are intent on going ahead with the Demoncare (the Demoncrats own it as no Republicans voted for it and the majority of the US public do not want it) despite the fact that it is going to need 1.8 trillion dollars to set it in motion. They cannot raise taxes to pay for that so they will increase the debt limit next year, print some more money. Prince Harry over at the Senate meanwhile want to increase next years budget by 1 trillion 5 billion (strange figure). Today the Whitewash House announced that it was going to bail out the forever profligate Democratically controlled bankrupt city of Detroit. Another 17 billion dollars. Has the US taxpayer agreed to that and do they have the money to even do it? Perhaps, they will print more money and also shaft the Detroit debtholders just as they did with Chrysler and GM and favoured banks and financial institutions.    I wonder what the true value of the US $ is today compared to when the investors in US Treasuries bought them. To me it's like when I bought my house for 220,000. I sold it 17 years later for 405,000 and everyone said what a great profit I made on my "real eastate investment". Except, that when I tallied up that I had paid about 370,000 in interest to the kind and gentle banks and the value of the CDN $ had declined I do not think I made anything.  If the house (which i understand is supposed to control the purse strings - although the Emperor Obama (O.K. he has some nice clothes except for nasty golfing shorts and grandpa jeans says he will not negotiate on Demoncare, the debt ceiling, the public debt, any move to cut spending, any move to reduce taxes any attempt to prevent tax increases) allows the Administration to increase the debt ceiling and stop the profligate spending the the rating agencies need to downgrade the US credit rating  (that will help exports from the US anyway and increase the cost of imports (which may provoke the use of every available US sourced  enernergy resource instead of the trillions that it costs to import from countries that hate the US anyway). The mandarins should also stop giving further credit to the US (cut up it's credit card and force it to use a current account debit card). And while they are at it maybe they should devalue the greenback.  The US currency has the motto "In God We Trust". I have news for the big spenders, that was not put on the currency to indicate that they trusted God to be the lender of last resort when they had spent their money on idols. Plus, if there is a deity I doubt that he has much trust left in the three equal but separate parts of the US government or any level of US government. OK, you can now tell me I do not know what I am talking about and how everything I said is wrong (no abusive language please, it just reflects on you, not me). However, when you are telling me how wrong I am then tell me how wonderfully brilliant and correct the US governance is.
 


....So 9 trillion dollars goes "missing" and I'm sitting here poor, eating GMO foods because I can't afford anything better... my cat has problems breathing and I don't know if I'll have the money to take her into the veterinarian but hey! at least they all the money they could ever need, they probably wipe their ass with money they are so rich.


Monday, September 16, 2013

The euro-zone economy plunged last quarter at its fastest pace in nearly four years, as weakening global activity and deep recessions along the currency zone's southern border gripped powerhouses such as Germany and France.
The report on gross domestic product from the European Union's statistics office highlights a key risk for the currency bloc as Europe's debt crisis enters its fourth year. Financial market conditions have improved markedly since last summer, due in large part to the European Central Bank's pledge to do "whatever it takes" to preserve the euro. But these gains haven't translated into new business activity.Without growing economies, Spain and Italy will likely see government-debt burdens increase even as they undertake austerity measures such as higher taxes and reduced spending. That could revive doubts in financial markets about the sustainability of their finances. GDP in the euro zone fell 0.6% in the fourth quarter compared with the third, according to the Eurostat report. Economists had expected a 0.4% drop. It was the third straight GDP decline and fifth straight quarter in which the currency bloc failed to expand. For 2012 as a whole, GDP fell 0.5% from the prior year.
GDP in Germany, Europe's largest economy, fell 0.6% from the previous quarter on declining exports and investment. France, the bloc's second biggest, declined 0.3%. Other large economies including Italy, Spain and the Netherlands contracted.
Italy's GDP plummeted 0.9% from the previous quarter, a much sharper rate of decline than the third quarter. Spain's downturn also deepened. Portugal's GDP slid 1.8% in the final three months of 2012, double the third quarter's rate of decline.
ECB officials expect the euro zone to embark on a gradual recovery later in 2013. But the source of that rebound remains elusive. Record-high unemployment in the euro zone has weighed on consumer spending, while fiscal austerity measures are expected to weaken state spending and employment in many euro countries this year. Borrowing costs for small businesses remain elevated in Spain and Italy. In Germany, where unemployment is much lower than other parts of the region, the economy appears to be bouncing back quickly with business surveys signaling a return to growth this quarter, aided in part by stronger exports to Asia. Weakness in late 2012 "is likely to be a springboard for a small V-shaped rebound" as soon as this quarter, said Berenberg Bank economist Christian Schulz.
But surveys of purchasing managers and other business leaders suggest France continues to contract this quarter. French industry has lost global competitiveness in recent years as its labor costs rose, economists say. A raft of tax increases imposed by President François Hollande is adding to the headwinds facing the economy.
The French government is preparing to at least halve its 0.8% GDP growth forecast for this year, officials familiar with the matter told The Wall Street Journal earlier this month. The smaller size of the economy and fall in tax receipts is also derailing government plans to cut the budget deficit to 3% of GDP this year.
"In order to maintain its position at the epicenter of the euro area in economic terms, France has a lot of work to do," said analysts at J.P. Morgan JPM -0.94%in a research note.

Monday, July 15, 2013

...confidence of investors strong...

France's fiscal problems were pressing "owing to the uncertain growth outlook and the ongoing eurozone crisis, even assuming no wavering in commitment to fiscal consolidation", Fitch said.
Since Socialist Francois Hollande became president in 2012, his government has raised taxes and implemented targeted reforms and spending cuts to try to whittle down the country's huge debt load.
But with the eurozone crisis still alive, and the currency bloc still mired in recession, the measures have proven ineffective and unemployment soared to a 15-year high of 10.9pc in May.
"The weaker economic outlook is the primary factor behind increases in the budget deficit and France" needing more time to meet EU rules on government spending, it said.
Fitch forecasts that the French economy will contract by 0.3pc in 2013 and then return to slight growth of 0.7pc in 2014.
This is more pessimistic than the government's outlook of 0.1pc growth this year and 1.2pc in 2014.
French Finance Minster Pierre Moscovici brushed off the downgrade, maintaining that "French debt is among the safest and most liquid in the eurozone". With the confidence of investors strong, French borrowing prices were low and "this confidence reinforces the government's conviction that its strategy is the right one", he said.... Fitch, which is part French-owned, had warned in its previous appraisal that France had reached the very limit of being able to hold on to its top grade grail.  But with Fitch now expecting public debt to peak next year at 96pc of gross domestic product, the agency said it had no choice but to lower the mark, though with a stable outlook.  "The agency commented at the time of its previous rating review that this was the limit of the level of indebtedness consistent with France retaining its AAA status assuming debt was firmly placed on a downward path from 2014."
France's debt ratio, the agency added, was "significantly higher" than the AAA median of 49%.  

Sunday, July 14, 2013

BLOWIG HOT AIR ... Greece is far form being OK...Greeks are though...

GERMANY BLOWING HOT AIR - "Greece is getting on track," German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble said in Brussels as the meeting ended. "It is not easy for them."  The agreement reached on Monday night foresees an initial payment of €2.5 billion this month to be followed up by more payments in subsequent months. Greece's creditors are primarily concerned by the slow progress Athens has made on downsizing its public sector, with thousands of additional layoffs pending. The country's privatization program has also generated much less cash than expected, most recently as a result of the government's inability to find a buyer for the natural gas company DEPA. Tax reform and the pursuit of tax dodgers is another area where Greece's creditors have demanded improvement. "It's time to step up the momentum of reform in Greece," said European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn.  Still, the public sector cuts are controversial in Greece, with thousands of teachers and municipal workers taking to the streets of Athens on Monday and Tuesday. Some 12,500 state employees are to be placed on administrative leave by the end of September with an additional 12,500 to join them by the end of the year. They will receive 75 percent of their salary for eight months. If they haven't found a new job by then, they will be unemployed.
There is concern that the additional cuts could further damage the country's fragile economy which, while slowly improving, is still stuck in its sixth straight year of recession. Economists forecast that the country could return to growth next year -- a tiny increase of just 0.6 percent -- but some worry that dividing up aid payments could derail the slow recovery. The agreement to continue funding Greece, however, was by no means unexpected. Despite widespread concern with Athens' slow pace of reform, there is little appetite for risking a return of the euro crisis by withholding funding. The situation in Portugal has made European finance ministers even more cautious. Political instability in Lisbon last week recently triggered a spike in the interest rate on Portuguese sovereign bonds. The country was able to avoid a collapse of the government, but Lisbon must nevertheless push through an additional €5 billion austerity package in the coming months, and there are concerns that political worries might return.
Greece too has seen its share of political instability in recent weeks, with the government of Prime Minister Antonis Samaras almost collapsing due to its sudden and controversial shutdown of public broadcaster ERT. One of the parties in his three-party coalition left, leaving him with a tiny three-seat majority in parliament.
It is unclear whether France's proposal to provide direct aid to Greek banks will gain much traction. Some €60 billion of the €500 billion ESM fund has been made available to provide direct assistance to euro-zone banks that need it. But it remains controversial. Furthermore, European leaders only recently agreed to involve shareholders, creditors and individual countries should large banks find themselves in need of help. It remains unclear whether that agreement applies to existing cases like Greece.

Tuesday, June 25, 2013

The only hope for Italy is to leave the EuroZone now - otherwise = bankruptcy!

Thousands of workers and unemployed people marched in Rome on Saturday to protest against record unemployment and call on Enrico Letta's two-month-old government to deliver more than empty rhetoric on the issue.
The rally, organized by the country's three largest unions was the first major protest since Letta's broad, left-right coalition took office following an inconclusive election in February.
Italian unemployment rose to 12% in April, the highest level on record, and joblessness among people under 24 is at an all-time high above 40%.
Union chiefs, speaking before a flag-waving crowd estimated at more than 100,000 by the organizers, criticized Letta for what they called a lack of action on an urgent problem.
"We can't accept these continuous promises that aren't translated into decisions that give a change of direction," said Susanna Camusso, leader of the country's largest union CGIL.

Luigi Angeletti, head of the UIL, said the country could not afford the piecemeal approach to policy adopted so far, especially when the ruling coalition is so fragile...The unionists called on the government to intervene to prevent plans by white-goods manufacturer Indesit to lay off 1,400 workers in one of the most recent labor disputes....
Big deficits in time of recession are nothing new. They are not desirable, but calling them "dangerous" is ridiculous. The only way to reduce them is through growth, which isn't going to happen with taking so much money out of the economy. Growth has got its own problems, I don't think a society can run for ever on people/states buying stuff they don't really need with money they have really got, but the present "solution" isn't going to work. It is indiscriminate cutting, with no thought for the cost this "cutting" is storing up for the future. The present crew hasn't got the skills, imagination, intelligence to think out of their narrow ideology. They still think putting state services to tender to private businesses is going to solve all. It isn't....
Mediobanca, Italy’s second biggest bank, said its “index of solvency risk” for Italy was already flashing warning signs as the worldwide bond rout continued into a second week, pushing up borrowing costs.
“Time is running out fast,” said Mediobanca’s top analyst, Antonio Guglielmi, in a confidential client note. “The Italian macro situation has not improved over the last quarter, rather the contrary. Some 160 large corporates in Italy are now in special crisis administration.” The report warned that Italy will “inevitably end up in an EU bail-out request” over the next six months, unless it can count on low borrowing costs and a broader recovery. Emphasizing the gravity of the situation, it compared the crisis with when the country was blown out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992 despite drastic austerity measures.
Italy’s €2.1 trillion (£1.8 trillion) debt is the world’s third largest after the US and Japan. Any serious stress in its debt markets threatens to reignite the eurozone crisis. This may already have begun after the US Federal Reserve signaled last week that it will begin to drain dollar liquidity from the global system.


Monday, June 24, 2013

Click links ...very interesting ...

The most remarkable story of the day comes from Ireland. Secret tapes released this morning give the clearest signal yet that senior bankers at Anglo Irish Bank deliberately tricked the Irish government into a rescue deal on 2008.
The recordings, released by the Irish Independent today, show John Bowe and Peter Fitzgerald discussing their request for €7bn of emergency funding to keep Anglo Irish running, once the financial crisis struck. The final bill was €30bn, helping to precipitate Ireland's own bailout. There have long been suspicions that Anglo's management knew the full scale of the crisis and hid it from the Dublin government, who fatefully decided to pick up the bill on the taxpayers' behalf. Our correspondent in Ireland, Henry McDonald, explains: On tape Fitzgerald asks Bowe how did he arrive at the figure of €7bn to which the latter replies: "Just as Drummer [the then Anglo Irish Bank CEO David Drumm now in exile and disgrace in Boston] would say, 'picked it out my arse.'" The conversation also tends to back up the view that Anglo Irish bankers knew that €7bn would never be enough to save the bank but once they had hoodwinked the Dublin government the taxpayer would keep picking up the tab. In their exchange Bowe says: "Yeah, and that number is seven, but the reality is that actually we need more than that. But you know the strategy here is you pull them in, you get them to write a big cheque and they have to keep, they have to have support their money, you know."
And you can listen to the recordings on the Irish Independent's site (the third recording, 'strategy', is the real humdinger).

Thursday, May 30, 2013

In Portugal, pessimism about the country's chances for prospering in the euro zone is growing as the economy remains depressed, even though Portugal has done everything asked of it under its €78 billion ($101 billion) bailout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. Budget cuts have hit domestic demand hard, while exports aren't growing much amid slumps in other euro-zone economies, including Spain, Portugal's largest customer. Indeed, the Portuguese economy is expected to contract for the third consecutive year in 2013.   This past Thursday, at one of the many recent public debates on the euro. Mr. Ferreira do Amaral faced off against prominent Socialist politician and euro supporter João Galamba. "I believe we should openly discuss all the alternatives there are for us to exit this crisis," Mr. Galamba said, though adding: "Leaving the euro isn't a solution, unless we want to isolate ourselves completely from the rest of the European Union, which would be a catastrophe."  The debate sparked a lively discussion in the audience, with many arguing for a return to the former national currency, the escudo. "People say if we leave the euro our salaries and savings will fall, and we will find ourselves isolated again; but how is that different from now?" said Nuno Pires, a 30-year-old business consultant who attended. "I now think we have a better chance of recovery if we leave," he added.  Mr. Ferreira do Amaral, a 64-year-old economics professor at the Technical University of Lisbon and a former finance-ministry official, says the only hope is to return to a national currency that would devalue sharply, making Portuguese products cheaper abroad and spurring exports.  Under Portugal's 2011 bailout, deep public spending cuts, tax increases and labor-market overhauls were supposed to attract investment and spur economic growth by this year. But the benefits aren't in sight. And slumping economic output is keeping Portugal's deficit wide, as austerity forces the government to cut spending and employment further.  "We are now at a stage where it is becoming clear the austerity policy isn't working despite all our efforts," says Mr. Ferreira do Amaral says "The next step is for us to realize the euro simply isn't sustainable for Portugal." The idea of leaving the euro makes many uneasy. In a televised debate, ex-Finance Minister João Salgueiro warned that even talk of leaving may harm Portugal. "All the investments that come in will be at a higher cost," he said.Mr. Ferreira do Amaral is getting some high-profile backers. This month, Supreme Court of Justice President Luís António Noronha Nascimento called for Portugal and other Southern European countries to quit the euro, warning the gap between Europe's richer and poorer states will keep widening otherwise.Whether the debate gains traction depends on the economy, analysts say. Portugal's government insists the long-awaited recovery will arrive in 2014, but many economists doubt that. If the recession continues, politicians will need to enact even more budget cuts to meet EU deficit targets. "It may become too hard for politicians to sell austerity measure after austerity measure," says Antonio Costa Pinto, political scientist at the University of Lisbon. "This could create the perfect environment for a shift of ideas."...A version of this article appeared May 28, 2013, on page A16 in the U.S. edition of The Wall Street Journal, with the headline: Idea of Euro Exit Finds Currency in Portugal.

Friday, May 3, 2013

YESSSS.... DOWN WITH THE 4th Reich and Bruxelles Natzies !!!

Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, has declared his party is on course to change the face of British politics in the wake of its strongest performance in local elections, making a series of gains across England...In the biggest surge by a fourth party in England since the second world war, Ukip averaged 26% of the vote in council wards where it stood, according to a BBC estimate.
The Ukip success saw Farage's party deprive the Conservatives of control of Lincolnshire county council after gaining 16 seats to become the main opposition. The Tories also lost control of Gloucestershire, where Ukip gained three seats and Labour gained four.This is fantastic news. Anything that pulls votes away from the Tories or pulls the Tories away from the center will damage them. See what happened to the republicans in the USA: dragged further away from the political center by the Tea Party, they made themselves unelectable. And single-issue parties will never have any long term impact in British politics. GO UKIP!...Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, has indicated Ukip are not looking for power - but influence.   He compared the role of UKip to that of the SDP in the 1980s which, he argued, pushed Labour into a rightwards turn. Tony Blair, he said, was an "SDP Prime Minister."
He said: "I accept when it comes to a General Election we have a problem, that is the first-past-the-post system.
He said of the SDP: "They fundamentally changed the entire Labour Party - Foot and Benn and the hard left were all gone and the new modernising Labour Party ... with people like Peter Mandelson in strong positions.  "If ever there was a pressure group in British politics it was the SDP."   The Ukip leader said his goal was to "fundamentally change" British politics, insisting it "can happen".
Mr Farage told the programme he did not feel he was a Tory but supported the reforms made in the 1980s.
"We need radical reform and I am absolutely certain the getting back control of our country ... there is now a settled majority out there that wants us to get our country back," he said.

Tuesday, April 2, 2013

Some thoughts about EUROPE - The once-booming former Yugoslav republic was plunged into recession by the economic crisis, which dented demand for its exports of manufactured goods, machinery and transport equipment, chemicals and food. The economy is expected to shrink by at least 2% this year. But the statistic that has everyone concerned is the €7bn of bad loans on Slovenian banks' books, an amount equivalent to around one fifth of the country's total GDP. The rating agency Moody's has already downgraded Slovenia's second largest bank, and the IMF has estimated that the government needs to recapitalize the nation's lenders to the tune of at least €1bn. Perhaps most worrying is the fact that the Slovenian prime minister, Alenka BratuÅ¡ek, was moved to say this week that her country would not be seeking a bailout. Bond investors are not taking any chances. Prices of Slovenian government debt have plunged, sending yields rising by an eye-watering 0.8% on Wednesday alone. Slovenia's 10-year debt is now yielding around 6.15%, not far from the 6.49% yield on 10-year bonds from Portugal, which is already in a bailout program. Laurence Wormald at SunGard Financial Systems said: "The evidence suggests that action will be needed by Slovenia within the next two, three months. However, a bail-in is likely to be less drastic than the one in Cyprus, since Slovenian banks are much less leveraged than those of Cyprus. Also Slovenia is different from Cyprus in one crucial respect, in that Slovenia has not created a large offshore banking center." After Slovenia, who's next? The research house Capital Economics has its money on Malta and Luxembourg....
 
I think there are only 2 options left:
1. Either a split up into a northern and southern Euro-zone
2. or Germans, leave the Euro-zone. This would mean to forgive debt in the amount of about 1,2 trillion Euros, but I think it is worth it. A growing number of Germans is sooo fed up with this Euro-debacle.  Naive and stupid as we actually are, we initially thought this was meant to be a peace project. And now take a look around. A bunch of incompetent Eurocrats turned this beautiful idea into a devastating nightmare. Before we knew what was happening we were catapulted to the helm of Europe and everyone expected us to wave a magic wand to solve the crisis.
Unfortunately we didn't have a magic wand and so we proposed the same recipe for southern Europe which put Germany back on track 10 years ago. Now it doesn't work for a number of intricate reasons, and suddenly Merkel gets depicted with a Hitler mustache, with the German economy morphed into a German Panzer conquering Europe - accused to have sold our products at gunpoint to helpless southern Europeans.
I think it is time for all Europeans to leave this Euro-zone-kindergarten to avoid further misunderstandings.

 

Friday, December 7, 2012

HANNOVER, Germany—Germany's ruling conservative Christian Democratic Union party closed ranks behind Angela Merkel on Tuesday with a solid demonstration of unity, boosting her bid for a third term as chancellor by nearly unanimously re-electing her as party leader. During the last major gathering of the party before the federal election in September, Ms. Merkel won 98% of CDU delegates' votes to remain chairwoman. It was her best result in seven consecutive party leadership elections. German Chancellor Angela Merkel delivers a speech on Tuesday during the CDU federal party meeting in Hannover, Germany. Ms. Merkel, 58 years old, is seeking a third term as chancellor. Her approval ratings are close to 70% and in public-opinion polls, a clear majority of voters prefer Ms. Merkel as chancellor over her leftist challenger, Peer Steinbrück of the Social Democrats. The most recent polls give Ms. Merkel's ruling conservatives a smaller lead of some nine points over the SPD. Despite Ms. Merkel's popularity, her party, polling at 39%, still not be able to form a government after the next election. Her junior coalition partner, the pro-business Free Democrats party, is in a tailspin and has so little support in opinion polls that the party will struggle to gain enough votes to win seats in parliament next year. Ms. Merkel's popularity is based on support by ordinary Germans for her handling of the euro-zone debt crisis. She has pursued a cautious approach aimed at protecting German interests that is often criticized abroad as foot-dragging that just extends Europe's pain. In a one-hour nationally televised speech, she vowed to stay the course. "We have brought Germany through the crisis stronger than the country was when it began," she said. "I want the euro to emerge stronger from the crisis than it was."

Monday, November 26, 2012

Let me get this right....France wants more CAP money to prop up an unsustainable domestic farming culture based on 18th century methods. Germany does not want to shell out billions of Euro to pay for Greece, Spain et all, and is trying to fudge a deal until Angela can try to get back in. Spain is falling apart and refuses help as it would require to give up sovereignty, a precursor for joining and is breaking up anyway. Italy needs the cash to help its poor south, which by the way has been poor since biblical times, and Ireland , Portugal and Greece, poor bastards, are saddled with debt they cannot afford.
And that's just the biggies.
The whole concept is bankrupt both on a financial, social and an ideological basis, and on top of that, they are corrupt, never having passed an audit.
Why are we even talking to them?...
Talks on a new European Union budget have collapsed after David Cameron won German support in a row with France about his demands for more cuts in spending. The Prime Minister accused Brussels of 'living in a parallel universe' and said there could not be a 'deal at any cost.'  Speaking at the end of the failed summit Mr Cameron said: "We're not going to be tough on budgets at home just to come here and sign up to an increase. "Frankly the deal on the table was just not good enough. It wasn't good enough for Britain and neither was it good enough for a number of countries. "In the UK we are cutting admin budgets by as much as a third, civil service staff by 10 per cent in two years. None of this has been easy. Meanwhile Brussels continues to exist as if it is in a parallel universe."

Thursday, November 22, 2012

This EU budget stuff can come across as pretty dull and confusing. To lighten things up a bit, we will turn to the universal language of football. So meet the EU budget 'Veto Team' - the eleven EU leaders that so far have threatened to veto the EU budget unless they get a better deal. Needless to say, given that this is its first outing, the eleven-man team is far from a cohesive unit - with lots of big egos and players who play for themselves.
·       David Cameron leads the line, ready to strike and seen as the most likely to pull the trigger on any veto.
·       Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt at right winger hugging the line (sticking to his guns), happy to put in a shift for the team and more likely to offer an assist/support for Cameron than to deliver the final blow himself.
·       French President François Hollande is the mercurial trickster playing between the lines but not quite sure of his role or his aims. Ultimately a selfish player (as are many of the others) but who’s own personal gain could ultimately be detrimental to the rest of the team.
·       Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti is playing the stoic holding role, refusing to budge and occasionally gesticulating wildly at the referee, although never actually getting into the danger zone at the forefront of the action. More likely to break up play and provide a stumbling block than deliver a knockout blow to the opposition. Unlike the rest of the team, not here on merit (elected) but parachuted in by the powers above.
·       Portuguese Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho takes on the Cristiano Ronaldo role as a marauding left winger and not just because of the nationality. His red line that Herman Van Rompuy's proposal is unacceptable makes him more of a threat than many expected. Under pressure to perform from his home fans (electorate) he needs to put in a big showing – the question remains though whether he will rise to the challenge or crumble under the pressure.
·       Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte is playing the 'box-to-box midfielder' role, akin to the days of Johan Cruyff's 'total football'. Usually more inclined to side with Germany (the opposition), Rutte finds himself dragged end-to-end with action not quite sure where he should be or where he is best suited. One things for sure, his hometown team (the VVD party) would love to see him score.
·       Belgian Prime Minister Elio Di Rupo, naturally inclined to the left, find himself at left back. His demands are relatively minor and he’s not a regular in this team (usually part of the core EU group who’s views align closely). He’ll put up a fight for a bit but he’s not a star player in this game.
·       The towering centre-back, Danish Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt provides a solid spine to the team. Not one of the more flashy players but they know their job and what they want out of it (a clean sheet). Unlikely to score (pull the veto) but will definitely provide a blocker against any increases in the budget.
·       Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann is another unfamiliar member of the team. Stuck in at centre back because of its experience in the eurozone crisis and playing a key blocking role in minimising the liabilities. Unfortunately, its aims are different in this game and as with Hollande its may end up scoring an own goal (getting more spending in the budget).
·       Romanian President Traian Basescu, at right back, is there as a late replacement and now a token entry. The previous incumbent (Romanian Prime Minister Victor Ponta) looked set for an interesting game, but after the substitution this role is unlikely to provide much action.
·       Latvian Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis is in goal because, well, the smallest kid always gets stuck with the worst job.

Monday, November 19, 2012

Europe's leaders must forge a deal this week to help Greece get "back on its feet", the managing director of the International Monetary Find has said, as disagreement continued over how to tackle the country's mounting debt pile. ...Speaking of angry Germans, Jens Weidmann, the head of Germany's central bank, has warned that putting the ECB in charge of eurozone bank supervision risks compromising its primary goal of price stability. ....Writing in German daily Handelsblatt, Mr Weidmann warned that forming a "hasty" bank union would be counterproductive, and that leaders should opt for "thoroughness over speed". Mr Weidmann also said that a union would require a mechanism to wind down and restructure banks that should be funded by the lenders themselves. Are the IMF and the EU institutionally deaf, the 'fat lady' has sung her self hoarse, rolled over and died of old age. Maybe they have not taken the trouble to keep up with events.
The ordinary Greek people on the street know now what ever happens, they will collectively be accountable for many, many decades for the debt put on them by all these bailouts. They should have got out three or four years ago, but have been deliberately sucked into this vacuum and been enslaved by the bankers, and dare i say, their own country men and women who have repeatedly refused to pay their taxes and now have deviously moved their vast fortunes out of the country....When I read " Without the option of currency devaluation", I had to laugh.
France could (and perhaps should) consider leaving the corrupt club and then she COULD devalue her currency which would make her more competitive.... And...what about slashing the IMF ' s salaries by 75% and give it to the Greeks. The IMF'S staff will still have a more than decent living and , for once, they will have put their monies where their mouths are . As a special gesture, the Greeks could have Lagarde too, as she is useless, we would, then, have killed two birds with one stone.

Friday, November 2, 2012

ECB president Mario Draghi has expressed strong support for a "currency commissioner", saying it would strengthen the euro.Spanish prime minister Mariano Rajoy has criticised the suggestion that eurozone countries should surrender sovereignty and agree to the creation of a European Commissioner with new powers over national budgets of euro countries.  Speaking at a press conference with Mario Monti, Italy's leader, in Madrid, Rajoy argued that this was only acceptable as part of a full package of closer integration.
Rajoy said:
This is an idea, that considered on its own, I personally don't like. As part of a variety of measures for fiscal union, it could be considered.
The Bank of Israel has surprised the markets by cutting interest rates by a quarter-point, to 2%.
The Bank of Israel made the move after concluding that Israel's economy could struggle in early 2013 – and cited the eurozone crisis as a key factor...In a statement, it said:
Against the background of the debt crisis in Europe, the level of economic risk from around the world remains high, and with it the concerns over negative effects on the local economy.
It's the latest in a string of rate cuts by central banks around the globe, as concern has grown about the world economy.
None of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a cut, and the move has sent the shekel falling against the dollar.
Israeli shekel drops as central bank unexpectedly lops 25 BP off interest rate, taking it to 2%.

Monday, October 22, 2012

At least the Greeks, the Spanish and the Portugese are starting to fight against the rape of their countries by the EU and the IMF.
Unlike the spineless Brits who just bend over and take it, from Cameron and his Atlantic Bridge coterie.
The fire-sale is under way, and the taxpayer will be paying for the largesse enjoyed by the shareholders and parasites of the multinationals.
It isn't going to be a two-speed Europe; it is going to be Greater Germany and the rest. And sooner or later, if Angie is still in office, she is going to be kowtowing to a (German) president of Europe. Only vassal states need apply. And they have. It's just that one or two are choking on the small print....Anthee Carassava is on the ground in Athens and she writes:
Thursday's protests are part of a 24-hour nationwide strike the country's two biggest labour unions have organised as European leaders meet in Brussels to decide the fate of the single currency. It is the second job walk out millions of Greeks have taken to in three weeks; the 20th since the financial crisis here erupted nearly three years ago.
“Just once,” said Yannis Panagopoulos, head of the GSEE private sector union, “the government should reject [international] lenders’ absurd demands. “Agreeing to catastrophic measures means driving society to despair and the consequences as well as the protests will be indefinite.”
From taxi drivers to doctors and diplomats, the strike is expected to paralyze an already suffocating economy. Ships remained docked, hospitals were operating on skeleton staff, and dozens of domestic and international flights face cancellations leaving travelers stranded as air traffic controllers joined the protest, keeping aircraft grounded and the country isolated from the rest of the world for three hours.
At least 4000 police have been deployed in the city centre alone. At least 12 buses of riot police and three water canons were propped outside parliament, shielding the building -- a favourite target of protests -- from militant demonstrators.

Sunday, October 21, 2012

Just to complete my daily bit of good-natured German-bashing...
German media (in a complete misrepresentation of the facts) says the Greeks work less and retire early... yet the EU's own figures show that the average Greek works many more hours P/A than the average German.
And they overlook that Greece is largely in the trouble it is, because the one-size-fits-all interest rate of the Euro is essentially decided by Germany, for Germany.
Financial houses (many German) were lending to Greece at the same rate as they would lend to Germany.
Where was the German discipline there?
As Schäuble mentions, the population of Europe are not going to agree to German domination of Sovereign states until they have been "convinced" that the measures are necessary.
This is where the lack of leadership in solving the Euro crisis comes into play.
Markets are panicking because everyone is being told we need German leadership in Europe but we don't have it.
Merkel keeps going to meetings. Still no solid solution.
This game will continue to be played, and markets continue to take a hit, until European leaders BEG for Germany to take what she wants in return for German financial underwriting. UPDATE - European leaders have agreed a timetable to set up a single eurozone-wide banking supervisor run by the European Central Bank over the course of next year, a rapid pace that marks a victory for a French-led group that had pushed for a quick first step towards a banking union for the single currency.
But at an EU summit that stretched into the early hours of Friday morning, leaders failed to agree on the second key step in the process: when the eurozone’s €500bn rescue fund will be able to start injecting cash directly into failing European banks, giving in to German resistance.